Victoria Derby

[nat]

There seem to be a lot of NZ bred and trained horses trying out for the Derby this year most of them are new to Australia and have great form for a handfull of races. Who are the ones to look out for that could make a big impact.

[aussiebreno]

Love the Vic Derby! Best Derby in Australia and the heat/final series adds interest!
Royal Verdict I was going to mention as a lay - being first up, but after opening $3.20 and coming into $2.90 I think the smart money has come.
I haven't been through the form yet - they come from everywhere so the heats aren't really a betting proposition for mine - but I like Jadahson from the pole in the first heat. Vladimir the Great will be the interesting runner in that.
Keayang Cullen is the best 3yo we have seen this season as far as I'm concerned (Royal Verdict hasnt raced yet so hard to guage). The Gold Ace has opened $2.10 favourite - if he wins this and draws the front next week the Derby will be his - just has to bring his NZ form. However @ $4.40 and probably more race-night I will be on KC. Watch for Thats So Irish to sneak up from 3 the pegs late and run a place at big odds!
In the third heat Excel Stride will be winning imo. Holds the ace, can lead or hand up to OMM. Sushi Sushi may have to death seat it which isnt really his go - would be a shame if he missed out on qualifying though.
My tip for the final, being patriotic, is Keayang Cullen to beat Royal Verdict and Excel Stride.

[nat]

Yeh I really like Royal Verdict and I'm with you on your concerns 1st up, Keayang Cullen is an exciting prospect I'm out to sea on Jadahson dont know if he's good or above average and I do like Sushi Sushi as a race horse it's just these Kiwi raider I dont really know about.

[aussiebreno]

The kiwis have won just about every Derby bar Divisive and LPW this century. Normally they only need to send two or three over but this year it seems even their 2nd stringers are trying to get in on the action (Empirific, Matt Maguire)
But the main reason for the increase in the NZ Breeds is that the Aussie owners/trainers have went out and bought some Kiwi 3yos - God Send, Ransom Olds, Im Theliberator, Vladamir The Great, Beau Starlight, Glengowan and The Muskeg Express.
The two proper Kiwi hopes are Major Mark and even more threateningly The Gold Ace.
Thats 11 of the 33 horses. Then you have horses like The Phantom and Bledisloe who may be NZ bred but are 'Aussies'.

[buster]

empreayn a second stringer? ppleaseeeeeee go and watch some replays

gold ace opened 2.6 and was backed into 2.1

[aussiebreno]

Gold Ace >>> Empirific. Therefore Empirific is a 2nd stringer.
Major Mark has been across here before and has only had the two runs this season - bound to improve a lot more than Empirific.
I'm not saying Empirific isnt a good horse, because that would be lying but he is no Courage Under Fire, Bellas Boy etc. Maybe he is a Courage To Rule. He has no gate speed which has him behind the 8ball from the start. I cannot see him winning the Vic Derby.

[mango]

Hi Aussiebreno

For the 1st heat i'll take your second stringer Empirific to beat Vladmir The Great

2nd heat The Gold Ace to win over Hez Matt Maguire

3rd heat Sushi Sushi to win over The Muskeg Express

And the others of note to look out for will be Royal Verdict, Keayang Cullen, Devilish Smile, Our Major Mark, Excel Stride.

If The Muskeg Express makes the final he will be my pick to take it out.

[Don Corleone]

Heat One Empirific & Vladmir The Great
Heat Two Gold Ace & Bledisloe
Heat Three The Muskeg Express & Sushi Sushi

Gold Ace to win final.

Now to let everyone know.............I haven't pick the winner of the Vic Derby for about 12 years, so my forms not good!!

[buster]

yes fair enough aussie, i thought you meant he was just making up numbers, if he drew 1 in the final and gold ace 13 then he would win

but that said i did back gold ace as i think hes a superstar

[Love Of Courage]

Hello Hello,

Could someone please give me an idea as to the price that Ransom Olds was likely purchased for. I have a close relative and would appreciate your feeback as to the likely sale price.

Regards,

Sue

[Flashing Red]

Providing her comes back to the form he showed later on in his 2yo season, I think Excel Stride will win hit heat, and as with any Victorian Derby, gets a somewhat decent draw, will win the final IMHO.

[MasterK]

Emperific and Matt Maguire and in no way 2nd stringers. Emperific has gone some very good races here in NZ. Was unlucky on cup day when he galloped and has gone some very good races in Auckland and some pretty bad draws. Gold Ace has had pretty good draws the whole way along which although isnt the reason hes won all his races but it certainly helped. He did run a massive race to win the sire stakes on cup day. Matt Maguire has had a few issues in the past but is one of the best 3year olds when hes on his game. Ran close to the track record at Ausburton the thursday after cup day on a track known for speed. 1:54 i believe. I'm thinking that in all the heats it seems like the New Zealand owned and trained horses should come out on top. Sure you Australians have some good 3 year olds but I really do think we're once again a step a head.

[buster]

think your right masterk, the aussies have been racing in c0's and trials...the kiwis have been racing in group 1's for a month

flash i trust you ddint see the trial at menangle with excel stride? he did gallop but heard muskeg was ultra impressive

[mango]

Hi Masterk
Thats why i included them in my picks, i went through there form and watched a few replays and with the right trip either of them can win.

Hi Buster
I like excell stride and i hope he makes the final but his downfall could be that he is a little head strong.

[Flashing Red]

think your right masterk, the aussies have been racing in c0's and trials...the kiwis have been racing in group 1's for a month

flash i trust you ddint see the trial at menangle with excel stride? he did gallop but heard muskeg was ultra impressive

No I didn't.
Missing the race due to rain, flooding etc and unable to get the work in I haven't been as diligent as other years on the competition....

[nat]

Don't go blowing your horns to early and discount Royal Verdict he came from obscurity several times last season to win the race's that count and he is in a good camp and Keayang Cullen untapped potential and hasn't been tested yet

[MasterK]

So do you Australians have a superstable thing? guess it must have started.
finished 2nd in the NZ one and would love to have tried yours.
Yea anyone of the NZ 3year olds have a good shot of winning.
I'm a big fan of The Muskeg Express. Its a good horse once its going right

[buster]

i love royal verdict, but im just concerned hes only been trialling and although he should find the front in the heats, dornauff doesnt exactly try too hard in the heats of these big races

excel stride i do also like but you can't love them all and i think a few of these are better than him...i dont know what happened between morrie and the owners but looks a bit harsh to have sacked him

[aussiebreno]

Don't go blowing your horns to early and discount Royal Verdict he came from obscurity several times last season to win the race's that count and he is in a good camp and Keayang Cullen untapped potential and hasn't been tested yet
When did Royal Verdict ever come from obscurity? He was always favourite or well-favoured to win. In his first defeat he was first up after just a 7week let-up and was as fat as a pig. In December Dornauf was quoted in an article as wanting to race him first up on Jan13. He didnt trial until the 17th so, presumably, is behind where Dornauf wanted him (No fault of Dornauf - the 2yo Crown is too late in the season and trainers cant be blamed for chasing the riches, but if trainers want to look after there horse they then have to give them a decent break - meaning early 3yo racing is pretty bare). His other two defeats were driver error, a soft as butter run in the Vicbred Semi and Dornauf trying to give him an easy time and not counting on Abettorpunt sprouting wings down the straight in the Crown Semi. So both reasons combined, Dornauf wanting to give him an easy run in a heat and the horse being first up and I wouldn't want to be taking the shorts. Even though I called Emprific a Kiwi 2nd stringer he is certaintly better than Abettorpunt and Modern Slippa so can easily run down Royal Verdict while Jadahson will have a great sit on him and is a live chance as well - imo. That said, Royal Verdict has proven he is the best of his age and I'd love to see him win the heat and final.

@MasterK - the superstable is just something Ive done as there is a lot of interest in the Derby and the Trotting on the forum.

[MasterK]

So has it already started or not?
would be keen to have a go if it hasnt

[aussiebreno]

So has it already started or not?
would be keen to have a go if it hasnt

Hasnt started mate, post your stable in my thread or private message it to me.

[Flashing Red]

When does it close? Could I get them in tomorrow?

[aussiebreno]

When does it close? Could I get them in tomorrow?

Yeah tomorow is fine - just get it in before the first Derby heat! I'll go add that in the thread now.

[nat]

Are these name alterations for NZ horses getting out of hand EMPIRIFIC NZ (EMPYREAN NZ) for example surley they could have NZT for NZ Trained then if they are exported to stay in OZ maybe alter it in someway. Gees if your not tunned in and on the general punter wouldnt know these horse or be able look them up even if you have been watchin NZ racing on Sky not even a late name change listed in the race fields anymore. What will happen if EMPYREAN NZ was to win the Derby a horse with 2 names one in OZ EMPIRIFIC NZ and one in NZ EMPYREAN NZ what a joke cannot wait to see if Ima Blacks A Fake or Our Ronerail wins the Inter Dominion this year.

[aussiebreno]

Are these name alterations for NZ horses getting out of hand EMPIRIFIC NZ (EMPYREAN NZ) for example surley they could have NZT for NZ Trained then if they are exported to stay in OZ maybe alter it in someway. Gees if your not tunned in and on the general punter wouldnt know these horse or be able look them up even if you have been watchin NZ racing on Sky not even a late name change listed in the race fields anymore. What will happen if EMPYREAN NZ was to win the Derby a horse with 2 names one in OZ EMPIRIFIC NZ and one in NZ EMPYREAN NZ what a joke cannot wait to see if Ima Blacks A Fake or Our Ronerail wins the Inter Dominion this year.
I think Empyrean has had an actual name change - meaning that when it goes back to NZ will race as Empirific.

[nat]

Hi aussie

My mistake on that one have tired eyes (maybe brain), they did list them all once no matter how small a change I think they shouldn't alter them unless they are exported and have them noted in some other way especially now we have a lot of international live racing.

[aussiebreno]

Hi aussie

My mistake on that one have tired eyes (maybe brain), they did list them all once no matter how small a change I think they shouldn't alter them unless they are exported and have them noted in some other way especially now we have a lot of international live racing.
Not necisarily your mistake, could well go back to NZ and race as Empyrean, im just going off harness website where it says Emprific (Late Empyrean). I've seen that done with Australian horses - for an example McRaes Mate used to be called something else for its first couple of starts.
I really don't get the reasoning changing some horses names. The Australian Sleepy Tripp hasnt raced for 20 years so why he needs to go by The Sleepy Tripp is stupidity. Then Our Sir Vancelot - there hasnt even been a Sir Vancelot so why he had to change is beyond me.

[nat]

That's sort of my thinking about this, there is a 3yld called EMPYREAN (Bettors Delight from Heavenly Silver) in OZ but its not NZ bred. but then again if the NZ horse changes it name back when returning to NZ and did win what a conundrum for both connections of these horses and the general public over names

[triplev123]

There was another kiwi bred horse back in the mid to late 1980's named Sir Vance. Jim O'Sullivan had him in VIC initially, a very good 2yo (unlucky not to win the Tatlow) & exceptional 3yo he was (won 8 or 9 straight including a Sires Classic). Eventually the horse ended up in QLD as a 10yo+ racing around Tweed Heads in against other similarly clapped out old codgers. Glory days though, when he was a juvenile he was very, very good.

[triplev123]

A quick look at the VIC Derby Heats from a Sires & Damsires perspective.

Sires
Bettor's Delight 9
Art Major & Christian Cullen 4
Life Sign 2
1 each to Falcon Seelster, Dawn Ofa New Day, Artsplace, Big Tom, Blissfull Hall, Grinfromeartoear, So That's Life, Courage Under Fire, Aces N Sevens and Elsu.

Broodmare Sires
Armbro Operative 3
In The Pocket, What's Next, Soky's Atom, Live Or Die, Safely Kept and Troublemaker 2 each.
1 each to Falcon Seelster, Classic Garry, Christian Cullen, Caprock, Equitable, Beach Towel, Pacific Rocket, Fake Left, Village Jasper, No Nukes, Totally Ruthless, Sands A Flyin, Presidential Ball and Windshield Wiper.

[aussiebreno]

9 Bettors Delights :o and no Modern Arts - that suprises me.

[nat]

Muskeg Express my fav cross CC over Seelster mare

[tyson]

Pretty sure i read somewhere that the reason why the kiwis are coming over for the Derby is that there 3yos are up and running, compared to ours. Such as Royal Verdict having his first race start back from a spell.

And Aussiebreno to state that a horse with no gate speed can't win a Vic derby. Go back to Tanabi bromac winning. Front runners goin hard up front and the sweepers coming from the back to WIN. So he still might sprint hard in the finish!!!!!!

[aussiebreno]

Pretty sure i read somewhere that the reason why the kiwis are coming over for the Derby is that there 3yos are up and running, compared to ours. Such as Royal Verdict having his first race start back from a spell.

And Aussiebreno to state that a horse with no gate speed can't win a Vic derby. Go back to Tanabi bromac winning. Front runners goin hard up front and the sweepers coming from the back to WIN. So he still might sprint hard in the finish!!!!!!
I didnt say a horse with no gate speed cant win a Vic Derby. What I said was "He has no gate speed which has him behind the 8ball from the start. I cannot see him winning the Vic Derby." I had a full stop, meaning two different sentences and two different ideas. This is an integral part of the English language I picked up in primary school, something you have failed to grasp. I say this because a) you thinking I said Empirific cant win the Vic Derby because of his lack of gate speed and b) your above sentences where you use Royal Verdict as an example for an Aussie 3yo who isnt up and running yet.
You might want to revisit Tanabi Bromac's Derby. 73.8 lead time, 63.4 first half and last half in 56.7. Compare this to the year before when LPW led and won, lead time in 73.6, 60 neat first half, 57.2 last half 1.59.2MR. Tanabi Bromac was just downright better than his opposition - it had nothing to do with how the race was run.

[triplev123]

I absolutely hand on heart can't make any selections for the VIC Derby Heats or the Final because there are not only a swag of horses engaged that I'm a fan of but there are half a dozen horses that I can make a solid case for to take it all. The overall depth of this year's fields are terrific IMO. Can't wait for the 1st Heat. Cheeky Shiraz firmly in hand, very large Beef Fillet in the Oven. Excellent.:D

[mightymo]

9 Bettors Delights :o and no Modern Arts - that suprises me.

why is that a surprise?

[aussiebreno]

why is that a surprise?
For 3yos he is 6th for prizemoney and 4th for winners this season. Last season he was third for 2yo prizemoney and 2nd for winners.

[buster]

modern art isnt half the sire bettors delight, mach three and cullen are

[aussiebreno]

modern art isnt half the sire bettors delight, mach three and cullen are
Im glad that is the case, his service fee resembles this.

[aussiebreno]

So Empirific showed why he is a 2nd stringer :p - dont take that comment too seriously guys.
Deja vu with the Breeders Crown here I'd reckon - Royal Verdict will be much better than that next week - not that he didnt go good tonight. Good tipping Hutchy with Abettorpunt. Didnt really watch it finish off the race but Jadahson unlucky not to qualify for the final - horses just kept stopping in front of it. I'm tipping Nathan Jack wont be too happy with Chris Alford.

[nat]

Poor Nath he should had gone right and not left as soon as he went for a inside rails run the horse infront hit a wall. It's making Glengowen look like a good bet

[aussiebreno]

Poor Nath he should had gone right and not left as soon as he went for a inside rails run the horse infront hit a wall. It's making Glengowen look like a good bet
Yeah, you could see he was about to peel out wide then the first one dropped off enough so he went back to the pegs. As soon as he did that the other one faded so he probably lost about 5lengths in that time.

[aussiebreno]

Keayang Cullen disapointing. Devilish Smile a good run - surprised me! Gold Ace too good though! From those two heats only four can win the final!

[aussiebreno]

Can't take anything out of that sit-sprint - trackwork for all of the first4!

[buster]

excel stride should have finished closer, couldnt stick on his back over the last 400...hutchy saying he was the best 2 yr old last year??? did he miss royal verdicts season

[triplev123]

N. Jack...the poor bastard...honestly, everywhere there was a door that looked like being open it would immediately close in his face.

[nat]

Horses that impressed

Muskeg Express( Power effort after missing the start most impressive on the night)
Abettorpunt(Great run to the line)
Royal Verdict(Top effort 1st up)
Sushi Sushi(Great all round run slick 26.4 last quarter)
Gold Ace(Slow time but sat outside the leader and just left the rest for dead when asked to go put a gap that made it to hard to close for Devilish Smile)
Devilish Smile (Keeps stepping up every time)

[mango]

Well summed up Nat couldn't of put it any better, i watched most of the Muskeg Express's runs in n.z and sometime's he is his own worst enemy. Once he puts it all together i think he could go on to be a real nice horse and win some big race's. The barrier draw for next week will be important as with the right draw any of them can win.

[nat]

The thing that impressed me most about the Muskeg Express he went around to the death with a 1000m to go, he just needs a draw I feel be in the money next week he looks like a horse that can make his own luck good or bad and not depend on others to get him there.

[buster]

one of the most even derby fields i can remember

**with the best horses in aus and nz in it of course

[triplev123]

Have you ever seen a more talented horse that can find more ways to get himself beaten than The Muskeg Express?
He must drive Kevin Seymour to absolute distraction. Once he puts it all together though, watch out.
A beautifully bred horse too incidentally.

[mango]

Hi Triplev123
Sure is beautifully bred and that would be the reason they paid $150,000 for him at the yearling sale's.

[triplev123]

Fearless is KS, absolutely fearless. Damned fine colt.
His record doesn't speak to just how good he is, it doesn't do him justice.
By rights he should have double+ the $ on his card that he currently has.