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Thread: Odds-on favourites stats in Vic

  1. #61
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    2/9, 5/11, 4/8 Cobram

    = 66/132
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  2. #62
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    5/8, 3/7, 2/8, 7/8, 3/10 Shep

    = 86/173

    So we continue to track at 50% odds on favourites
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  3. #63
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    4/10, 4/7, 5/7, 4/11, 1/6 Geelong

    = 104/214
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  4. #64
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    5/10, 2/12, 4/8, 4/7 Cranbourne

    = 119/251

    47.4% coming down a bit

    It wouldn't surprise me that once the system has been in place for about a year and we are no longer using the transition table, then this number will come down (I hope so)
    2yo's and 3yo's do however have the advantage of ratings points above the starting 40 or 50 points is halved when they go up an age
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  5. #65
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    At various times this thread has illustrated that very often odds on favourites lose

    I found it strange that the HRV bets story this week shows 5 successful big bets ($18k - $60k)
    and yet in the unsuccessful $4k was the biggest ???

    https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/art...60-000-plunge/
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  6. #66
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    We had an abundance of VERY short favs at Melton tonight

    $1.20 $2.70 $1.30 $1.10 $2.70 $1.04 $1.10

    I was looking at the Vic TAB turnover to see if they affected turnover

    At best I could see that there was around 25% more in the win pools in the two races with the longer odds favourites (although all win pools were small)

    BUT any thought that Long Odds On are bad for betting went out the window in the last where despite Poster Boy being $1.10, the Win, the Place, the Trifecta, the First Four (the one's I look at) were all easily the BIGGEST of the night
    Of course there could be a bit of 'get out in the last' going on BUT still

    http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...s/?mc=MX230520

    ps There was $51,192 in the Quaddie pool (and that is after 20% has been taken in commission)
    Maybe heaps of people took Jason Bonnington's $100 suggested in Good Form - he suggested taking the winning combination 50 times (it paid $7.40)
    Last edited by Messenger; 05-24-2020 at 01:22 AM.
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  7. #67
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    Nothing is assessed shorter than $2.70 at Cranbourne today (by Rob Auber, I think)
    It will be interesting to see how it turns out
    Mind you Emma Stewart doesn't go to Cranbourne

    http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...s/?mc=CR271220
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  8. #68
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    Well we ended up with 3 in the red including $1.20 in R1 but Rob's tips were on the mark
    with 4 winners and 2 thirds from 7 picks (one race his selection was scratched)
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  9. #69
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    No Favourites won at Warragul today
    3 Odds On pops beaten
    I reckon it has been a while since I saw a favourite at the odds of $5.10 (R7)

    http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...21#WRC14062103
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  10. #70
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    R2 at Bendigo tonight, somehow no.7 Outside Fighter was sent out $1.70 fav
    A young driver who happens to be part owner (and breeder) drove for luck and once 4 back pegs was going to need a heap of it.
    Of course the stable doesn't set the odds but once they settled it was $10.70 at best

    https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fi...21#BNC16062110
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