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Thread: Odds-on favourites stats in Vic

  1. #31
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Week 1 of July

    76 races
    41 odds on favs = 54%
    24 won = 58.5% success rate
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  2. #32
    Senior Member Stallion aussiebreno is just really nice aussiebreno is just really nice
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    These Silver and Bronze races are a great opportunity for the lesser likes likes to get a photo on the wall. Owners of strugglers like Molly Kelly and Lochinvar Art must be very chuffed to race against similarly credentialed horses. Note the sarcasm.

    It just adds to the reasons not to run these races.

  3. #33
    Senior Member 2YO Dot will become famous soon enough
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    I'll confess I haven't read the fine print on the Vicbred series, are these consolations? Molly Kelly and Lochinvar Art didn't contest the Vicbred series, they were both in the breeders challenge in NSW so if these are consolations for the Vicbred Series then I wouldn't have expected to see them in them. But wasn't that what you wanted Brenno, no consolations.

  4. #34
    Senior Member Stallion aussiebreno is just really nice aussiebreno is just really nice
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dot View Post
    I'll confess I haven't read the fine print on the Vicbred series, are these consolations? Molly Kelly and Lochinvar Art didn't contest the Vicbred series, they were both in the breeders challenge in NSW so if these are consolations for the Vicbred Series then I wouldn't have expected to see them in them. But wasn't that what you wanted Brenno, no consolations.
    I want the showcase finals like they are at the moment and have been for years.

    The horses who get don't make the final shouldn't get a second bite of the cherry though whether that be a consolation or a silver or a bronze - I don't care what you call it. That money is better spent elsewhere.

  5. #35
    Senior Member 2YO Dot will become famous soon enough
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    But what does that have to do with Lochinvar Art and Molly Kelly in these races?

  6. #36
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    The $25k 2yo C&G Silver pace has 3 first starters in it

    http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...ic#MXC12071809
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  7. #37
    Senior Member 2YO Dot will become famous soon enough
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    Well clearly not a consolation for those who were unsuccessful in progressing through the original series then.

    Just checked, only horses that made the Vicbred final are excluded from these. So horses who dont support the series are eligible even if they have run second in the final of the equivalent series in NSW. Something doesn't seem quite right......
    Last edited by Dot; 07-10-2018 at 02:28 AM. Reason: Added to

  8. #38
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    July update (fini of 17/7)

    178 races
    87 odds on favs = 49%
    51 won = 58.6% success rate

    PBD conditions may already be making a diff as 49% is a drop

    and this is despite many small fields where everyone is off the front. With bigger fields and PBD conditions we may see a serious reduction in Odds On Pops. 33% would be fantastic
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  9. #39
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year arlington will become famous soon enough
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    Quote Originally Posted by Messenger View Post
    July update (fini of 17/7)

    178 races
    87 odds on favs = 49%
    51 won = 58.6% success rate

    PBD conditions may already be making a diff as 49% is a drop

    and this is despite many small fields where everyone is off the front. With bigger fields and PBD conditions we may see a serious reduction in Odds On Pops. 33% would be fantastic

    Bigger fields might mean the "handicapped" runners are drawn 8 & 9.

  10. #40
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    It is hard to know what is worst for PBD Wayne so maybe PBD is flawed - especially straightforward 1-12 PBD (I am sure Brenno had pointed this out before)

    Kilmore and Maryborough are two of our most used tracks
    The stats are only for the last 12mths (I don't know why they do that!)
    but at Kilmore while the 8 & 9 are not bad draws - 7 has the best strike rate of any draw!
    Maryborough sees 8 is fine but 9 so-so while 12, 10, 6 are their winningest - in that order

    At Melton 8 & 9 are not as good as anything off the front with 1 then 5 the winningest
    The Thin Green Line - Supporting the Rangers who protect the world's endangered animals against poachers

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