Just a gripe about the randomness of RBD!

It nearly is enough to make you pull your hair out! That is the only option I have as I turned grey many years ago :)

Here is the bare facts. We have had two horse race in the last 12 months. The first had three starts only before physical problems prevented him from starting again.

In his three starts his barrier draws were as follows;
Drew 10, started SR4
10/SR2
8/SR1

Our next horse has fared even worse!
Drew 3, started FR3
9/SR3
9/SR2
6/FR5
5/FR5
6/FR6
6/FR6
2/FR2
6/FR4

And in his next planned start this Sat, drew 10 should start SR3.

Amongst those starts were one where the draw was PD$L6 and one that was PD/SEX but I couldn't recall exactly which two. But if my memory is any good at all, he drew 5 in the PD/SEX and 6 in the other.

That leaves 11 starts where we could have drawn any barrier and my thoughts are that we should be a 40% chance of drawing barriers 1-4.

So are we due for a spate of good draws? I certainly hope so because it is getting to the point of frustrating to say the least.

Quote:

Originally Posted by strong persuader

It nearly is enough to make you pull your hair out! That is the only option I have as I turned grey many years ago :)

Here is the bare facts. We have had two horse race in the last 12 months. The first had three starts only before physical problems prevented him from starting again.

In his three starts his barrier draws were as follows;
Drew 10, started SR4
10/SR2
8/SR1

Our next horse has fared even worse!
Drew 3, started FR3
9/SR3
9/SR2
6/FR5
5/FR5
6/FR6
6/FR6
2/FR2
6/FR4

And in his next planned start this Sat, drew 10 should start SR3.

Amongst those starts were one where the draw was PD$L6 and one that was PD/SEX but I couldn't recall exactly which two. But if my memory is any good at all, he drew 5 in the PD/SEX and 6 in the other.

That leaves 11 starts where we could have drawn any barrier and my thoughts are that we should be a 40% chance of drawing barriers 1-4.

So are we due for a spate of good draws? I certainly hope so because it is getting to the point of frustrating to say the least.

She's a roulette ball mate, always against you!

I've always wondered how these draws are done. Is it always done the old fashion way like lotto balls? Or do they have a computer program that does it all at the hit of a button?

If its the program, I'm wondering how often they recalibrate the software?

Quote:

Originally Posted by little fish

I've always wondered how these draws are done. Is it always done the old fashion way like lotto balls? Or do they have a computer program that does it all at the hit of a button?

If its the program, I'm wondering how often they recalibrate the software?

We are told the computer does the draw with a single click of the button.
Like any random draw, there must be a starting list of runners entered into the system, how do they enter the stating list, is it by;
a) alphabetical.....by horses name
b) alphabetical.....by trainers name
c) point score

You would think if you started at the number 1 spot before the draw, the chances of getting the number 1 spot after the random draw is remote.
Maybe the naming of your horse could be more important than we think.
Anyone know how it works?

A few years ago we had a good racemare that repeatedly drew the outside of the front line at HP.
It happened so often that I was going to get her name engraved on a shiney brass plaque & have bolted to slot (6) on the starting gate.

Something else... interesting & specifically re: Menangle.
The barrier stats. there suggest that fillies/mares drawing the inside in PDSEX races is of little or no help to them.
Overall, more winners come from 4-7/8 than they do out of 1-2-3. PDSEX looks good as a race condition (although I'm not sure that Dave uses it that much out there these days anyway? have to check) & no doubt Owners & Trainers still think it's a lift for them to draw inside against the boys...so in that respect it's also a feel good, but overall, statistically...from what I can determine, it doesn't stand up. If the intention is to give fillies & mares a crack....at any track, regardless...then simply afford them the chance to race fields of fillies & mares ONLY.

Quote:

Originally Posted by p plater

We are told the computer does the draw with a single click of the button.
Like any random draw, there must be a starting list of runners entered into the system, how do they enter the stating list, is it by;
a) alphabetical.....by horses name
b) alphabetical.....by trainers name
c) point score

You would think if you started at the number 1 spot before the draw, the chances of getting the number 1 spot after the random draw is remote.
Maybe the naming of your horse could be more important than we think.
Anyone know how it works?

I've heard it's so ridiculous that a horses breeding comes into play also. I mean look at Four Starzz Shark and Aces And Sevens. The always draw 4 & 1 or 7 respectively. Crazy random system needs an overhaul!!!

Just looking at race 3 at Menangle on Saturday night a RBD.

Appears to be a pattern in decending alphabetical order. Runners first letter of their name run in order.

G
M
N
W
then
H
I
V
then
C
H
W

Just strange they run in blocks straight down the alphabet

Quote:

Originally Posted by Triple V

Something else... interesting & specifically re: Menangle.
The barrier stats. there suggest that fillies/mares drawing the inside in PDSEX races is of little or no help to them.
Overall, more winners come from 4-7/8 than they do out of 1-2-3. PDSEX looks good as a race condition (although I'm not sure that Dave uses it that much out there these days anyway? have to check) & no doubt Owners & Trainers still think it's a lift for them to draw inside against the boys...so in that respect it's also a feel good, but overall, statistically...from what I can determine, it doesn't stand up. If the intention is to give fillies & mares a crack....at any track, regardless...then simply afford them the chance to race fields of fillies & mares ONLY.

Agree with your sentiments about mares racing mares Jamie, but the barrier draw stats are already foggy if you don't take into account the majority of races are preferential barrier draw and hence the horses drawing the inside are, on paper, the weaker horses in the race, the outside horses are, on paper, the stronger types.

Newcastle has been racing off ten across the front starts for over twenty years and statistically the best draws are 5,6 and 7 for the same reasons. Sure some horses find it difficult to muster speed from the one hole at Newcastle, but for most it is an advantage and at Menangle where you have such a long run to the first corner, I believe, even more so.

Cheers,
Dan

Quote:

Originally Posted by p plater

Just looking at race 3 at Menangle on Saturday night a RBD.

Appears to be a pattern in decending alphabetical order. Runners first letter of their name run in order.

G
M
N
W
then
H
I
V
then
C
H
W

Just strange they run in blocks straight down the alphabet

On the alphabetical thing. Anyone watch the french trots they show on Sky from time to time? If so check out the race fields. Son picked up other week (when he should have been in bed!!) that fields are determined alphabeticaly. One race had names starting N O P. Next race all Q. Next race R S T. Same again this week. Looked round on net but can't find anything.