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Thread: Odds-on favourites stats in Vic

  1. #1
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Odds-on favourites stats in Vic

    With the beginning of a new month I thought I would start a spreadsheet to track Odds-on faves in Vic.
    What a day to pick as the very first meeting was Mildura today

    They had 6 Odds-on faves today and they all LOST

    http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...&fromstate=vic

    I have taken stats on Odds-on pops before and found that about Half Lost - they are certainly off to a bad start this time around
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    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    I figure I will update this on a weekly basis
    1 week down

    75 races
    42 Odds On Favs = 56%

    20 Won so Success Rate = 47%
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    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    11 races at Bendigo tonight and only 1 Odds On
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    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    2 weeks down

    165 races
    87 Odds On Favs = 53%

    52 have won so Success Rate = 60%
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    Senior Member 4YO gutwagon will become famous soon enough gutwagon's Avatar
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    53% odds on favs in races just shows the current handicap system is not producing even races. I would expect the 3.5k races could have an even higher % as they seem to be the most uneven races.
    Don't die wondering !

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    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    I have not divided the races into classes, I was more interested in which tracks and stables. I know that in the 2 weeks we have had 2 All $3.5k meets: Shep 6/11 odds on and Melton 5/10, so no worse at this stage. The Melton Metro meet on June 8 had 8/11.

    So far the 87 Odds on pops have come from 63 different stables
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    Senior Member Stallion aussiebreno is just really nice aussiebreno is just really nice
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    Quote Originally Posted by Messenger View Post
    I have not divided the races into classes, I was more interested in which tracks and stables. I know that in the 2 weeks we have had 2 All $3.5k meets: Shep 6/11 odds on and Melton 5/10, so no worse at this stage. The Melton Metro meet on June 8 had 8/11.

    So far the 87 Odds on pops have come from 63 different stables
    We demand class records. You are as bad as HRV in regards to not providing class records!!! Just joking Kev

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    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    I have already pushed my computer skills to the limit to have a single spreadsheet that sorts trainers alphabetically, sorts meeting alphabetically, indicates what the favourites odds were and whether it won or lost, as well as recording the number of races on the card and how many of the faves were odds on. I for one am pretty impressed (with excel)
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    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Tonight at Bendigo 11 out of 11 Odds On favourites

    6 out of 11 LOST

    including $1.30 Lost, $1.20 Lost, $1.10 Lost - can you imagine the uproar if that happened in another code

    What is going on?

    http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...&fromstate=vic
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  10. #10
    Senior Member Colt Dot will become famous soon enough
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    Not sure your comparing apples with apples Kev, if the other codes don't have as many odds on favs then they can't have as many lose at a meeting so no I can't imagine the uproar but of course all codes can have a short priced favourite lose.

    Most but not all of these races were Vicbred heats which were clearly seeded to spread the better performed, and or likely to be better supported horses across the card which resulted in the short priced favourites in these events. I imagine that pattern will continue across the remainder of the Vicbred series. Perhaps at the conclusion of the series it is time to review the structure of the series.

    Currently it operates as an all in concept during the heats before the cream rise to the top into the semis and then rises further into the final with one or two consolations conducted for those not making the final. It's designed to keep the best horses apart before reaching a crescendo and crowning a champion, not maximise wagering along the way. Perhaps it's time to acknowledge that not all starters are equal and tier the series from the beginning into "gold" and "silver" divisions ( and even "bronze" if there are enough horses) with the "gold" horses competing for higher levels of prizemoney in both the heats and final then horses engaged in the "silver" series, and likewise for horses engaged in a "bronze" series if there was one. Just have heats into a final and consolations and use the prizemoney allocated for the semi finals to fund the two/three tiered series. I'd like to think there are more then some 70 odd 2yos available to race in Vic and a tiered Vicbred series may draw more starters and make more participants feel a part of the Vicbred series and "family". It would pit more like against like from the beginning and as a result should even up the starting prices somewhat though it won't of course guarantee an odds on pop doesn't get beaten.

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