Originally Posted by
aussiebreno
Tip for Luke (not the one and only tip, just one point to consider, Im sure others have different methods). Say horse on outside covers 28 extra metres. Get beats 15m. That doesn't automatically make it 13m better. For much of the race (the way they usually run) horses are travelling within them self, which mean horse isn't expanding all its energy. If you running 32 quarters in the first half you can keep up quite easily without expanding much more material energy. If a faster paced race with first half in say 30 quarters it much harder for outside horses to keep that pace. Same phenomenon in our bodies. If we run within ourselves (32 quarters) we can still have a final sprint so sitting outside wasn't as much a disadvantage. If we running near on full pace (30 quarters) we don't have much of a kick left so sitting outside was a bigger disadvantage.
So inside horse running at 65% may mean outside horse needs to run at 70% to keep pace in a 32 quarter. In a 30 quarter inside horse running at 80% pace means outside horse needs to run 85% pace. The way the aerobic and anaerobic systems work, you can keep a steady pace for a long time, but as soon as you start pushing you fade dramatically quicker. This means outside horses working harder especially when the pace is on have a significant disadvantage. Off a slow pace even though they covered 28m more extra they still entitled to fight on. Off a fast pace if they covering 28m more then its much harder to do and entitled to stop. If Luke can come up with an algorithm to incorporate pace into distance beaten he might land two winners instead of one!!!