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Thread: Vicbred Super Series Finals

  1. #1
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Vicbred Super Series Finals

    The semi's

    http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...&fromstate=vic

    I am expecting at least 7 winners

    but $3 for 9 or more winners is ridiculous

    https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting...arness-megabet
    Last edited by Messenger; 2 Weeks Ago at 01:46 AM.
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  2. #2
    Senior Member Stallion aussiebreno is just really nice aussiebreno is just really nice
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    Quote Originally Posted by Messenger View Post
    http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...&fromstate=vic

    I am expecting at least 7 winners

    but $3 for 9 or more winners is ridiculous

    https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting...arness-megabet
    Races aren't on paper but on paper it would seem like this:

    Wins Race#s 1,3,4,6,7,10,11,12

    Possibly win Rc #s 2,5

    Maybe win Rc#s 8,9

    Footy players say its never as good as it seems and its never as bad as it seems, so perhaps they won't have as a big as expected. Kev your stats also point to odds on favourites getting beaten sometimes (although I wonder if Stewarts odds on faves have a better record than the general population?). My prediction is they win 7.

  3. #3
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Their strike rate with odds on pops is only marginally better than the average Brendan with 12 winners from 18 or 66%
    13 from 19 after Semi 1 win and it is only going to get better tonight as I do not think they will have 12 odds on faves
    It is only a small sample of 19 now but when they have an odds on pop they have always been $1.70 or shorter

    ps It has been a very early start tonight - not everybody can get off that early but they love to catch the last of the gallops punters
    Last edited by Messenger; 2 Weeks Ago at 08:06 PM. Reason: ps
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  4. #4
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    GO Tidal Surge for Dot
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  5. #5
    Member Filly Dot will become famous soon enough
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    Thanks Kev, he did his best, very happy with him.

  6. #6
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    How easy has harness racing been for Peter Gleeson. He gets a hold of a mare Hot Foot (1976) and ever since has had a stable full of stars. Ride High might even turn out to be the best of them
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  7. #7
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Congratulations to Anne - Hurricane Harley is special

    Make it a double with a couple of other qualifiers
    Last edited by Messenger; 2 Weeks Ago at 01:34 AM. Reason: update
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  8. #8
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    The Quaddie pays $7.70
    The early Quaddie paid $19.10 and that was with 2 favourites beaten!
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  9. #9
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Brendan was on the right track with his rationalization that not all odds on pops win
    They were above average tonight with 7/10 = 70%
    and Emma Stewart 6/8 = 75%
    With the stable 6/7 with odds on pops coming into the last (86%) we just had to 'play the odds' that they were due for a loss and we would have been ecstatic (Soho Burning Love $17 fixed odds)
    In the race before Major Sea ($81 FO) was going to get there in another metre or two and that would have been a real upset!
    The Thin Green Line - Supporting the Rangers who protect the world's endangered animals against poachers

  10. #10
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    So the Stewart stable gets 8 semi winners in the end
    and Sportsbet's book was right ($3.30 for exactly 8 - what a hard way to triple your money!)

    http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...&fromstate=vic
    The Thin Green Line - Supporting the Rangers who protect the world's endangered animals against poachers

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