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Thread: New sires

  1. #21
    Member Filly alphastud will become famous soon enough
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    Quote Originally Posted by papagayo View Post
    I may misunderstood but in my eyes you are mixing apples and oranges.

    My original comment was that the maternal family of a stallion is insignifant to the stallion's performance at stud.
    Hi Sturla, this theory is probably against what most believe. Do you have an analysis or review that you can share that supports your theory?

    Thanks

  2. #22
    Member Yearling papagayo will become famous soon enough
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    Quote Originally Posted by alphastud View Post
    Hi Sturla, this theory is probably against what most believe. Do you have an analysis or review that you can share that supports your theory?

    Thanks
    My "theory" is based on the fact that there isn't a single thing to support the opposite. It is my (and I am not the only one) view based on the simple fact that nobody has provided anything to support anything else. ("What most believe" doesn't appeal to me )

    There is nothing concrete (in science itself or any studies/analysis etc) which has proven - or even indicated - that the maternal family of a stallion plays a significant role (by "significant" I mean "statistically significant", i.e. measureably significant).

    The strongest maternal family on the trotting side (which I refer to as it is what I am most familiar with) is undoubtedly the maternal family tracing back to Medio (which is the maternal family of horses such as Mack Lobell, the Hall brothers, Artsplace, Bret Hanover, Speedy Somolli, American Winner, Cambest, Victory Tilly, Wiggle It Jiggleit, Hannelore Hanover etc etc). There is nothing to suggest that stallions from this family produce better than stallions from other family. Some stallions from this family are great, some are good, some are average and some are weak. But there is nothing to suggest that if you have two relatively similar stallions, one from Medio's family and one from another family, the one from Medio's family on average will perform better at stud.
    Last edited by papagayo; 05-08-2018 at 01:52 PM. Reason: corrected grammar

  3. #23
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Sturla, I don't know about empirical evidence but purely on observation - If I have one stallion from the Medio family and one from a less credentialed family, I am going to say there is a greater chance that the Medio one will be successful. I would almost consider it like 'form' - the family has the record on the board. I understand that one off, potential stallion A v B, you might consider it a coin toss but if I am taking a gamble on which family will produce the next big stallion I might go for the Medio family over the other

    If better stallions are mostly from better horses (some exceptions of course and many who are probably never given a chance for commercial reasons) and better horses are mostly from better families - isn't that a correlation of a sort?
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  4. #24
    Member Yearling papagayo will become famous soon enough
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    Quote Originally Posted by Messenger View Post
    If better stallions are mostly from better horses (some exceptions of course and many who are probably never given a chance for commercial reasons) and better horses are mostly from better families - isn't that a correlation of a sort?
    Sorta. But if the maternal family has significance, then stallions from these families must do better than otherwise comparable stallions and that is on paper a different correlation.

    Btw, if maternal family matter, one could also expect stallions to perform better with mares from certain families. Such statistics are available and show clearly that there is no such relation in general.

  5. #25
    Super Moderator Stallion Richard prior will become famous soon enough Richard prior's Avatar
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    Extremely interesting conversation or topic, I’ll have to read it a few times so it sinks in, Hi Sturla, With so many breeding theory’s and choices these days, What are you thoughts on breeding back into the herd?? Just going to comment on some of the above now, Some stallions do click with particular families, I think there’s more than enough evidence to prove that when you have a close look at Classic Families.

  6. #26
    Member Yearling papagayo will become famous soon enough
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    Quote Originally Posted by Richard prior View Post
    Extremely interesting conversation or topic, I’ll have to read it a few times so it sinks in, Hi Sturla, With so many breeding theory’s and choices these days, What are you thoughts on breeding back into the herd??
    To avoid misunderstandings or confusion, what exactly is meant by this?

    Quote Originally Posted by Richard prior View Post
    Just going to comment on some of the above now, Some stallions do click with particular families, I think there’s more than enough evidence to prove that when you have a close look at Classic Families.
    Maybe but what do you have in mind? The two hottest trotting stallions in Europe and NA, Muscle Hill and Ready Cash, have both displayed some extremely clear preferences in terms of damsires but not necessarily in terms of maternal families.

    Muscle Hill have produced well with many kind of mares but none better than daughters of Cantab Hall and Credit Winner:

    Southwind Frank (matfam Molly J)
    Ariana G
    All The Time (full sisters, matfam Minnehaha)
    Manchego (matfam Topsey)

    Resolve (matfam Midnight)
    Bar Hopping (matfam Mambrino Beauty)
    You Know You Do (matfam Lizzie Witherspoon)
    Fly On (matfam Esther)

    and if you look at maternal families as a whole, requiring a minimum of 20 foals to avoid those small groups where the career numbers of one horse makes the group averages representative, the maternal family that has clicked best with Muscle Hill is the Maggie H family (Marion Marauder, Lookslikeachpndale, Odds On Amethyst, Tobin Kronos etc).
    This is not meant to be a comprehensive analysis but rather to illustrate that either damsire or maternal bloodlines are not the same as maternal families.

    So "some stallions do click with particular families" - yes, if you mean certain damsires or certain bloodlines but no if you mean mares from specific maternal families if you ask me

  7. #27
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year Greg Hando will become famous soon enough
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    One sire that could be the next good thing that everyone has forgotten about is For A Reason 33 foals for 15 winners 45% w/f from not the topline mares one to watch
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  8. #28
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    and as you know Greg, we will have a bit of a wait and see as next season he will have nine 2yo's at most while 2019-20 he could have over 50 (with 91 foals)
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  9. #29
    Super Moderator Stallion Richard prior will become famous soon enough Richard prior's Avatar
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    Changeover doing a nice job as well
    59 to the Races
    37 winners @ 18k per starter
    Tintin in America
    20 to the Races
    13 winners @ 24k per starter

  10. #30
    Super Moderator Stallion Richard prior will become famous soon enough Richard prior's Avatar
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    Must say I had some concerns with Changeover and Tintin’s prospects at stud but they seem to be going well and with For A Reason doing a good job, It’s very encouraging for the local industry, All 3 were high class performers on the track

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