Tips

[brent_L]

Let's try and find some winners hey!
Try to give a small reasoning behind your selection and if possible a price range it should be bet at.
Good Luck all & sundry

[brent_L]

Really like STENT in the trot on Sat night to PLACE. Has a bad draw but I feel he is the best horse in the race. He's an extremely tractable trotter who should be able to overcome whatever circumstances are thrown at him.
Rate him $1.60.....already grabbed $2- but there should be a little more value come race time on betfair.

[aussiebreno]

Don't usually bet Vic country. On back of this thread thought I might take a quick look at next at Maryborough. (Race 8)

Isla has been leading or behind leader and still getting beaten comfortably. Leave it out of exotics.
Top Venue. Won last start and has been winning trials. But those trials slow time is different to raceday. Up until his win his form was very ordinary. Couldn't take $1.70. As a speculative leave out of exotics.

Box the other 7 in a trifecta. $21 for 10%. Bet the other seven the win to collect $100. Will cost about $65 to back them all to collect $100 each current fixed prices..

Total outlay $86.
Find the winner = $100.
Find the trifecta = $300 worst case???

[aussiebreno]

Don't usually bet Vic country. On back of this thread thought I might take a quick look at next at Maryborough. (Race 8)

Isla has been leading or behind leader and still getting beaten comfortably. Leave it out of exotics.
Top Venue. Won last start and has been winning trials. But those trials slow time is different to raceday. Up until his win his form was very ordinary. Couldn't take $1.70. As a speculative leave out of exotics.

Box the other 7 in a trifecta. $21 for 10%. Bet the other seven the win to collect $100. Will cost about $65 to back them all to collect $100 each current fixed prices..

Total outlay $86.
Find the winner = $100.
Find the trifecta = $300 worst case???
Small start but a win is a win. Maybe for those who use betfair to lay I should have just suggested laying Isla and Top Venue, but $14 profit isn't too bad.

[brent_L]

Nice work Brendan. Shame I wasn't online.
I know it was only a C0 but I think the beaten fav needs to go into the blackbook. Wide the trip first up for 4 months in 1.57.7 (and it travelled into the final turn like it has ability). U were spot on about Isla.

I'll be checking back for your Young Cup summation.

[Richard prior]

Hi Brent, Big chance that Stoned I Am and Flying Isa might burn out and Stent might end up getting a nice spot. Not sure if he has a lot of speed out of the mobile but it will be interesting to see where he lobs.

[brent_L]

Hi Brent, Big chance that Stoned I Am and Flying Isa might burn out and Stent might end up getting a nice spot. Not sure if he has a lot of speed out of the mobile but it will be interesting to see where he lobs.
He's got plenty of speed early (and late) Kevin. There's only one scenario I'm worried about regarding the bet and that's 4 pegs. If he's 3 pegs I'm confident the 2 in front (which would likely be the 1 & 2) will take him far enough into the straight for him to show his speed.....if DeFilippi snags back at the start I'm sure he's classy & versatile enough to then figure in the finish and the other scenario is the one u mentioned.....an early speed burn where he pops off into the running line.
I usually don't bet each way but the B365 win price of $8 seems real good value for a bloke whose won gold or silver in 27 of 38 starts. May have to include a small win wager.
Final note: Stents kiwi form is 10-12 lengths superior to that of Flying Isa. It's just a question of how far has Luke improved him?

[aussiebreno]

After a bit of a lucky start I will reinvest the $14 profit.

Goulburn 2nd race.

Written in Red is already the class runner of the field, and I would say he would lead from that draw. From there he will be mighty hard to run down. Luda has put in some very good runs this prep and I reckon Written in Red will get far enough ahead of death horse that Luda gets a run. I'm not sure she can run him down, and probably won't get enough time anyway. I will take a $14 exacta Written In Red to beat Luda.

[brent_L]

Followed u into the 2 @ $2.60........hoping the 5 doesn't zoom across.
GL

[aussiebreno]

Followed u into the 2 @ $2.60........hoping the 5 doesn't zoom across.
GL
Nice! Market really changed late, big swing between Written in Red and Distant Memory.

[brent_L]

Did have a little browse over today's cards but had decided to leave them alone, that is until I saw your post Brendan which helped confirm suspicions the 2 would lead.....a nice unexpected little win.
I'm gonna throw the profits on the one horse today that did interest me a little, IM ON TARGET Goulburn R6 PLACE @ $1.65
Should be loads of early speed allowing him to descend late and run into the money. I wouldn't be surprised if the 1 snuck thru late at odds either. The $1.65 ain't value by any means but is fair IMO and there's every chance it starts marginally longer on betfair.
Cheers and GL to those punting this arvo.

[aussiebreno]

Did have a little browse over today's cards but had decided to leave them alone, that is until I saw your post Brendan which helped confirm suspicions the 2 would lead.....a nice unexpected little win.
I'm gonna throw the profits on the one horse today that did interest me a little, IM ON TARGET Goulburn R6 PLACE @ $1.65
Should be loads of early speed allowing him to descend late and run into the money. I wouldn't be surprised if the 1 snuck thru late at odds either. The $1.65 ain't value by any means but is fair IMO and there's every chance it starts marginally longer on betfair.
Cheers and GL to those punting this arvo.
If only Luda was able to hold leaders back, but you finding the winner still a good result for this thread.
Yes $1.65 Im on Target does seem good. Beaten just 7m behind Beautide and narrowly down to Seel n Print. Has raced in death lately, who knows maybe Bettor Bet Black might even be happy to hand up. Good luck.

[brent_L]

Haha, another collect!!! Late Scr, float breakdown.

[brent_L]

Not much value but these are my plays for tonight.
AVONNOVA Albion Park R5 @ $1.65 Sportsbet
Using this guy to boost the price of my weekend sports multis. I reckon he's currently the states best pacer and will be more than capable of sitting 3 wide over the final lap in winning comfortably. I rate him $1.30.
IM SMOULDERING Melton R6 @ $2.50 Sportsbet
Fact: IT IS BILLY is the best horse in the race but is probably a better stayer than sprinter
Fact: it is nigh on impossible to snag back to last and come round the entire field at Melton going 1.54 when 'normal' race tempo presents
Fact: if the 1 begins as well as it did last week it will be leading.
I'm betting on G Lang's nouse here. Believe there may be a soft lead (3 & 7 capable of preventing this) and reckon he can push the go button at the appropriate stage to beat the 8. I would have preferred to try and Lay the 8 at around $2.40 but alas, I'll be at the footy so I'm punting on Gav.
MAGICAL TELF Melton R7 @ $2.25 Sportsbet
I believe he is clearly the best horse in the race and although there looks to be a distinct lack of pace in the race I rate him $1.70. In this field he is good enough to go against his regular racing pattern and search for a prominent spot. If for some reason there is a bit of pressure on the leader (1), he will simply dive bomb them from back in the field. Dangers: bad luck/drive
***STENT to PLACE Melton R8 for reasons mentioned before. Current top odds $2.30 with Sportingbet. I'm on @ $2- (Sportsbet) & $2.10 with B365 (usually the best option as they match the tote price if it happens to pay more than the fixed price u chose.....provided of course u can keep an account open with them). Have also had a few goes at the win @ $6.50 with Sportsbet.......only because they are offering money back if u run 2nd or 3rd (up to $100).
GL to those punting tonight!

[aussiebreno]

Young

Race 1. Cooba Creek. I was really impressed with his run last week. He worked in quick time to the death, as soon as he got there I actually said to the person next to me that that was the end of Cooba Creek, but he fought on very bravely and nearly won the race. A big run. That was in a C2-C3 race last week, but its a C1-C2 race this week. Not a big drop on paper but have a look at his opposition last week. High view Conall had been winning Menangle Country heats and finals and ran in the Canberra Cup. Mach Cade had been racing in C3-C5 races and same story with Hayden who took on top 3yos last yr. The one and two horse ran a slower time same track and dust then Cooba Creek last week. A few have form around Smokin bopper. Precious M sat outside Smokin Bopper and didnt go down to big a margin. High view Conall was in that race and never seen daylight, if he did he prob wins. Precious M will get a much easier trip this time and that's why I am throwing it in as the other winning chance. $40 wins on both Cooba Creek and Precious M. $20 quinella. Do not take under $2 Precious M and Id even hesitate taking under $3.

Race 4. It's a $16,000 Oaks so obviously there is some decent fillies in the race. But 1.59.4 around Young by Perfectionist is a good run and it looked to have something up the sleeve. The danger is Artista Lombo or Takahoa could take it on early, leaving Freedom Is and Grin and Gold with a big chance to run them down. $100 wins Perfectionist. Don't take under $1.50 but with Freedom Is in the field I can't see that happening.

Race 6 Monifeith. Beaten 5m and 10m Mach Beauty and FAR. If they in this they're both $1.10. Rocketing home in 1.54 over 2400m. He has been racing grand circuit horses, the rest have been racing 'just' FFA horses. $100 wins.

Race 8. Flight to Vegas. Beaten 20m in 1.57.5 over mile at Young. That equates to 1.59 personal time. Add 2 secs for extra distance. 2.01. Similar last start, 1.57.1. Add two secs for distance, add 1 secs as wont be on pegs, will need to cover ground, add 1.2 secs btn margin which gives 2.01.3. Everything else has been getting beaten in slower times. $200 wins.

[aussiebreno]

Young

Race 1. Cooba Creek. I was really impressed with his run last week. He worked in quick time to the death, as soon as he got there I actually said to the person next to me that that was the end of Cooba Creek, but he fought on very bravely and nearly won the race. A big run. That was in a C2-C3 race last week, but its a C1-C2 race this week. Not a big drop on paper but have a look at his opposition last week. High view Conall had been winning Menangle Country heats and finals and ran in the Canberra Cup. Mach Cade had been racing in C3-C5 races and same story with Hayden who took on top 3yos last yr. The one and two horse ran a slower time same track and dust then Cooba Creek last week. A few have form around Smokin bopper. Precious M sat outside Smokin Bopper and didnt go down to big a margin. High view Conall was in that race and never seen daylight, if he did he prob wins. Precious M will get a much easier trip this time and that's why I am throwing it in as the other winning chance. $40 wins on both Cooba Creek and Precious M. $20 quinella. Do not take under $2 Precious M and Id even hesitate taking under $3.

Race 4. It's a $16,000 Oaks so obviously there is some decent fillies in the race. But 1.59.4 around Young by Perfectionist is a good run and it looked to have something up the sleeve. The danger is Artista Lombo or Takahoa could take it on early, leaving Freedom Is and Grin and Gold with a big chance to run them down. $100 wins Perfectionist. Don't take under $1.50 but with Freedom Is in the field I can't see that happening.

Race 6 Monifeith. Beaten 5m and 10m Mach Beauty and FAR. If they in this they're both $1.10. Rocketing home in 1.54 over 2400m. He has been racing grand circuit horses, the rest have been racing 'just' FFA horses. $100 wins.

Race 8. Flight to Vegas. Beaten 20m in 1.57.5 over mile at Young. That equates to 1.59 personal time. Add 2 secs for extra distance. 2.01. Similar last start, 1.57.1. Add two secs for distance, add 1 secs as wont be on pegs, will need to cover ground, add 1.2 secs btn margin which gives 2.01.3. Everything else has been getting beaten in slower times. $200 wins.
Race 1. Precious M gallops out, broken gear. Cooba Creek. I think this horse may be tougher than he is faster. Can't keep up when they really get rolling, but can continue churning out quickish quarters. Regardless, when they run home in 28 and 28.9 at Young he didn't have much hope from back where he was. Not a bad run.

Race 4. Perfectionist won, but I nearly wanted to be on Freedom Is at the $6, didn't think it would start that price. From that draw, and when it got the lead with out so much of a whimper from the front row horses Perfectionist was never going to get beat though. Have a look at Marys Little Rose hang back at the start and let Artista Lombo in behind the leader. Artista Lombo wasn't good enough to win, but that is a disgrace, no QDT in the results section, I await stewards report.

Race 6. Very strange, all three McCarthy horses beaten over 20m. Has that ever happened before? Two Eye See gone a long way from home, something wrong perhaps? Machtavish and Monifeith set enormous tasks three wide last mile around four turns.

Race 8. Flight to Vegas. 2.03.2, had the best imaginable trip, and does absolutely nothing in the straight. I don't understand why, a significant drop on past performances for mine. As per my calcs above. Beaten 20m in 1.57.5, mathematics says add 1.5 secs so 1.59. Tried and true at Wagga and Young is adding 2 secs for the mile to middle distance (just take a look at Perfectionist). Thats 2.01. Hows it get flogged in 2.03 is beyond me, running about 2.04 itself. Granted the 2 second theory can be off, but not by that far. A poor performance from Flight to Vegas.

[aussiebreno]

Not much value but these are my plays for tonight.
AVONNOVA Albion Park R5 @ $1.65 Sportsbet
Using this guy to boost the price of my weekend sports multis. I reckon he's currently the states best pacer and will be more than capable of sitting 3 wide over the final lap in winning comfortably. I rate him $1.30.
IM SMOULDERING Melton R6 @ $2.50 Sportsbet
Fact: IT IS BILLY is the best horse in the race but is probably a better stayer than sprinter
Fact: it is nigh on impossible to snag back to last and come round the entire field at Melton going 1.54 when 'normal' race tempo presents
Fact: if the 1 begins as well as it did last week it will be leading.
I'm betting on G Lang's nouse here. Believe there may be a soft lead (3 & 7 capable of preventing this) and reckon he can push the go button at the appropriate stage to beat the 8. I would have preferred to try and Lay the 8 at around $2.40 but alas, I'll be at the footy so I'm punting on Gav.
MAGICAL TELF Melton R7 @ $2.25 Sportsbet
I believe he is clearly the best horse in the race and although there looks to be a distinct lack of pace in the race I rate him $1.70. In this field he is good enough to go against his regular racing pattern and search for a prominent spot. If for some reason there is a bit of pressure on the leader (1), he will simply dive bomb them from back in the field. Dangers: bad luck/drive
***STENT to PLACE Melton R8 for reasons mentioned before. Current top odds $2.30 with Sportingbet. I'm on @ $2- (Sportsbet) & $2.10 with B365 (usually the best option as they match the tote price if it happens to pay more than the fixed price u chose.....provided of course u can keep an account open with them). Have also had a few goes at the win @ $6.50 with Sportsbet.......only because they are offering money back if u run 2nd or 3rd (up to $100).
GL to those punting tonight!
Stand and applaud, three from four. Good tipping.

[brent_L]

Stand and applaud, three from four. Good tipping.
Thanks Brendan. I was way off it seems with a couple of the prices. Looked up results on Ladbrokes to find Avonnova $2.20 and M Telf $3.40. That aside it was a great night, topped off by being at the ground to watch the Giants hand the Swans their ass.
On a side note, really liked the performance of Keystone Del the other night and reckon he might have the right combination of speed and stamina to give the Great Southern a shake this weekend.
Cheers

[brent_L]

20/3 TOP VENUE Bendigo R4
This is a 'blackbooker' from its last start. After looking thru the form of the race I am hoping to bet at $2-.....will not bet at less than $1.75 however. There could be support for the 5 or 11 which may help raise the price.
TV does have some gate speed but I'm not positive it will be able to cross the 1 (6 also has early speed). He has shown a propensity to still manage to finish off his races after doing a little work early, but that said, I would prefer to see the driver ease at the start and come with one run at the finish.
Should be winning. Cheers.

[aussiebreno]

I agree Top Venue is the one to beat. I was lucky potting him last week.

Only reason I won't back him is I don't know how good the 5 is. They went 33 2nd quarter last week which helped him, I just wonder about its speed and toughness. Is the 28.7 final quarter a reflection that the horse doesn't have the speed to run a low 28 quarter, or is it a reflection the horse was tired. Because if he was tired, well he is no chance in this and I'd take $1.50 about Top Venue. But if it was more a reflection the horse just can't run a low 28 quarter, well he is still in with a hope. If the 11 gets a draw and stays in its gear it will win a race or two somewhere, but from back there it will be tough. One more thing, sometimes after a gutbuster first up a horse can struggle 2nd up.

I hope you can get your $2. I would probably need $3 (can't see that happening) for me to have a bet, but he is still the top pick for mine.

Now I've had a read of that race I'll go trifecta and F4 2,5/1,2,5,8,11/1,2,5,8,11 $48 for 100% tri and $48 for 100% F4.

[aussiebreno]

I agree Top Venue is the one to beat. I was lucky potting him last week.

Only reason I won't back him is I don't know how good the 5 is. They went 33 2nd quarter last week which helped him, I just wonder about its speed and toughness. Is the 28.7 final quarter a reflection that the horse doesn't have the speed to run a low 28 quarter, or is it a reflection the horse was tired. Because if he was tired, well he is no chance in this and I'd take $1.50 about Top Venue. But if it was more a reflection the horse just can't run a low 28 quarter, well he is still in with a hope. If the 11 gets a draw and stays in its gear it will win a race or two somewhere, but from back there it will be tough. One more thing, sometimes after a gutbuster first up a horse can struggle 2nd up.

I hope you can get your $2. I would probably need $3 (can't see that happening) for me to have a bet, but he is still the top pick for mine.

Now I've had a read of that race I'll go trifecta and F4 2,5/1,2,5,8,11/1,2,5,8,11 $48 for 100% tri and $48 for 100% F4.

Got the tri up collect $114 so a small profit, but very nearly could have F4 which paid $2200. Leader just held up the 8 on the turn and into the straight and if that didnt happen Badtothebone runs 4th giving me the F4.

[brent_L]

That tri paid remarkable well, nice work Brendan.
I'll give Top Venue one more chance and hope he draws the back line so the driver has no decisions to make!! 27.9 then 29.2 in the breeze.....u don't see many horses win C0's like that. Anyhow, that's punting!

[aussiebreno]

Rc5 Wagga Mean Courage

[aussiebreno]

$3 fixed

[aussiebreno]

Easy money.

[brent_L]

Congrats Breno. A little more notice if u can next time mate. Please

[brent_L]

My plays tonight,
FRANCO JAMAR Albion Park R4 $3- Sportsbet
L McCarthy once rated this fella in the best few horses in Australasia. I understand that was some 2 years ago, but he showed his capabilities when he had his first public appearance in a trial last prep, running his mile in 1:52.4. No trials this time in and I can't help but think that Cockburn will have him ready to fly tonight, just like that trial. I'm happy to pay to see. I had him around the $2.20 mark
ALEPPO MIDAS Melton R3 $6- Tatts (+ an equal stake 'saver' on STENT $1.90 Sportsbet)
Stent is all class but I see good value in AM with the way I reckon the race might be run. Stent will need to burn early to hold out the 4 & 6 and although there has been apparent talk of leading throughout, I'd imagine his best chances of winning (& running the quickest time to get the best draw for final) would be to take a sit on the free wheeling AM when she comes calling around the 1200m. Rated Stent $2.30 & AM $4-
***FLYING ISA Melton R4 $3.50 B365
Aussie record holder at the mile. Whilst not brilliant out, he should lead early. Whether Luke takes a sit thereafter is the question, as 5 of the 6 drawn to his outside are go forward types including the current fav drawn 3 who didn't relinquish the chair over the longer trip last week. He did fold up the last little bit last week, but to my eye he looked the only danger to Stent coming to the final bend and in this class the mile may be more his go. I had him marked at $2.50.
QUITE A MOMENT Melton R8 $6- Ladcrooks
This is a 4 horse race and I'm keen on last terms Breeders Crown victor who looks drawn to lead. Did show enough speed to lead Shes An Image in the heat and I'm hoping she will be able to do the same tonight.....also reckon the 2 may prevent Lang from finding leaders back. Aikens pair, whilst dynamic, are mistake prone and terribly drawn. I've also thrown a few bucks on the 2 to run a drum at cricket score odds. I rated QAM a $3.50 winning chance.
GO AHEAD MAKEMYDAY Melton R10 $21- Tatts (+ an equal stake 'saver'on MYJ $2.10 Tatts)
MYJ has the runs on the board in the Monte miles and IMO will start as short as $1.65. Taken a punt on GAM as it does have a few pluses on its side and is at nice odds. + trained by C Lang + former 'group' performer (arguably the best performed horse in the race) + won a monte trial recently. It will have to go roughly 10 lengths faster tonight than it did in its trial however. Rate GAM $10 & MYJ $1.65
GL to those punting tonight.

[brent_L]

Bad night on the punt last night with the 2 'savers' saving me from spending the remainder of the weekend in the foetal position. Night made worse when Del charged down the middle of the track to take out the GSS. I really liked him for the series after his performance last week but went cold on him after the draws were out for the heats......idiot!
Some nice performances on the night with Claudys Princess & Brunelleschi both taking my eye.
I hope others fared better. Cheers

[aussiebreno]

Did anything catch your eye in race one at Kilmore tonight Brent?

[brent_L]

He (more so the driver than the horse) gets one more chance tonight Brendan. I haven't had a chance to do the form of the race so I'll probably just take him to place. If by some chance I get more than $2- I will have a small win bet. Cheers

[aussiebreno]

He (more so the driver than the horse) gets one more chance tonight Brendan. I haven't had a chance to do the form of the race so I'll probably just take him to place. If by some chance I get more than $2- I will have a small win bet. Cheers
Another torrid run and another placing!

[brent_L]

Another torrid run and another placing!
Good odds the place I thought...$2.90 and u could have fished for around the $3.35 mark on Betfair. I'll put my hand up for a 'whinge&win' there Breno. Thought a collect was forlorn (and wasn't i bitching) after the first lap & again approaching the turn. Horse is putting in some top rate performances and whilst he looks a bit of a handful to drive I have to question the tactics adopted in its last 2 races.

[brent_L]

Tonights plays (all shorties unfortunately)
MISTER GUNSEN Melton R2 $2- Sportsbet
Trotter in great form, will be leading with the 1 on his back. Only needs a slight mid race breather to be a 'moral'. Only danger IMO is the 9. Rated him $1.50.
MASTER LAVROS Addington R10 $2.30 NZTab
Has tonnes of ability and is as tough as the day is long. He does tend to make a fair few mistakes but if he trots clean tonight he should be running to the front and improving his position. Rated him $1.70.
KEAYANG CULLEN Melton R8 $2.10 Sportsbet
Really looking forward to watching this race. He is a furlong better than these and I don't think the draw is as bad as it looks. Reckon the 4 will fly out and KC will try and follow thru. Only danger I can see is the 9 horse and that's only if the 1 leads which I doubt it will. Rated @ $2- and think there will be value on Betfair at around the 6/4 mark.
Profits to go on G Halls two good 3yo's as a quinella in R7 at Gloucester Park later tonight. Expect/hoping for a mid dividend of $1.40.

Cheers & GL if u r punting tonight.

[aussiebreno]

Wagga
Race4. An R0 and it shows. Hillier horses usually win a couple and Marilyn Miss ran a decent race behind Champion Miss a couple back. From this draw might be able to work forward to a decent spot and be too hard to run down. Lettuce horse was woeful last run, but has at least won a race before. At its best if it can lead it would win. Take a trifecta with those two to win, throw in 4,6,8 for the placings. No idea what market will look like but if they overreact on the Lettuce horse (I mean surely last start was too bad to be true) if you can get $20plus maybe worth a win ticket. Would not take anything under $4 on the Hillier horse, but I reckon could start odds on. Just take the trifecta $72 for 300% and same numbers F4 $24 for 50%.

Race5
I've sworn off her before and drawn in one Amanda Von lack of gate speed is a concern. That said, one on one she is miles better than this lot. Amanda Von is slow out but there is no real noted leaders. Lettuce dance may come across, but first up they might be looking to give an easy run. If you can get $4 Amanda Von worth a win ticket. Not sure we get that price though.

Race6. Eagles Ace. Drawn to lead and is a decent 3yo. Trevor White usually happy to drive quiet and Billybobkhan won't be wanting to lead. Should get to pegs before Tan Son Nhut comes over. Reckon with those two up front 5 and 6 will have to go back. our Santa Catalina smart filly but from draw will be hard, would have just about tipped her if she could lead. Meagrs goes okay but was a bit disappointing last start, but admittedly first up for 12 months so should take improvement. But reckon they end up leaders back and happy to risk. Hopefully we get $3plus about Eagles Ace, with the other three nice horses in the race we might be a good chance at that. Bet of day. $200 wins. Tri 2/1,4,6 $30 tri for 500% and $30F4 500%.

Race7.
1, 4,5 been going plainly. 6 barely won a weak R0. Back line go good especially 9 and 10 but over such a short distance it will be hard from there. Bank of Nova only won one race recently and that was with Buterfield as trainer. Change of stables to Hillier, claime and draw will help. But I don't think it can win, just provide nuisance value to got the Chocies. At worst I reckon Got the Chocies ends up death seating. Hasn't been getting beaten far in quick times after a lengthy lay off. Fitness will be on his side now and will go forward and be mighty hard to beat. A look around at tips and others markets have him about $6. I'd be happy with $2.50/$3 personally. Get on. $200 wins.

Race8. It can Happen should be winning. Will be unbackable odds. Harry's Champ has gate speed and drawn pole will be able to use it, over a mile as well so he will have a great run. The two has gate speed as well but first up new stable unsure what they will do. They might hammer out and ruins each other chances I don't know. But if you can get $3plus place about Harry's Champ put $50 place on him, $10 wins just to be safe as well.

[aussiebreno]

Quaddie Amanda Von, Eagles Ace, Got the Chocies and Itcan Happen.

Could all be over 100m of first race if Amanda Von ends up 3 or 4 pegs lol!

[brent_L]

Good luck Breno. I've taken the Quaddie tip and added 1 to each leg. 4,6,9 & 1

[aussiebreno]

Recap.
Rc4. Normsgottamajor surprised me with how well she went. An improved performance. Lost ground in a 30.5 final quarter at Young in a 2.4.8 mile rate but was able to finish very strongly today in a similar final quarter but way faster mile rate. Knocked me out otherwise I had it. Close but not cigar.

Rc5. Never got the $4 but I still had a small investment. Lost and got beat fair way so not sure she would have won anyway (although she has beaten the winner previously), but why Ray White would want to burn across and proceed to run those times on Fascinator I will never know.

Rc6. Winner. I got $4.20 fixed as soon as they opened. Good drive leading and stacking them up. I got the tri as well, it paid $31. A head off getting the F4 as well. That would have been really nice but can't complain with what I got.

Rc7. Nearly. Good drive and good run, but shame death horse couldn't stick on and get in the winners road. Best horse won though.

Rc8. Two years ago T White would have restrained to three pegs. A changed driver and it won him the race, gave them all a lesson. The opposite can be said for Itcan Happen. Maybe it was the pre conceived tactics from trainer or something but why you would stay back when they run a 65 half over the mile I will never know. But it never ran on anything much either, not the same horse it was 6months ago. But all that doesn't matter $4.40 place for Harrys Champ from an on course bookie would you believe. I didn't either so after I got over the shock I went and plunged it into $3. It was a beautiful end to a cold but profitable day!

[aussiebreno]

Wagga tonight 2nd last race number 1 Starzz on Parade. A 28 start maiden but two placings recently in similar fields. Draws pole here, has shown gate speed before and nothing outside him screams leader. Druitt will go forward. I would prefer the mile rather than 2100m but what can you do. First starter from a good family and probably goes ok but drawn there might not get a crack. Load up on the pole hopefully not too short.

[Greg Hando]

Yep they loaded up and but forgot to put the petrol in.

[doncht]

Any fresh tips out there yet? I'm looking to unload a few. https://imagicon.info/cat/10-3/smile4.png

[brent_L]

Breno, prior to R4 at Kilmore tonight I was explaining to the missus my previous mishaps with one Top Venue (and his driver). She then got a live view of what I had been going on about!!

[aussiebreno]

Breno, prior to R4 at Kilmore tonight I was explaining to the missus my previous mishaps with one Top Venue (and his driver). She then got a live view of what I had been going on about!!
You won't have to worry for the next two weeks, he has been given a holiday!

[aussiebreno]

Race 6 at Menangle.

Modern Max a C2 taking on C1s. That's not a great deal, given the whole field will eventually be a lot better than C1s. But 11 months ago ran narrow 2nd to Chilli Palmer and form around Pachacuti and Blissful Guy. Blissful Guy nearly won couple C3-C5 on the Sat nights. Pachacuti while disappointing not far off Poacher and top 4yos early in season at Syd. Modern Max first up for 8months I got a good deal about $6 went good then very narrowly beaten Pas Ultimate Delight and race was not run to suit one bit. That was $25K C1-C2. This is $7K C1. 3rd up after long spell now with Fitzpatrick should be on the up. Was hoping for better price (Opened $2.80 fixed) but get on!

[aussiebreno]

Tweasy

[aussiebreno]

Maryborough Race 7.

We will once again go for the horse down in grade and 3rd up from a spell. Probably won't get as good a run but Hall of Famer. An M2 racing C4-C5 horses.

Rob Auber picks the 9 and 11, but to be honest I would much rather the front row horses to beat Hall of Famer. Lachlan McIntosh selects 9 and 11 in his first four as well. The AAP prices have the 9 and 11 more reasonable prices but should they start shorter than you might find some EW value around the 1 and 2 as well.

Suggested bet: The 7 Hall of Famer to win.
If prices permit small interest tris around numbers like 7/1,2/1,2 - 1,2,7box, 7/1,2,3,4,5,6/1,2,3,4,5,6 - 1,2/1,2,3,4,5,6,7

[aussiebreno]

To easy

[aussiebreno]

Surely Horizon Guy just wins tomorrow at Wagga?

[aussiebreno]

It wasn't as easy I thought and there's a nervous punter here but a winning one nevertheless.

[aussiebreno]

Young

Race 1. Cooba Creek. I was really impressed with his run last week. He worked in quick time to the death, as soon as he got there I actually said to the person next to me that that was the end of Cooba Creek, but he fought on very bravely and nearly won the race. A big run. That was in a C2-C3 race last week, but its a C1-C2 race this week. Not a big drop on paper but have a look at his opposition last week. High view Conall had been winning Menangle Country heats and finals and ran in the Canberra Cup. Mach Cade had been racing in C3-C5 races and same story with Hayden who took on top 3yos last yr. The one and two horse ran a slower time same track and dust then Cooba Creek last week. A few have form around Smokin bopper. Precious M sat outside Smokin Bopper and didnt go down to big a margin. High view Conall was in that race and never seen daylight, if he did he prob wins. Precious M will get a much easier trip this time and that's why I am throwing it in as the other winning chance. $40 wins on both Cooba Creek and Precious M. $20 quinella. Do not take under $2 Precious M and Id even hesitate taking under $3.

Race 4. It's a $16,000 Oaks so obviously there is some decent fillies in the race. But 1.59.4 around Young by Perfectionist is a good run and it looked to have something up the sleeve. The danger is Artista Lombo or Takahoa could take it on early, leaving Freedom Is and Grin and Gold with a big chance to run them down. $100 wins Perfectionist. Don't take under $1.50 but with Freedom Is in the field I can't see that happening.

Race 6 Monifeith. Beaten 5m and 10m Mach Beauty and FAR. If they in this they're both $1.10. Rocketing home in 1.54 over 2400m. He has been racing grand circuit horses, the rest have been racing 'just' FFA horses. $100 wins.

Race 8. Flight to Vegas. Beaten 20m in 1.57.5 over mile at Young. That equates to 1.59 personal time. Add 2 secs for extra distance. 2.01. Similar last start, 1.57.1. Add two secs for distance, add 1 secs as wont be on pegs, will need to cover ground, add 1.2 secs btn margin which gives 2.01.3. Everything else has been getting beaten in slower times. $200 wins.

Here I am tipping Cooba Creek after a fantastic run behind Highview Conall. Cooba Creek gone on to do nothing (lacks speed, but still) while Highview Conall starting in a Kilmore Cup! A lot changes in 7 months!

[doncht]

Looks like a good one. Looking forward to that then. https://imagicon.info/cat/10-3/smile4.png

[aussiebreno]

Wagga Race 7.

Major Jules should be winning and $2.10 fixed is very generous.

I don't mind Paul Land from that draw. Drops back to the C4 after 10 starts not winning, last time drew good ran 2nd in 1.54.7 at Cobram. Maybe a saver on him. And a little go the place.

[aussiebreno]

Wagga Race 7.

Major Jules should be winning and $2.10 fixed is very generous.

I don't mind Paul Land from that draw. Drops back to the C4 after 10 starts not winning, last time drew good ran 2nd in 1.54.7 at Cobram. Maybe a saver on him. And a little go the place.

bzzz.

[Richard prior]

Oops wrong thread

[aussiebreno]

While I will have a better look at the form over the weekend, I am prone to forgetting to post and/or posting late. Sunday may not be a great day for me to post so here goes.

Griffith.

Final two races.

Team Snudden.

Barriettas Bliss and Modern Era.

Barriettas Bliss should be leading. Not 100% sure of the gate speed inside it but don't think it is an issue. Business In Motion could be a better horse than Barrietas Bliss but it's going to be tough drawn outside it. http://www.way2bet.com.au/form-guide/race/302814/GRIFFITH
That has Bliss @ $3.50 and Business In Motion @ $2.00. I have it the other way around to be honest, with a bigger swing. If Bliss is over $2 get on, with a small saver on BIM.

http://www.way2bet.com.au/form-guide/race/302815/GRIFFITH
Modern Era too short for mine in this market but not sure it will start those odds. Horizon Guy not the quickest out, it would be suss if it led. Danielles Pride is the issue here. Can beat Modern Era especially if it was to cross. Was driven aggressive last start and may want the lead. It could bring them both unstuck but all things being equal I think drawn the pole Modern Era leads and wins. I wouldn't be doing an all up Bliss into Modern Era but ME was to start $2.50 or more maybe reinvest a bit with a saver on Danielles Pride.



Menangle tomorrow night.
Haven't read form but it's an absolute crack M1-M2 field so I would expect some pretty decent odds, Elusive Chick absolutely flew home. Took ground off them in a 26.6 first quarter when first up a fortnight ago.

I notice Harvey Kaplan has replaced Baby Bling with Young American in his owned horses on the forum display. Could be worth a ticket.

[mightymo]

very perceptive Brendan. Baby Bling has been retired so I thought I should elevate something else that is currently racing!

[aussiebreno]

Not that happy with the price about Elusive Chick. Rather back Vansumic given their odds.

[aussiebreno]

Taken a couple months but I'm ready to dish out a few more tips.

Wagga tonight

Race 1. I thought Mark Attack at $4.40 was a good bet. Showed good gate speed at Albury 4 starts back before drawing bad after that. Reward for Effort and Coola Bar Boy both currently $3.70 fixed with Bet365...I think that's below the odds for both of them.
Race 2. I thought the front line was pretty even. I like Stormy Lecture but he has no gate speed. Kenze should get crossed and I reckon Glen Alpine Drive should be handing up to Dilingers Princess (and not just because they stablemates). T White been driving them agressive lately and Shes a Jackson should push forward. Perhaps find lead but Mark Attack will probably come around and give cover. Not sure what they do with Dani Pride drawn there but hard to see much getting in the way out 3 wide and at $12/$3 I like Shes A Jackson.
Race 3. I did really like Northern Line, but given he is only $1.90 and previously disqualified trainer D Kennedy has a runner first up I will watch on. Jack Hall would be worth including in exotics or as a place bet but same problem.
Race 4. Modern Dancer does go well and well and truly deserves to be favourite but if it can find the front Kings Law may take some running down over the mile. Most of the form in this race is behind Business In Motion and Kings Law put in the best run behind him. Still over $2.20 the place as well.
Race 5 Goulburn Guy at $2 is a good bet imo. He went 1.58.6 here a couple months ago and won impressively. The other one maybe a saver win bet but include in exotics is Street Meets. Can see them going real hard early (a few might want the lead) and he loves it being a staying affair.
Race 6. Been very disapointed with him this prep and probably deserves this price to be honest. Would rather see T Prest on him, drawn bad again but will probably win when I'm not on him so better have a little EW Quads on the River.
Race 7. Not many if any 3yo fillies have run 2.00 around Temora and been beaten. Brigit Bufai gets another chance to lead and while Miss Nickels goes good the draw may be too much to overcome. $2.60 good price imo. Weliveinhope at $3.50 way way too short. Had it on par with Lorna Ella who is $18. They equal 3rd picks.
Race 8. I'll give Equity Chip another go. Went from running up backsides last 3 to finding clear running room but galloping last start. Keeps me coming back like a mug lol!
Race 9. The 3yo fillies could just about trifecta this. I think Whos Wispering at $1.80 is a good bet. Official Jasper is $2.80 and taking up valuable market % but you must remember while she's looked good winning she's been leading.
Race 10. Absolute pus race! Did Didn't think Scoobydon't was too much worse than the rest of them at $41. Follow the 3yo theory from race 9 and throw in Lequippe Linden.

[aussiebreno]

Rc1 $100 Wins Mark Attack
Rc2 $50EW Shes a Jackson
Rc3 $20 Wins Northern Line. $10P Jack Hall. Tris: 2/10/f 2/f/10 2/9/10 2/10/9 2-9/2-9/10 $4 each
Rc4 $25EW Kings Law
Rc5 Tri 10/8/5-6-7 $13 Tri 10/5-6-7/8 $7 $10W $20P Street Meets $50wins Goulburn Guy
Rc6 $5EW Quads on the River
Rc7 $100 Wins Brigit Bufai
Rc8 $10EW Equity Chips
Rc9 $100 wins Whos Whispering
Rc10 $5 EW Scooby $10W Leqippe Linden

$650 spend for the night.

Good luck

[aussiebreno]

Rc1 $100 Wins Mark Attack
Rc2 $50EW Shes a Jackson
Rc3 $20 Wins Northern Line. $10P Jack Hall. Tris: 2/10/f 2/f/10 2/9/10 2/10/9 2-9/2-9/10 $4 each
Rc4 $25EW Kings Law
Rc5 Tri 10/8/5-6-7 $13 Tri 10/5-6-7/8 $7 $10W $20P Street Meets $50wins Goulburn Guy
Rc6 $5EW Quads on the River
Rc7 $100 Wins Brigit Bufai
Rc8 $10EW Equity Chips
Rc9 $100 wins Whos Whispering
Rc10 $5 EW Scooby $10W Leqippe Linden

$650 spend for the night.

Good luck

Rc1. If it was a school test you'd be happy you backed the $2.50 fav at $4.40 and went against the $5.50 elect who was quoted at $3.70. That doesn't pay the bills though and after Mark Attack couldn't find the lead it wasn't the good thing I thought it was. Coola Bar Boy too good.
Rc2. C Bell rightfully kept the lead and was too good on Dilingers Princess. Not a bad result at those odds but. $150 return.
Rc3. Mediation galloped at the start and the fears were allayed. 2/10/f tri paid nice and Jack Hall @ $4.33 place was a steal $43 collect $36 collect $132 collect
Rc4. Why you want to run a 29.6 2nd quarter I don't know. 4th just ran out of legs in the straight.
Rc5. Hmmm.
Rc6. You can't be 40/1 and miss the start 30m.
Rc7. Even though Brigit Buafai won it went pretty ordinary. Worth mentioned Lorna Ella beat Weliveinhope by 0.10 cm! $260 collect
Rc8. 5th btn 20m and I have finally sacked. Good result its finally got the flick!
Rc9. Very very disapointing. If that's the best Snudden can get Whos Whispering to go I would be very very suprised. Not the same form it's showed previously.
Rc10. Got what I deserved

$521 collect for a $129 loss. 20%...can't even blame TAB takeout because I was betting into relative good markets. I'll just blame Whos Whispering. Seriously $1.90 shot leads runs 44.3 lead time and 34 1st quarter. Find me another who's got beat at Wagga? Lost 50m on its last run.

[aussiebreno]

Fillies Tatlow at Melton Ladbrokes have put up $16 Fixed Larajay Macray. If it wasn't for the best 3 fillies in Vic her form would have read 1121 before last weeks Vicbred final. Still some vry nice fillies in this but drawn in 1 she should get a good run, an EW ticket will still almost double your money if she runs a place.

[Messenger]

She has gone from $12 to $9 on Unibet and TAB fixed is the same.
I am not sure what the story was with Tiger Storm when these 2 last met (Lara beat her by over 50m) but she was bolting when finishing 5th as fav in a much weaker race than that at her last start

[aussiebreno]

Check out Tiger Storms first start. Based on that she has the potential to join Soho Nolita, Two Times Bettor and Kualoa as the premier 2yo fillies in the state.
Also check out the Vicbred 2yo fillies final score up. About 50m before release some animal darts across the track. Didn't notice it until about the 5th time watching the replay.

[Messenger]

Yep LOL it looked like a little bunny

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX070718#MXM07071811

[Richard prior]

Tiger Storm is one to watch for sure Breno