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Thread: Odds-on favourites stats in Vic

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  1. #11
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year arlington will become famous soon enough
    Real Name
    Wayne Hayes
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dot View Post
    Not sure your comparing apples with apples Kev, if the other codes don't have as many odds on favs then they can't have as many lose at a meeting so no I can't imagine the uproar but of course all codes can have a short priced favourite lose.

    Most but not all of these races were Vicbred heats which were clearly seeded to spread the better performed, and or likely to be better supported horses across the card which resulted in the short priced favourites in these events. I imagine that pattern will continue across the remainder of the Vicbred series. Perhaps at the conclusion of the series it is time to review the structure of the series.

    Currently it operates as an all in concept during the heats before the cream rise to the top into the semis and then rises further into the final with one or two consolations conducted for those not making the final. It's designed to keep the best horses apart before reaching a crescendo and crowning a champion, not maximise wagering along the way. Perhaps it's time to acknowledge that not all starters are equal and tier the series from the beginning into "gold" and "silver" divisions ( and even "bronze" if there are enough horses) with the "gold" horses competing for higher levels of prizemoney in both the heats and final then horses engaged in the "silver" series, and likewise for horses engaged in a "bronze" series if there was one. Just have heats into a final and consolations and use the prizemoney allocated for the semi finals to fund the two/three tiered series. I'd like to think there are more then some 70 odd 2yos available to race in Vic and a tiered Vicbred series may draw more starters and make more participants feel a part of the Vicbred series and "family". It would pit more like against like from the beginning and as a result should even up the starting prices somewhat though it won't of course guarantee an odds on pop doesn't get beaten.

    An interesting take on it Dot, the heats. Pretty sure it's owner and trainer splits not seeding. Would be appalled if it was seeding. If the heats were, and will continue to be, formed due to splits, would that change your thoughts and what you've proposed? Is splitting outdated with the increase and promotion of syndication?

    edit: Kyle's relevant post #12 reminded me of the thread topic. Splits are causing odds on faves.
    Last edited by arlington; 06-20-2018 at 11:43 AM.

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