APG Heats

[Termite]

How do people see the APG Heats for Colts and Geldings playing out this week. Who are the chances and who has some inside info? I see that Soho Valencia and Fly Like An Eagle drew different heats and Grand Stride would be a show at Menangle also.

[mightymo]

I might be a little biased as his breeder, but if a market was being framed right now, Fly Like An Eagle would be an odds on favourite to win the series. Soho Valencia would be a clear second pick

[Termite]

Interesting insight Mightmo. I saw his win in the Young Guns final and his sprint to leave his rivals flat footed was certainly electrifying. Do you think the travel will have an adverse effect on the horse. I know Mark Purdon travels a lot of horses, but it is rather early in the 2yo season. Do you know how long he has been in oz for?

[mightymo]

Interesting insight Mightmo. I saw his win in the Young Guns final and his sprint to leave his rivals flat footed was certainly electrifying. Do you think the travel will have an adverse effect on the horse. I know Mark Purdon travels a lot of horses, but it is rather early in the 2yo season. Do you know how long he has been in oz for?

Think he has been here about a week. Im hoping it wont worry him. Mark is as good a horseman as there is, so Im sure he will have him right.

[mango]

Hi Mightymo

He should win easy tonight as he is a class above the rest.

[Termite]

The first heat is probably the weakest in Melton. In the second, Soho Valencia will have a mortgage on 1st place. Saw Real Hammer trial a couple of times. Mad as a cut snake but freakish speed. If he steers alright he will get home real good.

[mango]

Hi Mightymo

Fly Like A Eagle and Soho Valencia went good but i liked the runs of Medal Of Honour after missing the start and still winning and Gamechanger went a little rough but when he puts it all together look out. Grouse Party House looks more of a 3 yr old to me and still looks very green.

[aussiebreno]

Melton Heats...
Nothing from heat 1 can win
Im going to say Soho Valencia cannot win, Mr Nickel is only thing that can win final from that race but the other Kiwi is supposedly better so will need draw and things to suit
Fly Like an Eagle would have to be the series favourite imo

Menangle Heats
Medal of Honour missed start so is just a class above the rest, hard to get a guage on him from that run because rest went ordinary but youd have to give him a winning chance in final
Gamechanger would have to be Number 1 challenger to Fly Like An Eagle
Nothing from the third heat can win

Albion Park heats
I dont really know them but am going to go out on a limb and say they cant win

At this stage I have it
1. Fly Like An Eagle
2. Gamechanger
3. Mr Nickel
4. Medal of Honour
5. Soho Valencia

[nat]

Fly Like An Eagle was stunning even though he had an easy go of it when he ran home in the staright he went from plodding to super sonic in a single bound

[buster]

gamechanger was as good as fly like an eagle last night

[mango]

Hi Buster

I agree with that call, he just needs to put it all together and in races like these you can't give an inch.

[sdog]

if gamechanger can go clean they won't get near him!!!!!

[nat]

Will have to go to the tapes only watched the Hondo Grattan & FAR's race at Menangle last night

[mango]

Hey Nat

Common mate how could you miss these races lol.

[nat]

I was at Melton Friday lucky I seen the Hondo Grattan & FAR's race

[Zipper]

Fly Like an Eagle was excellent. Looked to be cruising all the way to the line, definitely the benchmark.

Soho Valencia was only fair, not sure he has the speed to match it with some of the others. Desirable Guy was also good and definitely has improvement in him.

In NSW, Medal of Honour and Type Thing both impressed me in their heat. Probably not in the same league as the Eagle but will make the final interesting. Gamechanger is fast but he will bring himself undone under pressure, will be a very smart 3yo IMO. Not sure he can mature quickly enough to worry the Eagle in this series.

Fly Like an Eagle has a mortgage on the series at this point.

[buster]

Being a bit hard on soho Valencia, ran similar time to fly like an eagle and I bet he wouldn't have done anything since Bathurst, grand stride was also below his best after Bathurst

[nat]

Soho Valencia was in a race Fly Like An Eagle was in a parade IMO he could have gone a few seconds quicker if asked will be an interesting finale

[triplev123]

I heard from a mate yesterday that Gamechanger broke a carrying strap and/or got it tangled in up his go-straights so the 1:54.7 he posted was pretty damned wicked indeed. Missed most of the races 1st time around but when I watched the replay I initially thought he was getting on a knee...and maybe he was?... because it looked like JDP was really nursing him around the 1st & the home turns. I am pretty certain he is a big track colt, looks like he loves Menangle and I can't see him being at all thrilled by tight half milers...but as long as there are no tangle issues this time out...man oh man, BIG motor, seriously BIG.

[mango]

Hey Triple

Did you see his run at Shep.

[Zipper]

Mango, I saw his run at Shepparton... It was arrogant!! It looked like an older horse taking on 2yo's, he just brained them. But he still went rough when he circled the field, looked like he was very close to breaking stride. And the form of the second horse since isn't strong.

Interesting to hear Adam Hamilton on In the Gig this morning say that they have 'officially applied' to work him at Melton prior to the next round of heats. Clearly they are worried about him if they are doing this type of stuff....

[mango]

Hi Zipper

Arrogant at Shep is correct and i do believe if he is managed right and they let him mature they could have a seriously nice horse. But the problem is that all the money is in the 2yr pold events so i can't see them backing off. It's not always the best horse that wins these races but the horse with some ability and race day manners.

[sdog]

Everyone is quick to point out Gamechanger's faults, Fly Like an Eagle was no angel around the home turn on Friday night running off......

[mango]

Hi Sdog

Take a look at all of Fly Like an Eagle's run's and then Gamechanger's and then you will understand what i'm talking about.

[triplev123]

G'day Sdog,

I don't see it as being a fault that Gamechanger is probably a big track horse, not at all.
In fact I see it as a HUGE blessing. Menangle is where the majority of $$$ is going to be.

He's obviously a good sized, physically & mentally strong horse that has a good length of stride and he can carry his top speed deep into the mile.

Perhaps he was being nursed a little here & there on the turns and yet he still went in 54 & change, drawing away under minimal urging inside the final 100m or so. That makes me wonder what sort of miles could he post without the tangled gear & with the addition of a year or two or more's worth of maturity.

Some might scoff the comparison but there's a lot about Gamechanger that reminds me of a young Shark Gesture & he went on to pace in 1:48.1 & earn $2.8million.

[mightymo]

G'day Sdog,

I don't see it as being a fault that Gamechanger is probably a big track horse, not at all.
In fact I see it as a HUGE blessing. Menangle is where the majority of $$$ is going to be.

He's obviously a good sized, physically & mentally strong horse that has a good length of stride and he can carry his top speed deep into the mile.

Perhaps he was being nursed a little here & there on the turns and yet he still went in 54 & change, drawing away under minimal urging inside the final 100m or so. That makes me wonder what sort of miles could he post without the tangled gear & with the addition of a year or two or more's worth of maturity.

Some might scoff the comparison but there's a lot about Gamechanger that reminds me of a young Shark Gesture & he went on to pace in 1:48.1 & earn $2.8million.

lets not get carried away just yet. The horse has won nothing of any note ...yet. He may very well do so, but he is by Pres Ball and history says that not many of them go on past their 3yo days. As for the comparison with Shark Gesture, well thats just plain ridiculous!! :):)

[buster]

Cmon mighty mo your just being bias, they are both horses who will win 200k

Sdog I think it's obvious that we rate purdons horse as well but there is just more to talk about with gamechanger because of galloping

[triplev123]

WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOSH!
Bystander - What in the bloody Hell was that?
Casual Observer - Mightymo blowing by the point of that comparison. :p
Ridiculous you say? Here's me thinking the parallels to be drawn between Gamechanger and Shark Gesture as a youngsters are obvious by way of them both being good sized, strong, big gaited, fast colts that were unquestionably big track horses as a result of all that..and with all that being further underlined by the fact that here & there both brush/brushed a knee a bit on the bends. If you get an opportunity watch 'The Minister Of Speed' driving SG throughout his career compare it to JDP driving Gamechanger at Shepparton and again the other night at Menangle. Hopefully you'll see what I am getting at. Then again, maybe you are just getting old & cranky. :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

[mightymo]

Cmon mighty mo your just being bias, they are both horses who will win 200k

Sdog I think it's obvious that we rate purdons horse as well but there is just more to talk about with gamechanger because of galloping

i dont think Ive been talking up the Eagle at all even thought he has already won almost 100K and beaten the best in NZ going 1.55.9 at Alex Park.

Gamechanger may well be as good, possibly even better, but he hasnt done it yet. Lets watch the APG final and then we can see what he is made of

[triplev123]

Hey Mightymo,

Do you think that the leader will get a middle half in 64.1 in the Final? :p

[buster]

fly like an eagle will win the final and mr nickel will run second

theres my prediction

[Zipper]

All,

I agree with Buster and am tipping Fly Like an Eagle as I feel he is a more mature horse at this stage and has proven himself already. I do think however that this time next year gamechanger will be the horse everyone is talking about. Both horses are good for harness racing regardless....

[triplev123]

You may well be right Buster.
Perhaps Auckland Reactor has just made me a little suspicious of the credentials of Kiwi trained sons of Mach Three that get very soft mid race fractions all alone on a gifted lead.
C'mon now Mightymo, that's gotta get your blood pumping surely. :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

[Termite]

Can anyone shed any light on the beaten brigade from the heats won by the two horses. ie, Did Fly Like An Eagle or Gamechanger beat anyone who has shown a bit thus far?

[triplev123]

G'day Termite,
The APG Heats are seeded so the good ones get spread out/ parachuted into each race. Often, unless they've met previously somewhere else, that makes it very hard to get a clear line on them. I can't speak for the VIC line-up because I haven't watched them that closely at all to date however the horse that finished 2nd to Gamechanger at Menangle the other night is going to be pretty smart. He might not be right up to them at the moment but his time will come. He won quite well first up at Menangle at a weekday meeting but in much slower time (low 58s I think). A good colt though just the same. He is a half brother to Magic Operative.

[Termite]

Thanks Triple,
I didn't realise that the horses were seeded in this series, but now you point that out it certainly makes sense, especially when places in the final are so scarce. I will be interested to see how many interstaters travel to Melton to have a shot at the second round of points.

[triplev123]

G'day Termite,
I have long thought the practice of seeding the noms then spreading out the good ones through the Heats is disgraceful.
If there are, for example, 30 noms for any Heat & Final race that are needing to be broken down to 10 in each Heat...then there should be 3 completely random draws of 10 horses each from that initial Pool of 30...with the chips falling where they may...then barriers should be drawn within those 10 set for each Heat. If that means that 2 or 3 of the hot pots draw into the same Heat and they have to go at it from the jump to make the Final then so be it.
This seeding rotuine it is not only applicable to the APG but also the ABC Heats & so on & there are no doubt many other events that are similarly conducted so few if any are without shame in this regard. The current system of Grandfathering certain horses into the Final by way of ensuring that they face lesser initial opposition in the Heats should be dispensed with immediately. It is an anti-competitive practice IMO.

[Greg Hando]

G'day Termite,
I have long thought the practice of seeding the noms then spreading out the good ones through the Heats is disgraceful.
If there are, for example, 30 noms for any Heat & Final race that are needing to be broken down to 10 in each Heat...then there should be 3 completely random draws of 10 horses each from that initial Pool of 30...with the chips falling where they may...then barriers should be drawn within those 10 set for each Heat. If that means that 2 or 3 of the hot pots draw into the same Heat and they have to go at it from the jump to make the Final then so be it.
This seeding rotuine it is not only applicable to the APG but also the ABC Heats & so on & there are no doubt many other events that are similarly conducted so few if any are without shame in this regard. The current system of Grandfathering certain horses into the Final by way of ensuring that they face lesser initial opposition in the Heats should be dispensed with immediately. It is an anti-competitive practice IMO.

Very well said Triple couldn't agree more i think you will find most races of any class are seeded even in country areas for co heats and finals etc

[buster]

G'day Termite,
I have long thought the practice of seeding the noms then spreading out the good ones through the Heats is disgraceful.
If there are, for example, 30 noms for any Heat & Final race that are needing to be broken down to 10 in each Heat...then there should be 3 completely random draws of 10 horses each from that initial Pool of 30...with the chips falling where they may...then barriers should be drawn within those 10 set for each Heat. If that means that 2 or 3 of the hot pots draw into the same Heat and they have to go at it from the jump to make the Final then so be it.
This seeding rotuine it is not only applicable to the APG but also the ABC Heats & so on & there are no doubt many other events that are similarly conducted so few if any are without shame in this regard. The current system of Grandfathering certain horses into the Final by way of ensuring that they face lesser initial opposition in the Heats should be dispensed with immediately. It is an anti-competitive practice IMO.


if they don't seed them, then i just nominate with m purdon as my driver and they then put you in a different heat to purdons horses

[Termite]

Cunning plan Buster! I hope you use such genius for good and not evil! This whole subject of seeding does present a few inequities. As does the clause allowing owners and trainers to avoid their own horses. I suppose the only fair way is to throw them all in the hat and let them fall as they will. The APG and the industry administrators obviously see the need to facilitate a blockbuster final where possible...

[Flashing Red]

I like seeding because I think that will lead to more even heats. For me, its not about trying to look after the best horses.

[mango]

Hi Triple

I agree with you totally, it should not happen at all.

Hi Buster

A cunning genius i must say i do like your style lol.

[Zipper]

I'd say that will be the end of Medal of Honour's APG campaign, broke in the score up and broke again on the home turn at Dubbo. I would expect it will be stood down for a trial or two. A bit of a shame as he was one of NSW best chances and a good heat winner last week!

[Termite]

The fields for round 2 certainly reflect the relevance of seeding. I think there is a clear pick in each heat. Mark Purdon will have to think a little more than he needed two a fortnight ago with a tricky draw for his champ, however he should be able to win from anywhere on past performances. Valencia is a standout. Gamechanger and I think Medal of Honour, as I believe Western Rockster has lost his early season ascendancy.

[buster]

the 2nd round needs to be seeded otherwise they'd end up with 4 or 5 horse with the same points for the final in the cut off region

[triplev123]

It is a serious wank that on one hand many amongst Australian Harness Racing Industry Administration will wring their hands and tug their forelocks with regard to the number of Odds On shots in racing in general whilst at the same time happily continuing the absurd & non-competitive practice of seeding Futurity & Age Classic Racing Heats...be they APG, ABC, Derby,Oaks & so on...the outcome duly being a series of Odds On shots in as many Heats as there are to be conducted...and solely of their own creation. Their hypocrisy seemingly knows no boundaries. Talk about a rampant case of do as I say and not as I do.

[aussiebreno]

It is a serious wank that on one hand many amongst Australian Harness Racing Industry Administration will wring their hands and tug their forelocks with regard to the number of Odds On shots in racing in general whilst at the same time happily continuing the absurd & non-competitive practice of seeding Futurity & Age Classic Racing Heats...be they APG, ABC, Derby,Oaks & so on...the outcome duly being a series of Odds On shots in as many Heats as there are to be conducted...and solely of their own creation. Their hypocrisy seemingly knows no boundaries. Talk about a rampant case of do as I say and not as I do.
I think in the long run for punting $$$ the seeding works.
Yeah in the heats you might sacrifice say $10K but that will be more than made up for in the final should all the big guns be there.

[buster]

for the most part these races are funded by the breeders/owners, so they should be looked after first - punters are dead for the trots that ship has sailed

[triplev123]

Even Buster can see the folly in it. He writes [for the most part these races are funded by the breeders/owners, so they should be looked after first ]

The fact that there is seeding in the Heats for Futurity events when EVERYONE has had to shell out the SAME amount of $$$ in order to be there is a HUGE slap in the face to all those bar the Owner/s of the seeded hot pot/s. It is an anti-competitive practice that servers to disadvantage some and advantage others and it should cease immediately. That is simply NOT what Futurity Racing is all about.

[aussiebreno]

Even Buster can see the folly in it. He writes [for the most part these races are funded by the breeders/owners, so they should be looked after first ]

The fact that there is seeding in the Heats for Futurity events when EVERYONE has had to shell out the SAME amount of $$$ in order to be there is a HUGE slap in the face to all those bar the Owner/s of the seeded hot pot/s. It is an anti-competitive practice that servers to disadvantage some and advantage others and it should cease immediately. That is simply NOT what Futurity Racing is all about.
It could be argued it makes it fairer overall.
What if Western Rockstar drew in a heat against Fly Like An Eagle; Soho Valencia; Gamechanger; Teniamo whilst Desirable Guy finished first with a trifecta of No Fixed Address and Minti Choice (no disrespect to their 2 connections but from my quick glance they have worst number form)

Thats not fair to inferior horses who drew a semi final like heat whereas another horse finished placings in sub par fields.

[triplev123]

G'day Breno,
Try as a might I can't follow that line of thinking. How can it possibly be said to be fairer overall than a system where you take your chances & let the chips fall where they may...i.e a random drawing of Heats from the overall pool of horses nominated and then a random draw for Barriers in each Heat from there?
If three or four of the topliners happen to draw into the one Heat then that's racing. You take your lumps. The way things are at present, the seeding produces a playing field that is less than level, it serves to further stack the game in favour of those horses already regarded as better/the best.
The Futurity aspects of it particularly bugs the Hell out of me.
Why should anyone who pays up for any futurity event conducted under that sort of a system automatically go in with effectively what amounts to a handicap? Total pool of noms- randomly drawn into Heats then random draw for Barriers. That is fair because that is a system that relies on nothing else but luck/good fortune. Anything else, at least to my way of thinking, is simply not fair.

[aussiebreno]

G'day Breno,
Try as a might I can't follow that line of thinking. How can it possibly be said to be fairer overall than a system where you take your chances & let the chips fall where they may...i.e a random drawing of Heats from the overall pool of horses nominated and then a random draw for Barriers in each Heat from there?
If three or four of the topliners happen to draw into the one Heat then that's racing. You take your lumps. The way things are at present, the seeding produces a playing field that is less than level, it serves to further stack the game in favour of those horses already regarded as better/the best.
The Futurity aspects of it particularly bugs the Hell out of me.
Why should anyone who pays up for any futurity event conducted under that sort of a system automatically go in with effectively what amounts to a handicap? Total pool of noms- randomly drawn into Heats then random draw for Barriers. That is fair because that is a system that relies on nothing else but luck/good fortune. Anything else, at least to my way of thinking, is simply not fair.

Its a bit like tennis grand slams. Its hardly fair for Federer to meet Nadal in Rd 1 while Djokovic meets an unseeded wildcard; then in another game seed 128 takes on seed 256.
What about a match race series at Menangle. It would seem odd in Round 1 for Themightyquinn to meet Smoken Up if in another heat Lady Lexus was coming up against Holy Camp Boy.

I think its a no-win situation as I also see your point. At the end of the day if you are good enough (and well mannered) you should get to the final 9 times out of 10 no matter the system.

Its better than thoroughbreds big races eg Magic Millions, Blue Diamond, Golden Slipper where the lesser likes don't even get the chance to win their way through in heats; they just get balloted out straight away.

[Maorisidol]

Quite right with the tennis analogy Breno.
I look at the seeding scenario this way.
There is always a pretty good idea of the top 10 seeds, who as Breno says will most of the time make the Final. All 40 odd different owners know who they are, but all 40 are still wishing/hoping their horse who may be "seeded" in the bottom 20, may make the final.
So,
If the first heats are randomly released and 3 out of the series top guns fall into 1 heat, how disappointed are the owners of the other 7 horses in that heat? They may finish 5th and not qualify to go further, while other horses of similar ability in the "weak heat" scrape thru and earn more money! Hence, I feel it's more unfair for the midrange horses in a random selection process rather than seeded like tennis.
Also if Federer didn't get to as many finals because he got put out by Raffa in the first or second round the final wouldn't be the blockbuster it could/should be.
This applies to creating a buzz for trots fans by the top 5 seeds dueling in the final. This equates to more attendance to Breeders days and similar carnivals.

[aussiebreno]

The Dizzy Rascal drive by Seijka shows how ordinary a driver she really is. If only I was a pretty blonde who had a stable full of winners to drive every week I could drive 100 wins in a season as well

[aussiebreno]

Credit where credit is due Seijka was able to get on the back of Mr Nickel and gave Medal of Honour every chance despite the result; hard from the draw and back there.