Speed and class

I'm not in the group of people that thinks speed equals class. I'm also not of the mind that class is entirely separate from speed. There's a belief that whilst they're related, and correlated, that they aren't necessarily one and the same.

However, I can go to just about every database of times for each course and distance [and I've got about five months of data so far for every track that gives out its times] and find where good horses really started showing their quality.

For instance, if I pull up the stats for Wagga, I know that the best 1755m mile rate since October was California Sunset on the 7th December, race 6: C1. The 4yo gelding was the first horse three-wide at the bell and embarrassed the majority of the field in a first up run since July. Unless something goes awfully wrong, I can see this horse winning at M rated races within a few months.

Most of the horses that are rated at less than C3, which post times that surpass the course-and-distance averages by 20% or more, almost invariably go on to be M class horses. Chisnall NZ is another fine example - its first run in-country was at Tamworth, 25th of October, race 3. Whilst the time overall wasn't incredible, the third quarter was in the 86th percentile of times for that course and distance, and its fourth quarter was ranked in the 95th percentile of 1980m Tamworth final quarters. The 5yo mare came 5th at its next start, only to post a very fast mile rate the following race as the first of five straight wins: only beaten in the Maitland Inter City Pace. It stands to reason that time can be correlated strongly with class, since this mare went from a Tamworth "no better than R3" race to a Maitland Group 2 in seven starts, contesting against the likes of Scandalman NZ.

Of course, the tracks make a difference. Running a mile rate of 2 minutes at Melton isn't the same as running a 2:00 mile rate at Mildura, nor does suggesting that "20% above the average time of Junee races is the same as 20% above the average of Menangle times". Quite clearly, the quality of horse that goes around Menangle would generally be better than those than pace around the Junee track. The best mile rate I've found at the Junee track for the 1760m was on the 26th of January 2012, race 2 C1/2 - the horses that finished close-up 1 and 2 have, in their entire careers, made a combined total of just over $63,000 in prizemoney.

At the other end, Gifted Bliss posted one of the best R0 mile rates in my database at Penrith on the 29th of November, race 2 - first up, to boot. It was moderately above the averages for Penrith, but for an R0 runner first up, it's a sign of a very good pacer. It has gone on to win six of its following seven starts, and looks like a metro class horse for sure.

Whilst I don't subscribe to the idea that speed is class, classy horses tend to be fast.