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Thread: 2018 MM and the Lead ups

  1. #71
    aussiebreno
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    Quote Originally Posted by Messenger View Post
    6 straight Gp1's and Gavin Lang not driving - seems strange
    Puppet with the drive on Shadow Sax now as well.

  2. #72
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Just shown some betting figures for the night - it was a humungous mistake running a 2yo race straight after MM
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

  3. #73
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year gutwagon will become famous soon enough gutwagon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Messenger View Post
    Just shown some betting figures for the night - it was a humungous mistake running a 2yo race straight after MM
    My local Pub TAB in Bundoora closed at 9.30 on MM night, a few minutes before the race and it's a big venue. That's the sort of support the TAB gives our sport. They are usually open until around 10 but close early if it's quiet.
    Don't die wondering !

  4. #74
    aussiebreno
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    Quote Originally Posted by Messenger View Post
    Just shown some betting figures for the night - it was a humungous mistake running a 2yo race straight after MM
    I didn't mind the scheduling. Can't have the 2yo race early because you need to piggyback the Sat arvo gallops so it needs to be just about last race. The lesser races piggy-backed the Gallops and then we had the Features which should stand strong on their own culminating in the Mile. I like the features culminating with the Mile because it keeps everyones bum on the seat in the lead up. Could possibly have switched the Franco Nelson race to after the Mile as in that race as he was short priced fave but would that have had a net benefit for the whole meeting? The Let It Ride race could have switched but he was short in the market.
    How should it have been scheduled?

  5. #75
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    This large agency's win pools had been well over 50k for lead up races, 170k MM, <5k 2yo - that is a disaster as following race had potential to be 2nd best slot
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

  6. #76
    aussiebreno
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    Quote Originally Posted by Messenger View Post
    This large agency's win pools had been well over 50k for lead up races, 170k MM, <5k 2yo - that is a disaster as following race had potential to be 2nd best slot
    Wherever the 2yo race was scheduled it was going to be a low wagered race. Better to have it when people have switched off and gone to bed rather than earlier in the night. If one of those lead up races of over 50K was after the Mile you run the risk of that race having a much smaller pool as people tune out. Let It Ride was the shortest priced favourite so you wouldn't want to waste that race pre Mile either unless you pushed the Mile back to Race 8 in which case 10.00PM is getting on the late side for a feature. If you raced the Mares race or the Oaks or that M0 ladies race or whatever race after the Mile that race has a much smaller pool so your total turnover for the night is down. They've still pretty much maximised the total turnover for the night, could have had the Let It Ride race and 2yo reversed but what trainer wants to be washing their 2yo at 11pm?

    Edit: Those figures are also drastically different to the TABs tote pools. They had about $35K for lead ups and $16K for 2yo. That is a big difference in % terms. You've got it at the 2yos having <10% of the turnover when TAB has it about 50%.

    2nd edit: Would those smaller 2yo figures also be impacted a tiny bit by not accepting larger fixed odds bets on the 2yos?
    Last edited by aussiebreno; 02-28-2018 at 11:10 PM.

  7. #77
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Brendan, my son-in-law a pro price setter (gallops) for our biggest bookmaker, showed me the figures because he thought we missed a real opportunity. You believe whatever you want
    Last edited by Messenger; 03-01-2018 at 10:02 AM.
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  8. #78
    aussiebreno
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    Didn't suggest you were fudging the figures Kev, just pointing out that it may not have been quite as drastic a result with other agencies.
    The TAB tote is a better indicator for race scheduling as much of the corporate pools is made up from people who have done the form before raceday so those corporate pools aren’t as impacted by impulse betting like the TAB tote pools.
    Admittedly I was looking at NSW pools for Victoria races and results only go back 12 months but the trend is clear with the Hunter Cup and Vic Cup that people tune out and stop betting after the feature no matter what race is on. Those Vic races stood more a chance as well as the feature was 9.00PM whereas Mile was 9.30PM.
    Nighttime harness is a bit different to the gallops, our Get Out Stakes is at 10.30PM and doesn’t attract the same interest as a 5.00PM Get Out Stakes in the gallops.
    How would you have scheduled the night Kev? Very interested to hear how it would have been done better.

  9. #79
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Don't worry about his understanding of harness pools Breno, he is doing gallops because that is the main game.
    The next race their win pool went back into the 40's
    170k, 4k, 40k - spot the problem
    It was not a scheduling mistake it was a programming mistake
    It was a bad idea to have a 2yo race on the card last week
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

  10. #80
    aussiebreno
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    Quote Originally Posted by Messenger View Post
    The next race their win pool went back into the 40's
    170k, 4k, 40k - spot the problem
    It was not a scheduling mistake it was a programming mistake
    It was a bad idea to have a 2yo race on the card last week
    Programming "the process of scheduling something, especially radio or television programmes"

    So the Let It Ride race still got $40K despite being the shortest priced favourite. He was the shortest priced favourites all night so it is to be expected that pool would be smaller than the earlier features.
    The 2yos have to run some time, whether it was two weeks ago or next week they have to run some time and that race will have a small pool whenever it is run. If the issue is running 2yo features at any time of year then that is a completely different subject.

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