I know its on Harnesslink & lots would have read it but I'm posting it anyway so more can....
http://www.harnesslink.com/News/Bros...ame-s-buggered-
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I know its on Harnesslink & lots would have read it but I'm posting it anyway so more can....
http://www.harnesslink.com/News/Bros...ame-s-buggered-
Trish, I am going to quote this again in a new thread 'Brosnan winds down - the game is buggered' and reply there as I promised TC that if something was deserving of a thread I would help him out by doing that. If it is likely that a post will get a few replies and as such he would prefer them it not to be in Odds and EndsQuote:
Originally Posted by trish
NB 'Brosnan winds down - the game is buggered' now has its own thread for replies folks
http://www.harnesslink.com/News/Bros...hlight=Brosnan
Trish posted this in Odds and Ends but I have started its own thread for it - as it is likely to garner responses (me for starters)
If you find the above link does not open for you just type 'Brosnan' in the search box on the Harnesslink home/news page (I often find that I get a Not Found message when I click on our own boards links!)
Trish what do you think of adjusting the drop back system to 6 starts in NZ (as Richard Brosnan suggests in the article) - considering there are far fewer meets in NZ
Kev , I don't think it would matter. If horses are winning one race in NZ then come to Aus & win many in a row , I thinks that gives an answer as to why its buggered.
Bronsoan's like a lot of Aus trainers who used to win a number of races every year but now can not keep up. Even if they did drop back to 6 it still costs & the drop back system in itself is an act of desperation.
What do you think?
To have to the drop back system in the first place shows you that something is very wrong.
A leading trainer said the other day he's going to do what everyone else does & drop back to get in an easier race with his open class horse, if its their they will use it.
I am having trouble getting my head around why so many horses can only win one race. Who is winning the C1's in NZ?Quote:
Originally Posted by trish
I sometimes wonder whether if you are thinking 'my turn will come around' - it is has to be much easier when the fields are small. Whenever I look up an imported NZ horse I regularly see they have been racing in fields of 14 - fields of 7 or 8 at Mildura are a much easier proposition
Why can horses win a few in Australia but not in NZ? Are our horses crap opposition for imports or are there just more races to choose from for the imports?
I attend a few meets in Western Vic and I cannot help but notice that in many races eg C1, I will see 70% of the field is the same horses that raced against each other last week. About half of them find some form and have their turn at winning before 10 starts go by.
I follow Mildura too and about 1/3 of the fields are made up of Cramp trained horses and they all seem to find (multiple) races to win
With Richard Brosnan, I wonder whether the horses from his stable that have been sold were supposed to be his bread and butter horses
I looked up RB's 2014 season and saw he had 9 winners. There are around 77 trainers ahead of him but if he had had 12 winners there would only be about 55 ahead of him. One horse can make a big diff.
http://infohorse.hrnz.co.nz/datahr/p...ship-Both.htm#
There are only 2 trainers with over 100 winners
In Australia with 3 weeks still to go we have
14 trainers with over 100 winners with the possibility of 20 making it. On top of that we have 4 who will top 200
http://www.harness.org.au/ausbreed/r...425?d=10082014
I do not know where to find Total races run and whether this number has declined in NZ. We know Aust being bigger has a lot more races but I do not know if the margin is growing
I can't quite lay my hands on the absolute info by as a ball park figure...
4 meetings per week.
12 races per meeting.
av stakes $10,000
Meetings generally.. 1 C0 Trot, 1 C1 faster Trot, 3 C0 Pace, 3 C1 pace, 1 C2 pace, 1 C3 fast pace, 1 3yo C0/C1 pace. roughly.
There are conditioned races scattered throughout the calendar. We have what's called Permier meets like NZ Cup day etc where min stakes are 20k but that is further limited this year with a reduction in premier days.
Generally speaking as you can see not much room to move when each race averages 12 starters.
End result very few horses moving through the classes hence our best options have been to export where NZ imports have often in the past filled your fields. Now with the HRA tax it's another option gone.
I think it's fair to say NZ has always produced more horses than their racing can cater for, thats why they have been big exporters to AUS and North America for decades and decades, the biggest problem people like Richeard Brosnan have been facing is attracting paying clients who want to RACE horses. There are so many reasons this is happening and it's not just happening in NZ, it's happening here, the USA and Canada as well.
One of those reasons is the payback owners are getting/not getting ( and the reasons for this are many, including an increase in the number of races being won by a smaller number of trainers, hence reducing the payback for everyone else)
Another is exposure, the game is shrinking everywhere and we are still marketing the game to existing participants/followers. This has been going on for 25 years at least and we still have our heads stuck in the sand. FFS!!! we need to involve more people from more diverse backgrounds if the game is going to survive, much less flourish.
Sorry to have got off topic slightly , but the article is about a former big player going out in relatively humble fashion, and he's not the first and unless things change dramaticallty he will not be the last.
cheers
Dan
Following on from Dan's comments. If you look at the National top 10 trainers by State, some interesting stats appear.
If you total the number of starters the whole top 10 have had to date by state, the top 3 trainers have had the following starters.
Vic 42.4%
WA 47.8%
Tas 40.4%
SA 34.7%
Qld 48.4%
NSW 41.8%
Yes the pool of trainers is shrinking, leading trainers I assume charge more, owners need a return or they go somewhere else.
I gather those figures are for the top 3 from the top 10 of each state. Even if the top 10 was very close, you are going to see the top 3 have 30+% so those percentages are not mind blowing really but I know the point you and Dan are making
Using my Vic Only Winning Trainers database (for TAB meetings only)
The Top 15 trainers have won 1072 out of the possible 3560 races ie over 30%
My db lists 579 trainers winning at least one race in Vic
The top 15 is only 2.6% of 579
2.6% of trainers winning 30% of races
I can then take that figure in 2 directions
I could factor in all the trainers who are not on my db because they have not won a race
I am thinking the 2.6% would then become something like
<2% of trainers winning 30% of races (that is allowing for 200 non winning trainers)
The other way I could go would be to eliminate all the hobby trainers from my db
Would halving the 579 be enough? (Saying that there are 290 pro/semi pros)
If so then you could say
5.2% (2.6 x 2) of pro/semi pro trainers are winning 30% of the races
Even if I said there were only about 150 pro/semi pro trainers
that still equates to
10% of them winning 30% of the races
It would seem the pie is definitely not being shared around enough
The other argument would be that as well as the hobby trainers there should only be about 50 pro/semi pro trainers for the size of the Vic market
Some time back I can remember mentioning how little in stakes some of these top trainers are even bringing in
Looking at the linked table, Shayne Cramp for instance has <$800k of prizemoney
http://www.harness.org.au/ausbreed/r...425?d=11082014
He is Victoria's leading trainer by winners.
He obviously makes most of his money from training fees BUT on that return to owners I doubt they are very far ahead
(lets say 50 horses in the stable through the course of the season costing owners $15k each in fees etc)
Back to NZ. I would think that the NZ industry would be similar in size to the Vic industry
Would I be right in thinking that there are at least 50 pro/semi pro trainers in NZ?
Can't argue with what you say Dan.Quote:
Originally Posted by Danno
The problem for people like Richard Brosnan is he is as honest as the day is long. I can assure you that he is an oats and chaff man. What you see is what you get.
So not only does he have to cope with an outdated handicapping system, but he is playing by the rule book when most are not.
There is a major problem coming in New Zealand on top of everything else in the form of dramatically smaller foal crops.
Our racing at the moment is running on foal crops of 3000 or close to it.
The reality is shortly that foal crop will be closer to 2000 than 3000
At that point something has to give.
Either New Zealand or Australia via imports is going to take a hit.
And the response to that problem from the powers that be is zero.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
Kev, with respect, statistical analysis doesn't always give you the real lie of the land. I would suggest that a very large % of the horses in the Cramp barn are there on "deals" and usually it's no cost to the owner for a fixed % of the stakes earnt, thus his training fee income would be insignificant. Most horses have been somewhere else beforehand, The NZ industry racing wise is much, much smaller than Australia, hence the export option and as Viv has pointed out is going to get smaller through the reduction in breeding.
http://www.hrv.org.au/hrv/index.cfm/...ers-directory/
The above is a link to the HRV Licence Holders Directory - If I could have dropped it into excel in an easier format I would have done an analysis for you. The first thing that hits you is the vast number of licenced trainers or drivers and I would suggest that 85% are in the hobbyist category. That is harness racings bread and butter and its heartland, burn them and you have nothing left. As well as winners you have to look at runners and who is providing them.
[QUOTE=Messenger;34974]I am having trouble getting my head around why so many horses can only win one race. Who is winning the C1's in NZ?
With Richard Brosnan, I wonder whether the horses from his stable that have been sold were supposed to be his bread and butter horses
Hi Kev . When you have a horse in NZ that may win 3 or 4 races over a period of time , making you zero dollars in the end . Would you keep racing it or take 20K - 30K from someone in Australia ?
Thanks for the link. With 20 pages of Vic Licence holders there, I figure that to be about 1200, and so my estimate of around 800 participating trainers in Vic may not be too far under as I imagine there would be a fair few non participating/retired Licence holdersQuote:
Originally Posted by Mister JayKO
In estimating how many pro/semi pro trainers Vic might be able to 'properly' support you would have noticed that I said "as well as the hobby trainers"
I hope you are not suggesting I am talking about burning hobbyists - if so you have not read many of my posts
[QUOTE=trish;35003]I hear you Trish. The thing is that they are the owners - as far as the trainer goes they may as well just be moving them to another stable - we hear from Richard how it is hurting him. It makes for a debate as to whether trainers need a share in most of the horses they train so that Sales are income for them too.Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
Would Aussie's be paying that much for ordinary horses? They are not going to make a buck either of course.
Apart from bread and butter horses most successful trainers need an A grader every couple of seasons - you have to hold onto a couple with potential or you have not got a ticket in the lottery (once again the trainer needs a share/a say)
Hi Kev . The bottom feeders are growing in numbers as the big name trainers expand . The big trainers are appearing at all of the tracks now so you can't get away from them . Having a share in nothing is still nothing . If the trainer owns a share he or she can't charge as much and will loose whatever he makes in the sale . I hope this new divided stakes system can help some of these small guys from being cannon fodder , but I think we'll be racing for less prize money in the end .
The first sign that you have a nice horse in New Zealand and your phone will ring off the wall. The battle then is to hold on to it. I had a share in a nice trotter here a couple of years back. Won 4 fairly quickly and the money for him was stupid. You have to take the money because you are never going to win anything close to it here. Kiwis are sellers for a whole lot of reasons and Richard has covered some of those but trainers here are battling and Richard will have company in the next few months.
I agree Viv . One thing about the Kiwi horses is that they are generally very well educated . Horsemanship still means a great deal over there. Most horses come over ready for mobile or stands . They're complete race horses .
[QUOTE=Messenger;35005]Quote:
Originally Posted by trish
Very few if any horses in NZ make anything close to break even.
As Trish says if someone in Aussie offered you 20k-30k would you take it or keep racing? You'd take the dosh and so would the trainer. After all he / she gets 10% minimum. We are a marketplace for others. that is how we best survive but as viv said this years foal crop is now below 2000. There must be a few more close up shops to come.
[QUOTE=teecee;35015]DOOMSDAY!!!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
>>VVV>> Horsemanship also covers feet and teeth...and somebody clearly forgot to tell many Kiwi horsemen about those aspects. The number of Kiwi horses that turn up over here with quarter cracked/abscessed/ generally buggered up feet and mouths like bear traps is staggering. Little wonder so many improve so quickly. Handicapping and Husbandry relief combined. BOOOOOOOOM!Quote:
Originally Posted by trish
[QUOTE=teecee;35015]It is very disturbing to see our sport shrinking so rapidly in both countries. I hope someone smart can arrest the slide else I can't imagine where we will be in another 20 years.Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
[QUOTE=eliteblood;35024]I don't know about you Trev but realistically most of us are gunna be dead . Along with harness racing .Quote:
Originally Posted by teecee
[QUOTE=trish;35025]Now THAT IS DISTURBING :-)Quote:
Originally Posted by eliteblood
What is really disturbing is that clearly old mate has failed to move with the times and now he's potting the Industry that has fed and clothed him and blaming his lack of success on everyone else. Take a leaf or two from Mark Purdon's book brother. Spread your wings. Come over and buy a few big $ Futurity/Stakes eligible AUS breds and race them here.
You might be a little harsh there Jaimie (and maybe he has been too) as the article suggests he has been an active advocate for change for at least a decade.Quote:
Originally Posted by Triple V
I must admit that I did think that at 66 many pro trainers would hope to have put something away and be winding down a little
Exactly, Purdons got a barn full of nice horses from doing exactly this and I'm pretty sure that Follow the Stars wasn't his most expensive purchase. If you want to compete with the better horses, You certainly need to spread your wings and have a good look around at all of the options, Oz & Nz and get over here for the Gold sales because their were quite a few bargain buys in the last couple of years and M. Purdon continues to prove this.Quote:
Originally Posted by Triple V
Couldn't agree more Richard ,sold one to marks clients this year ,fully professional and you keep updated on his website how is going. Mr brosnan in all fairness ,it know different to any other industry there always someone to take your spot,you have always have to get new clients to survive and if you wind down a bit the new bigger stables look better and end up with most of the horses that just a fact of life. Like Jamie said don't blame the industry that fed you for 40 years. The money in 2 or 3 yld racing is enormous now. I know there is a lot of c1 that can't win a race or earn much money but it no different in the dogs or the gallops. Since the country money has gone up in Vic I think the industry is a little more positive . I had more phone calls in the last 2 months enquiring about horses for lease or sale. I recently syndicated a Cullen yearling and I could have sold it six times. I don't think our foal crop will drop much further ,but the quality of horse is improving rapidly. If someone can explain to me Rock n roll first crop ,almost half have already run or qualified this early in there season (103) there mares are better than ours,and it will change her ,we've all been guilty of breading with mares we shouldn't have been.Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard prior
E
Hi Greg, I think it's the great unknown factor with breeding from your mares, You never know when a real good one might pop out and there has been plenty of great horses from mares with ordinary families. Bettor's Delight is a Classic example, From what I have read, His family was looked upon as pretty ordinary until Matt's Scooter came along and he was fantastic on the track and also pretty good in the barn, A little later Bettor's came along from the same maternal family and he was also pretty good on the track and once he went to stud, The floodgates have well and truly opened up, He is just an astonishing stallion and I think that his figures are up in the area of $155 million and there's every chance he might just rewrite the record books.
I will pass all your knowledgeable suggestions on to Richard. After all he only has $4,000,000 + as a trainer on his card. Never did win the trainers premiership in New Zealand but did finish second and third the odd time and did train a few champions like Bonnies Chance and No Response. Knowing Richard I am sure he will give your advice all the consideration it deserves.Quote:
Originally Posted by cyclone george
Spent his whole life training had a few great horses im sure he had a go,its just easier when you get the good horses and we know why some trainers get the majority of the good ones ,by the way anyone know where Excel Stride has gone
I think he got sick, could be wrong but hasn't raced since this
Final Results - Race 4 NSWHRC at TABCORP PK MENANGLE 12 October 2013 http://www.harness.org.au/images/video-trotstv.gif
Brainless comments like the above show an appalling lack of knowledge. So please explain why Richard had so many good horses. I would love to know the reasonQuote:
Originally Posted by kung fu man
Gee that's a bit harsh. Don't know the man at all but I think his results over many years should be respected and maybe his opinion should also be respected. You are entitled to your opinion but gee.Quote:
Originally Posted by kung fu man
Dont really understand what you mean Vic i wasnt saying anything bad about Richards training but over the time he has trained youd hope to get some good ones its just the real good ones always end up in a few large stables ,that seems the case in eastern Australia anywayQuote:
Originally Posted by Viv Strangman
Sorry if I misinterpreted what you said. I thought you were implying Richard was one of the "whiz" boys.
Richards problem is he is too honest and straight but I respect him enormously due to that. You can buy a horse off Richard and know that what you see is what you get. He has a reputation second to none for integrity but that doesn't pay the bills.