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Today I noticed that the favourites in the Trotters races do not offer much value - except that they have a pretty good success rate.
I did not want to spend too much time on checking this observation so I only researched the Vic trots races this month
So far we have had 28 trots races in May
The longest price favourites have been $3.40 and $3.20
There have been 13 Odds On faves, so this gait may need some careful consideration by HRV in their efforts to reduce Odds On pops
17 out of 28 faves have won
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I have been noticing how short Emma Stewart's go around so to substantiate it I thought I would list their starting odds here.
I am only going to do it for her home state Vic and whenever she has 2 or more runners in a race, I will only be listing the shortest one.
To keep everything in one place, I will come back and edit this post each day she has runners - I will use a new line for each day.
June 1: $1.10, $1.30, $1.10 - 2/3 wins
June 3: $3.10, $11.20, $2.30 2/3 wins (Metro)
June 4: $2.90, $1.60, $1.90, $1.40, $2.30 3/5 wins
June 7: $2.40, $1.20 1/2 wins
June 9: $1.04, $1.70, $3.60, $1.70, $2.40 3.5/5 wins
June 10: $4.30, $3.50, $3.60, $5.00, $2.40 3/5 wins (Metro) [1 winner was not her shortest runner]
June 11: $1.60, $5.70, $1.80, $13.00, $1.50, $4.10, $8.60 2/7 wins
June 15: $2.90, $1.30, $3.30, $1.20 2/4 wins
June 16: $8.80, $8.90, $3.20 0/3 wins
June 17: $4.60, $1.80, $1.10, $1.90, $1.90, $9.00, $1.40 3/7 wins
June 18: $2.00, $1.40, $1.10 3/3 wins (Metro)
June 24: $16.30, $1.50, $1.50, $26.80, $86.50, $2.90, $4.60, $3.10, $3.90, $1.40, $2.60, $14.00 5/12 wins (Metro)
July 2: $3.90, $5.30, $2.00, $1.80, $1.50, 3/5 (Metro Gp1s)
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So the Stewart stable summary for week 1 is :
8 wins from 13 races
7 odds on faves
Longest price runner $11.20 (stable pet Jadahson)
2nd longest $2.90
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So the Stewart stats update at the half month point is:
18.5 wins from 34 races contested
15 odds on faves (not all of these were winners)
There have now been 2 of her runners start over $10
Her number of odds on faves dropped considerably in the second week
At the end of the month we will calculate the average starting price of her preferred runner
(I say 'preferred' runner as we are only taking stats on her shortest starter when she has more than one in a race)
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I will conclude my Stewart Stable stats after last night which I included as she had no other runners for the last week of June
Her stats for a month were:
34½ wins from 64 races (16 Metro wins!)
27 odds on faves (42% of the races, I would not be surprised if this was below her average as we had some classy metro races this month)
(details see Post 134 which I updated after each meet)
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It will be interesting to see how much difference Tiered Racing makes in the new season
Tonight at Ballarat 8/9 races Odds On favs
http://www.harness.org.au/meeting-re...A260716&ms=vic
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Can anyone tell me if the starting prices are correct for the 6th at Bankstown yesterday??? 8 starters, 4 of which are odds on and the longest priced starter under $8???
Results - Race 6 BANKSTOWN 1 August 2016 http://www.harness.org.au/images/Camera.png http://www.harness.org.au/images/video-trotstv-2.gif
CANTERBURY BANKSTOWN CITY COUNCIL CUP 25TH OF AUGUST PACE Race code: BKC01081605 Stakes: $3,500 Gait: PACERS Class: R2 To R3. 1,740 METRES MOBILE STARTPl HorsePrize-
money Row &
BrTAB
# Trainer Driver
( C = Concession )Mgn
(m)Starting
oddsStewards'
Comments
1WARNER http://www.harness.org.au/images/bb_icon.gif Fr11W P DimechJ E Trainor (C,cl)$ 1.30 fav GS L SWAB BAY GELDING 6 by ART MAJOR USA out of JADES DREAM
Owner(s): W P (Wayne) Dimech
Breeder(s): J H (Jeremy) Trevor-Jones 2MORTENSON http://www.harness.org.au/images/bb_icon.gif Sr28H A JamesH A James 3.40 $ 1.90 PRBT 3RODNEY STRIDES http://www.harness.org.au/images/bb_icon.gif Fr22K J HayesC Geary (C,cl) 10.50 $ 1.30 fav 4THOMAS DYLAN http://www.harness.org.au/images/bb_icon.gif Fr33P J HansonT P McCarthy 12.00 $ 1.80 PRBT GS 5UNDERDOG http://www.harness.org.au/images/bb_icon.gif Sr17S WadeT McCracken (C,cl) 15.10 $ 5.80 D/R LOC 6FEARLESS LORD http://www.harness.org.au/images/bb_icon.gif Fr66R ErrichielloD R Morris 17.40 $ 2.40 RAS 7WUNDER RANGER http://www.harness.org.au/images/bb_icon.gif Fr44J J MuscatJ J Muscat 17.90 $ 7.50 PRBT D/F$200 UW 8KINGS AND GLORY http://www.harness.org.au/images/bb_icon.gif Fr55D J FarrugiaN S Xuereb (C,cl) 22.30 $ 4.30 PRBT RAS G SD1T ScratchingsAll startedTrack Rating: GOODGross Time: 2:09:5Mile Rate: 1:59:8Lead Time: 9.0First Quarter: 30.7Second Quarter: 31.0Third Quarter: 29.0Fourth Quarter: 29.8Margins: 3.4m x 7.0m
Go to races in this meeting: 1 2 3 4 5 6
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If you look at this link Dan you will see that the winner Warner was the only Odds On runner
http://www.harness.org.au/meeting-re...sw#BKC01081605
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That has changed during the morning Kev, as that page you supplied the link from was the same page I copied and pasted earlier..........
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8 races at Melton tonight but only 3 of them had sufficient runners to pay 3 place divvies - this has to be a worry. Race 3 ended up with only 4 runners and I am not sure there was even a single place dividend looking at the TAB (but there was a massive $120 in the place pool)
https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2016-08-05/MELTON/MLT/H/3
That race was a turnover killer and Emma Stewart's $1.04 faves do not help - maybe we need to schedule her shorties to be Races 1&2 as these early races have easily the best turnover (even with a $1.20 fav in the first)