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Thread: The New Ratings Based Handicapping System

  1. #1
    Senior Member 4YO KTQ will become famous soon enough
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    The New Ratings Based Handicapping System


  2. #2
    Senior Member 4YO Fan of Jate will become famous soon enough
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    Good one KTQ- I have complained strongly about this handicapping system to HRA and will be getting my word in again.

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    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    The recent interview with Dale Monteith posted elsewhere

    https://vimeo.com/202591740

    would indicate it IS going to happen
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  4. #4
    Senior Member Colt alphastud will become famous soon enough
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    Some of the current Handicapping + Grading is dumb. We all make mistakes. I make a lot and my thinking below might be another.

    I understand that there are industry challenges due to factors such as foal numbers etc. however some aspects of the current system only appeal to a few.

    Below are examples of the current policy's and issues regarding handicapping and grading;

    Example1: short priced favs
    we want less short prices favs. However, the system consistently allows “out of class” horses to compete in lower grade races. The system is creating shorter priced favs. Here’s the really dumb part. The system then allows these “out of class” horses to enter a lower grade race and draw as good or better than the horses that they should be handicapped against. E.g. a C3 mare in a C1 only race with a concession driver drawing barrier 1. They can draw 1 whether it’s PBD or RBD.

    Example2: 12 horse fields
    The 12-horse field strategy has been created to offset the problem of short priced favs. Reduce the # of short priced favs and we don’t need a 12 horse field. I’d like to know how much a 12 horse field actually helps betting when we have a short priced fav drawn favourably. I’m guessing it’s negligible.

    Example3: increasing C0 and C1
    We have worrying and increasing trend of C0 and C1 racehorses. How hasn’t this already rang alarm bells?


    I had a good conversation with Cameron Brown from HRA who is facilitating this handicapping review project. He's a lot more than his title of Finance Manager suggests however us, the industry, the customer and the stakeholders need to drive change for it to improve. Handicappers and Administrators created the current system and so I'm not confident that they have the answers.

    I’m thinking about getting involved in the workshop in Melbourne to strongly represent the thoughts of owners, trainers and breeders. I know that many think that this and other things don’t get anywhere however I can promise that if I do go, it won’t be for the scones and cakes. And it won’t cost you anything.

    I’d only do this if I could first get at least 30 owners, trainers and breeders to run through a workshop with me (before the event) as I want to represent you and your ideas and not just mine.

    I doubt that merely forwarding a submission will do too much. I won’t be doing that. It hasn’t changed much in the past.
    I speak to many harness racing participants. A lot of them make sense and have valid ideas however aren’t great at expressing themselves. I’d like to help.

    This could be a 2 or 3 hour workshop in the Penrith area. My email richard@alphastud.com.au or call me 0417 227 768.
    Last edited by alphastud; 03-03-2017 at 01:15 AM.

  5. #5
    Super Moderator Horse Of The Year teecee has a spectacular aura about teecee's Avatar
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    http://www.hrnz.co.nz/news-and-event...stem-documents

    This RBHS has been trialled in the Nth Island since late last year with generally positive feedback from participants. Naturally such systems have some drawbacks but its success has meant it is to be rolled out throughout the Sth Island and thus the whole of NZ from March 17.
    We were told recently at a meeting of participants that HRA has shown such interest in this system for consideration of use in Aussie. It may be worth a browse.

  6. #6
    Senior Member 4YO Fan of Jate will become famous soon enough
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    Good work Richard.


    All of your examples are spot on.


    I get very annoyed at the handicapping system in place. The "out of class" issue is a monster and needs to be stopped. I also think that if they are singleminded/determined and get the right policies and procedures in place that it will dramatically improve, there needs to be a bit of "blood on the tracks" though. You cant make major change to systems where money is involved without a few blood noses. I would be willing to participate in a workshop but only electronically due to location.


    Good luck with it.

  7. #7
    Senior Member Stallion aussiebreno is just really nice aussiebreno is just really nice
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    Quote Originally Posted by alphastud View Post
    Some of the current Handicapping + Grading is dumb. We all make mistakes. I make a lot and my thinking below might be another.

    I understand that there are industry challenges due to factors such as foal numbers etc. however some aspects of the current system only appeal to a few.

    Below are examples of the current policy's and issues regarding handicapping and grading;

    Example1: short priced favs
    we want less short prices favs. However, the system consistently allows “out of class” horses to compete in lower grade races. The system is creating shorter priced favs. Here’s the really dumb part. The system then allows these “out of class” horses to enter a lower grade race and draw as good or better than the horses that they should be handicapped against. E.g. a C3 mare in a C1 only race with a concession driver drawing barrier 1. They can draw 1 whether it’s PBD or RBD.

    Example2: 12 horse fields
    The 12-horse field strategy has been created to offset the problem of short priced favs. Reduce the # of short priced favs and we don’t need a 12 horse field. I’d like to know how much a 12 horse field actually helps betting when we have a short priced fav drawn favourably. I’m guessing it’s negligible.

    Example3: increasing C0 and C1
    We have worrying and increasing trend of C0 and C1 racehorses. How hasn’t this already rang alarm bells?


    I had a good conversation with Cameron Brown from HRA who is facilitating this handicapping review project. He's a lot more than his title of Finance Manager suggests however us, the industry, the customer and the stakeholders need to drive change for it to improve. Handicappers and Administrators created the current system and so I'm not confident that they have the answers.

    I’m thinking about getting involved in the workshop in Melbourne to strongly represent the thoughts of owners, trainers and breeders. I know that many think that this and other things don’t get anywhere however I can promise that if I do go, it won’t be for the scones and cakes. And it won’t cost you anything.

    I’d only do this if I could first get at least 30 owners, trainers and breeders to run through a workshop with me (before the event) as I want to represent you and your ideas and not just mine.

    I doubt that merely forwarding a submission will do too much. I won’t be doing that. It hasn’t changed much in the past.
    I speak to many harness racing participants. A lot of them make sense and have valid ideas however aren’t great at expressing themselves. I’d like to help.

    This could be a 2 or 3 hour workshop in the Penrith area. My email richard@alphastud.com.au or call me 0417 227 768.
    Mares with a concession claim is the worst. Wagga Race 1 this Saturday night Holm Three made it an unbettable race as I liked an outsider - now it is scratched I will be having a bet.

  8. #8
    Senior Member 4YO p plater will become famous soon enough
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    Richard, race 5 next Tuesday at Menangle C4 or better PBD/C is such a race.
    C4 MO draws 1 and a C15 M3 draws 8
    Add to that a C9 draws outside 2 C11's.....go figure

  9. #9
    Senior Member Colt alphastud will become famous soon enough
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fan of Jate View Post
    Good work Richard.


    All of your examples are spot on.


    I get very annoyed at the handicapping system in place. The "out of class" issue is a monster and needs to be stopped. I also think that if they are singleminded/determined and get the right policies and procedures in place that it will dramatically improve, there needs to be a bit of "blood on the tracks" though. You cant make major change to systems where money is involved without a few blood noses. I would be willing to participate in a workshop but only electronically due to location.


    Good luck with it.
    Thanks for your feedback Pat. If we get it up then I'll provide a gotmeeting link so that you can help. Thanks Brendan and Bailey.
    Our challenge is that betting revenue is by far and ahead the #1 priority for this industry.
    So how do you increase betting revenue and at what cost?
    More Races, Competitive Races, Advertising, Participation, etc.
    If there is so many C0 and C1 racehorses then why can't we make more competitive races from such a significant pool of horses?
    Short priced favs stifle betting.
    What is the cause of short priced favs?
    Horses racing out of class or unfairly preferenced? Refer to Brendan and Bailey's posts above.
    Leading / X-factor Trainers? How many short priced favs are trained by these trainers?
    What probelms can we review and improve to both increase turnover and add value for participants - breeders, owners etc. ?
    What are the reasons for these problems?
    The 12 horse field strategy is diminishing returns particularly if handicapping and grading isn't improved.

  10. #10
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year arlington will become famous soon enough
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    A bit of crossover here with the APG Sales Syd & Melb commentary.

    In regards to mares claiming both concessions. Sure it can stifle betting but the other consideration is honouring a commitment you've made to an owner when they've purchased a filly at the sales...or bred one. Wise to consider cause and effect when thinking about dishing out, quote, "a few blood noses".

    No question a lot of C1 fields aren't any stronger than some C0's and in the case of the C3 mare drawing well in a C1...hard to gauge how this has helped with increasing, or curbing the decline in, the horse population (it's intention along with building up a broodmare's credentials for her progeny at the sales).

    In my case, I have purchased at the sales with the mare's concession in mind, as well as obtained another two females. But on the flip side I've also owned males. Can't have my cake and eat it too and I'm fully aware of the punting dollar aspect.

    If wiser heads think this should be changed I'd hope any introduction wouldn't dishonour the current obligation.

    Talking for myself as a possible comeback buyer and small breeder to race, an example of changing the goal posts that makes me say possible is the Vicbred Homegrown Series. No coincidence Empire have naming rights and I imagine this little series is an example of David's state based sires racing. However the maximum stake money allowed to be earned to be eligible changed from 6 to $ 10,000. Not that on the fall of the hammer my "Tailamade Lombo" purchase was targeted for this series but if she didn't have "it" this series was introduced for the likes of her, as a 2 & 3yo.
    It's little, or not so little(?), things like this that makes me wary of heading back to the sales as I don't envisage ever competing with Emilio and Mark.

    Btw, there are some vendors who are happy with the prices they receive for the lower tiered stallions.

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