Industry Indicators - Good, Bad & Ugly

[gutwagon]

Dot I agree with you 100%.
And don't believe we have the 6 million until we actually get it , after all they were just politicians election promises !
I see nothing in that package to make me or anyone want to breed more horses. The big winner will be NZ as they will have to supply the extra horses .
None of the extra money is going to increasing the incentive to breed horses. Nothing is going to encouraging ownership through advertising etc.


Just more of the same solution that has been failing for the past 15+ years !
They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result ! Draw your own conclusions with that !
Where will our future race horses come from if demand does increase ? Breed more you say ! With what ! The mares are all gone because nobody could afford to breed anymore ! The board needs to act now to ensure that foal numbers start to increase to cover the extra demand that they think they are encouraging. It takes 3+ years to create a 2yo racehorse from conception .

[gutwagon]

Wayne, the 2yo old season was originally pushed back for "animal welfare" reasons. At the time numbers weren't an issue. Now lack of numbers is delaying all 2yo racing. Breeder/owners have to wait longer for returns on their investments .
People still have mares in the paddock and are deciding whether to breed or not, if we wait any longer those mares will be gone. They will go interstate, to ridding horses, pets or the food chain.

The whole Vicbred series was designed to encourage breeding in Victoria so the bonus should go to the breeder in my opinion. Another bonus could be added for the owners.

[arlington]

Wayne, the 2yo old season was originally pushed back for "animal welfare" reasons. At the time numbers weren't an issue. Now lack of numbers is delaying all 2yo racing. Breeder/owners have to wait longer for returns on their investments .
People still have mares in the paddock and are deciding whether to breed or not, if we wait any longer those mares will be gone. They will go interstate, to ridding horses, pets or the food chain.

The whole Vicbred series was designed to encourage breeding in Victoria so the bonus should go to the breeder in my opinion. Another bonus could be added for the owners.

Do you think we could go against animal welfare policies and bring forward the 2yo season Rick? As to the reason, a moot point anyway, unless you believe it was that policy that reduced numbers? I have to say I haven't seen a significant number of young jets in a holding pattern waiting to swoop on the first trials. In fact there's probably a better opportunity to pick up prizemoney early as it is now. But you have to have a jet. The comments I've overheard at the first 2yo trials have been "looks like only APG 2yo's".

As for the mares in the paddock, yep we have four ourselves, possibly about to be five.
Of those mares in the paddock, what would be the percentage of the off spring that would be retained to race/go to the sales?
I doubt it's only me, and considering we'd breed to race, breeder bonuses do nought to book in a scan. For that matter neither do/have owner bonuses.
You might be able to twist my arm, what would a foal on ground $7K bonus do? Maybe I'm being pedantic, repetitive, you might say dumb or basic. If I think the offspring of those mares didn't have a chance of at least paying their way as race horses (knowing only too well most don't) $7K does nothing for me, especially at lower prizemoney levels. You could say I'm stupid, considering I wouldn't have expensive agistment costs, but still have costs that would be well over 10K if all were live foals and made it to the "are they any good stage". Service fee alone would be a minimum of 6-7K. We have tried Bettors before at 13K but not with one of these mares.
If selling, what should I think is a satisfactory return? Realistically do I think I'd get that? (I know, pre-empting your answer)
Perhaps all those mares you speak of are far better bred, conformed and performed than ours. Mine might be the ones that should be permanently retired from anything related to harness racing, which they realistically are.

I don't know...how did the dry broodmare register go? Did it get up, was it last season, again this season? Those taken up were for retaining or selling the offspring?

The set back of the 2yo season has also been due to the change from August 1 to Sept 1. Some people are suggesting putting the start back further. What might also chronologically coincide within that 15 year period is the shaming of people's bloodlines. You're doing a disservice to the sport if you breed from a one win mare, has that manifested into unless your mare has gone 56 a few times, don't wreck the breed? Of course depth has a lot to do with it, more so now, in the last 15 years, people are more wary of buying from "a sister to".

Anyway, it seems Ray doesn't agree with breeder/owner bonuses or stake money increases. Ok, keep stakes levels as is, use the $6m to promote and market, a 'la ID18 perpetually... yep, ok Kev, see if we can encourage some vive la france, might have to use a bit more than that $6m...might have to buy a free to air station.

Another real time, reality reality observation. I would consider this person a relatively successful pro trainer, no I don't know their GST or tax status, when a previous $3m Govt funding to be used solely for integrity was announced, they questioned why it was being used there and not going to prize money. Maybe it is I that's barking up the wrong tree.

I'd previously posed cheating to win as a wider horse welfare issue and it's effect on decreasing participation and horse numbers. You have no thoughts on that Rick?

Smoko over.

[Messenger]

Dot I agree with you 100%.
And don't believe we have the 6 million until we actually get it , after all they were just politicians election promises !
I see nothing in that package to make me or anyone want to breed more horses. The big winner will be NZ as they will have to supply the extra horses .
None of the extra money is going to increasing the incentive to breed horses. Nothing is going to encouraging ownership through advertising etc.


Just more of the same solution that has been failing for the past 15+ years !
They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result ! Draw your own conclusions with that !

Rick, you would appreciate the email I received from Ray Chaplin
He bemoans the fact that the industry continues to focus on
"industry participant benefit” focus (predominantly stake money, programming and breeding incentives) rather than an outward “marketplace customer benefit” focus (increasing public interest and participation) which is the only way to achieve the breeding/product growth required to maintain industry viability

He rightly points out that HRA's national forum should have the single strategic focus
“What is the core problem which has created the demise of harness racing in Australia and how can it be addressed?”

[arlington]

Just more of the same solution that has been failing for the past 15+ years !
I wouldn't say prizemoney increases had been the focus of previous administrators in Victoria. The previous CEO (12 years and 7 months) oversaw swab levels decreasing by nearly 50%. That may have funded any increases?

“What is the core problem which has created the demise of harness racing in Australia and how can it be addressed?”
Ray's like a few in this forum just different views.
....an outward “marketplace customer benefit” focus (increasing public interest and participation)… would include doing your utmost to remove certain negative tags, catch phrases, attached to the product?

[arlington]

Pretty sure it was legendary driver John Campbell and now President of the Hambletonian Society bemoaning the speed at which races are now run. John suggesting we could look at ways to slow them down.

[gutwagon]

Wayne, I do think we still have too many cheats and the penalties are to light when they are caught. I would like some of the money to go to integrity and improving our image. I think the previous board was perceived to be corrupt by the majority of participants and a full clean out of stewards would be a good idea.

As for going too fast, removing the maximum quarter times would be a good start, it would allow tactics to play more of a part. Of course the big punters don't like that because it's harder to pic the winner so they seem to not want to upset them.
The tiered prizemoney system needs to go in my opinion. Horses can't pay their way with 4k races, it just isn't working.

As for which mares to breed from well that's just a gambol. They have to have good pedigrees if you want to sell at the sales but not everybody breeds to sell. Some pic stallions and crosses that may produce the best racehorse, these foals often don't appeal to yearling buyers.
Big stables dominating the juvenile races is a big problem too, that turns many small time breeders away.

I agree that we must get people back to the track but people seem to have short attention spans nowadays and want no wait time between races and home comforts so that will be hard to fix.

[KTQ]

In WA, trainers buying high priced proven horses and bringing them over. It used to be that those horses just raced in Perth but the trainers are now traveling to all country tracks with exception of maybe Busselton and Collie. There are fewer and fewer chances for small trainers to win races and fewer and fewer owners are breeding because there is no return.



Even I sit here and think why are we bothering. We get a Jack Mac - the best horse we've ever had and will have. We see him as a yearling and buy him. pay his paddocking from a yearling, pay his breaking and then his training and the costs along with it and watch as we see him develop and realise he could be anything. We think This is it, here is our chance . He pays us back with some amazing wins and then all the top NZ horses are bought and brought over and the dream is done.



Take a look at the 4yo classic field at GP Friday and the trainers with horses in the race. How many hobby trainers? Theres Kristian Hawkins and my dad with Jack. Add up the purchase prices of the horses in that race. King of Swing cost $400k alone. There is just no chance these days, beyond a fluke, of anyone getting a super horse because you get one and then horses are bought to beat it. Get that super horse and it goes back to luck. The thing is that we're the lucky ones. Wr can actually afford to go NZ and buy a few yearlings to race or prop up our breeding stock.



Why would anyone else breed their backyard mare? Why would anyone breed their well bred mare to sell when theres 5 or 6 or 7 NZ ones that will come over and relegate your champion to 7th best of its age group.



The thing is there is nothing wrong with trainers buying high priced horses to race. It is their livelihood after all But fundamentally from a participant standpoint it is killing grassroots racing. so there is something wrong with it.


what's the fix? Could we tax those horses 20% of purchase price and put it into stakemoney for WA bred horses or hobby trained races?

Do we enforce a professional trainer tax?
Do we enforce a 20% WA bred horses in every stable rule?
Do we create races for trainers with under x amount of horses in work?





Last point. Has the industry done an in depth and statistically significant study for EACH state into to why foal numbers are falling and punting dollars are going elsewhere or are we just going on inclination and opinions. Cart before horse wont solve a thing.

[Messenger]

Katie, following your post, I thought I would examine the Inter heats to quantify the NZ influx
I didn't count NZ visitors just here for the carnival (so -7)
Of the other 53 runners, 26 are NZ bred so we are talking Half

After 30 years of big import numbers you might have thought that we should now have quite a few strains of their 'superior' bloodlines in Oz
Have we not imported enough fillies?
Or is it simply a case of NZers being like Take-Away Food
- you cannot force people to cook?

[Dot]

You probably need to look at the dams of the Australian runners Kev. I’d hazard a guess that the vast majority of Kiwi imports were geldings imported to take advantage of the racing opportunities with no thought to future breeding. And of the fillies I think many returned to NZ for breeding at the end of their racing days.

Interesting to compare the state of our industry with that of France. In short the wants of individuals have been facilitated downunder as opposed to ensuring the needs of the industry are met as France has done with its protectionist policies. Only for very short periods in history has France allowed imports, quickly closing the door, only limited horses are permitted temporarily in France for feature races, and must be entire males or females, that is prospective breeding stock, to contest the elite level races. Stallion books are limited and semen transport is not permitted, and all stock for breeding must meet a minimum standard in performance and pedigree to be bred from, and are culled if their offspring don’t measure up. 10 is the compulsory retirement for a race horse in France and then these horses can be found racing elsewhere in Europe, otherwise it’s not a simple task to purchase racing or breeding stock in France for export.

I don’t disagree with what Katie has written or is suggesting but it probably needed doing a long time ago. Trying to introduce those things now would need a very determined administration for its very likely to face a strong legal challenge from those who have found their niche in the industry buying and racing expensive imports of proven ability.