Interesting Change to Exclude 3yo's from C0 races

"Harness Racing Victoria (HRV) will restrict all C0 class races in Victoria from November 1 to four-year-old and older pacers.

The programming adjustment follows analysis of open-age C0 races in the 2017-18 season, which revealed:

From 162 races run, 74 comprised one or more 3YO starters (45.68%)
Of those 74 races, 52 were won by a 3YO (70.27%)
A 3YO started favourite in 62 of those 74 races (83.78%), winning on 42 occasions (67.74%)
Of those 42 wins, 36 were odds-on favourites (85.71%), while 30 were $1.40 or shorter (71.43%)

........."

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/art...vicbred-bonus/

Essentially I think it's more to reduce the odds on favs then to make it easier to win the Vicbred bonus for 4yo and older horses.

I am wondering though if it will have the unexpected consequence of 4yo C0's leaving the pool of racehorses sooner once they have won one race and their Vicbred bonus. Can't claim or drop back from a C1 to a C0 and they'll now be contending with the winning 3yos twice in the already stronger C1 class and I'm tipping many of these 3yos won't start much longer in C1 class then they do in the C0s. Perhaps the Vicbred bonus needs to be awarded in part for the C0 win and C1 win to keep these horses in the racing pool with prospect of obtaining a bonus until they attain C2 class, and drop back, mares and junior driver concessions apply.

But on the positive side it is the beginning of "movement at the station" at least, but probably more in the order of moving a problem more then fixing it.

Been saying it for bloody ages, drop back clauses and mares/junior drivers concessions all require a major re-jigg...( if there is such a word) whilst there has always been horses that can win a maiden, but never another as long as their bum points backwards.

The number of the aforesaid have risen dramatically with the introduction of the drop back clause/rule...in my humble opinion, the rules for horses coming back are way too generous to the superior horse and provide too little protection to his opposite number....should we move the number of non-winning runs out to 15?...should we have a more complex but perhaps fairer system that takes into account ALL of the horse's form prior to a drop back is permitted?

I really think those sorts of options need to be researched because what we are doing at the moment is not quite right, but don't get me started about junior drivers concessions, I was one of the people calling for the juniors to get a hand up years ago, but it has gradually evolved into a massive handout of ridiculous proportions.

Are some being cynical too fast?

If this programming was in place last season - 52 more owners / breeders may have earned their Vicbred bonuses. @$7,000 per win, that's an additional $364,000 returned to the Vic HR industry.
This is significant. This makes sense using real data and participant feedback. This fixes a big problem. Well done David Martin.

Have you ever had a futurities eligible 4yo + maiden that keeps missing their first win and subsequent futurities bonus because they're competing with good 3yo's?

Here's a real-life example - my ex 4yo Maiden filly - 29 starts - 0 wins, 7 placings. (below average filly)

This is what happens... you race and race your horse chasing that bonus that you've being paying up for since the horse was a foal. You own the dam etc. and it's important to get that horse to win.

You've invested so much and place a few times and so keep trying. You travel thinking that racing might be a little easier at Bathurst or Newcastle.

Unfortunately, the handicapping kills you. 1. you struggle to find a "true" maiden pace and 2. the competing 3yo's are too good for you.

On start 29, we go to Newcastle in a C0 for 3yo+ and run 5th beaten 4.7m. We lead from barrier 5 however are burned out of the gate and death seated by a 3yo in the race. MR 1:59.1

On start 30, we go back to Newcastle in a C0 4yo+ and win by 2.9m. MR 2:03.6. Great result, get our bonus and spend it on breeding.

Then raced twice as a C1 at Penrith and was flogged by around 50 metres so sold the filly interstate.

There are nearly 400 C0 races between now 30th Nov in NSW. Only around 10% (40) are restricted to 4yo+.

How many of these 3yo's are NZ bred?

If the stats are similar to VIC, then NSW might be missing real opportunities to reward NSW customers / participants.

Richard being able to win the bonus more easily is not a bad thing. Having the bonus re invested in breeding is not a bad thing. Having the favourite in C0s start at longer odds is not a bad thing. Having these now C1s leave the state that "paid" for them or the industry altogether because they are no chance in C1 class, which is already a bottleneck because of the dropback clauses, having contributed less overall starts to the industry because they didn't need to to win their bonus is a bad thing. That's not being cynical, that's recognising that there may be consequences that wernt intended or expected in formulating the changes.

This is fine provided there are races for good 3yos still. You get a good 3yo, nominate it and the field falls apart every time. You dont want to race a 3yo in metro races so what do you do?

I'm sure owners of a C1 are looking forward to being beaten by the same horse 2 weeks in a row ...

Quote:

Originally Posted by KTQ

This is fine provided there are races for good 3yos still. You get a good 3yo, nominate it and the field falls apart every time. You dont want to race a 3yo in metro races so what do you do?

My thought exactly Katie! I have been trying to raise awareness of the situation facing 3 year olds and their OWNERS in Victoria for some time now ; to no avail. Now we have to race C1 horses and under the numerous restrictions on barrier draws the 3 year olds will draw badly as well. Victoria do not program Metro races for 3 year olds. For many 3 year olds it is their first season of racing , to expect them to continue to race against mentally and physically stronger horses ( 4/5/6 year olds ) is foolhardy. Young horses need to be nurtured and developed to have a racing career not just a season. Decisions in Vic are made without due consultation and without regard for young horses and their owners. It is all about the punting dollar not those who have skin in the game ! I would like to ask David Martin , where do we race our 3 year olds and look after them ?

I think this programing change is a good idea. Maybe they could have one C0 per month that allows 3yo's to run.

Theres a vast difference between 3yos who won their 2races in $5000 maiden and maiden and one win company and those who scored them in group company. The former should still be eligible for C0 company and the later should slot into C company at higher then C1 imo.

Katie, Ann, I'd prefer 3yos race each other too, but it appears that there aren't enough "good" 3yos and just as you don't want your good 3yo racing older horses others don't want their lesser 3yos racing the better ones either. Maybe metro and higher assessed country races for "good" 3yos should be programmed differently, 50% to the winner perhaps and more prizemoney distributed down the line to help these races stand up and develop the careers of 3yos.

Of course that is customising our product, something it appears the various administrations are not prepared to do.

At present in Vic in a $7k race they pay $3990 to the winner = 57%, if we were to take it down to 50% that is only another $490 to distribute, maybe take it down to 45% and that would be $840 extra
Would $3150, $1200, $830, $480, $340, $200 x 5, be anymore attractive and get a full field of 3yo's?

Must admit I didn't check the current %ages Kev, but I wasn't thinking of $7k country fronts, but metro fronts which are $16k or better, and perhaps country oaks, guineas and derbies which should be min $10k, preferably more, and the %ages may need tweaking. Ann and Katie's concerns are about looking after and preparing the better 3yos for fast class racing as older horses. It's reasonable to assume that less talented or slower developing 3yos will have ample opportunity to race other 3yos whilst attaining their 2wins in regular prizemoney distribution country fronts, or they could be more inclined to chance their luck against better 3yos for a larger share of the purse in placemoney for metro and country feature races.

Certain a change in prizemoney distribution was used successfully in NSW to grow the trotters ranks.

I used the $7k example as I thought I could remember Ann saying that there were not enough 3yo races programmed/standing up as a lead into those races you mention Dot

Ann may have said that Kev, but scratch everything I've said,there are no races in Victoria for 3yos worth more then $10k programmed, in fact there are only 4 $10k races for 3yos programmed between now and the end of the year, and only one race, yes one race for 3yos assessed higher then 3A1 before Dec 30.

Perhaps David Martin could explain why anyone would want to pay up to race a 3yo in Victoria for the next 3 and a half months at least instead of sending them to NSW where there is a $9450 3yo race every week at Menangle, 4 $10k heats a month into a $20k final once a month, races for 3yos up to 3A2 and they still get to race COs when they are 3A2s.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dot

Ann may have said that Kev, but scratch everything I've said,there are no races in Victoria for 3yos worth more then $10k programmed, in fact there are only 4 $10k races for 3yos programmed between now and the end of the year, and only one race, yes one race for 3yos assessed higher then 3A1 before Dec 30.

Perhaps David Martin could explain why anyone would want to pay up to race a 3yo in Victoria for the next 3 and a half months at least instead of sending them to NSW where there is a $9450 3yo race every week at Menangle, 4 $10k heats a month into a $20k final once a month, races for 3yos up to 3A2 and they still get to race COs when they are 3A2s.

And they run the Derby in Feb. No wonder Kiwis have auch a great record in it.