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Thread: Vicbred Super Series Finals

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  1. #1
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Vicbred Super Series Finals

    The semi's

    http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...&fromstate=vic

    I am expecting at least 7 winners

    but $3 for 9 or more winners is ridiculous

    https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting...arness-megabet
    Last edited by Messenger; 07-04-2018 at 01:46 AM.
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

  2. #2
    aussiebreno
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    Quote Originally Posted by Messenger View Post
    http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...&fromstate=vic

    I am expecting at least 7 winners

    but $3 for 9 or more winners is ridiculous

    https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting...arness-megabet
    Races aren't on paper but on paper it would seem like this:

    Wins Race#s 1,3,4,6,7,10,11,12

    Possibly win Rc #s 2,5

    Maybe win Rc#s 8,9

    Footy players say its never as good as it seems and its never as bad as it seems, so perhaps they won't have as a big as expected. Kev your stats also point to odds on favourites getting beaten sometimes (although I wonder if Stewarts odds on faves have a better record than the general population?). My prediction is they win 7.

  3. #3
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Their strike rate with odds on pops is only marginally better than the average Brendan with 12 winners from 18 or 66%
    13 from 19 after Semi 1 win and it is only going to get better tonight as I do not think they will have 12 odds on faves
    It is only a small sample of 19 now but when they have an odds on pop they have always been $1.70 or shorter

    ps It has been a very early start tonight - not everybody can get off that early but they love to catch the last of the gallops punters
    Last edited by Messenger; 06-29-2018 at 08:06 PM. Reason: ps
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    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    GO Tidal Surge for Dot
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    Senior Member Horse Of The Year Dot will become famous soon enough
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    Thanks Kev, he did his best, very happy with him.

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    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    How easy has harness racing been for Peter Gleeson. He gets a hold of a mare Hot Foot (1976) and ever since has had a stable full of stars. Ride High might even turn out to be the best of them
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    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Congratulations to Anne - Hurricane Harley is special

    Make it a double with a couple of other qualifiers
    Last edited by Messenger; 06-30-2018 at 01:34 AM. Reason: update
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  8. #8
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    The Quaddie pays $7.70
    The early Quaddie paid $19.10 and that was with 2 favourites beaten!
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    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Brendan was on the right track with his rationalization that not all odds on pops win
    They were above average tonight with 7/10 = 70%
    and Emma Stewart 6/8 = 75%
    With the stable 6/7 with odds on pops coming into the last (86%) we just had to 'play the odds' that they were due for a loss and we would have been ecstatic (Soho Burning Love $17 fixed odds)
    In the race before Major Sea ($81 FO) was going to get there in another metre or two and that would have been a real upset!
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  10. #10
    aussiebreno
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    Quote Originally Posted by Messenger View Post
    Brendan was on the right track with his rationalization that not all odds on pops win
    They were above average tonight with 7/10 = 70%
    and Emma Stewart 6/8 = 75%
    With the stable 6/7 with odds on pops coming into the last (86%) we just had to 'play the odds' that they were due for a loss and we would have been ecstatic (Soho Burning Love $17 fixed odds)
    In the race before Major Sea ($81 FO) was going to get there in another metre or two and that would have been a real upset!
    Correct in the sense Nostra Villa got beat but my rediction of 7 come undone with the win of Kauloa. Great night of semis. Punters paradise next week and Sunday at Menangle given pleny of form references and cross referencing as well as educated assumptions to be made! Keep this format!
    Whats the Stewart prediction for final night? 5? Would be fave for all but 4yo E&G and maybe mares depending on draw.

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