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Thread: Peperell Beijing.......1.54.6 ?

  1. #11
    Senior Member 4YO Lucky Camilla"s Lovechild will become famous soon enough
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    Leigh Stollery
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    Quote Originally Posted by triplev123 View Post
    [VVV] Leigh, I think you're in need a Yardstick moreso than I'm in need of a new Clock.
    Menangle is a big track & it is fast, even in the middle of Winter they can run quick times.
    In the warmer weather, Spring/Summer, with the right temperature & humidity levels & with the right early tempo (all of which were present on this occasion), it is lightning fast. Not only that, but the warmer it gets out there the more speed holds up on the lead.
    By way of a Yardstick, a C3-C5 going in 1:54.6 at Menangle is a C3-C5 going in the early to mid 1:59's at HP...which is, surprise, surprise, a time that's close to what he clocked at Albury (a pretty tight half miler) as was noted by Breno. Further to all that, the horse had won his previous start by near 14m over the half miler track at Wagga in 2:01 for 1755m.
    For him to then step out at Menangle over the 7/8ths track & go 1:54.6 for a race that's 146m shorter, i.e 1609m as compared to 1755...it's not a 'bolt from the blue' mile really.
    For the sake of the exercise, what would you think the speed differential is (as expressed in seconds) between the 1755m at Wagga and the 1609m at Menangle? I've got a pretty good idea what it is from HP to Menangle. Interested in what you think it is from Wagga to Menangle.
    VVV stop confusing me with your outlandish facts.

  2. #12
    triplev123
    Guest
    . It's a great track Leigh & I think it's capable of significantly more than we've seen from it to date.
    Wait until the next wave of quick miles come our way. Might even be throughout this coming Summer here in Sydney, especially if recent weather is anything to go by. In time we'll have M0's regularly going in the 1:52's or faster & the FFA horses will be going by in the high 1:48's to mid 1:49's almost as a matter of course.
    I can't see any reason at all why our horses will not roll at Menangle in times that are very similar to those recorded at Chester, Pocono, Mohawk/Woodbine & so on.
    On that score, I also think we'll see the Pacing records gradually compress across the age groups/grades.
    Sooner or later you'll see a 2yo colt go in sub 1:53, you'll see a colt 3yo go in sub 1:51... and a horse like Smoken Up, he could roll in a sub 1:48, no risk whatsoever. Eventually I think we'll end up with something like the US spread of around 3 seconds from the 2yo record to the Aged record. Ours is currently 5.2 seconds.
    If I had to have a guess for the next 5-10 years, I think our 2yos might get down to around the mid 1:51's (currently 1:53.7), our 3yos might get down in the mid to low 1:50's (currently 1:52.1) and the Aged horses will go in the mid to high 1:47's (currently 1:48.5).
    Last edited by triplev123; 10-26-2011 at 12:58 AM. Reason: Hit the send button too quickly

  3. #13
    aussiebreno
    Guest
    Quote Originally Posted by triplev123 View Post
    [VVV] Leigh, I think you're in need a Yardstick moreso than I'm in need of a new Clock.
    Menangle is a big track & it is fast, even in the middle of Winter they can run quick times.
    In the warmer weather, Spring/Summer, with the right temperature & humidity levels & with the right early tempo (all of which were present on this occasion), it is lightning fast. Not only that, but the warmer it gets out there the more speed holds up on the lead.
    By way of a Yardstick, a C3-C5 going in 1:54.6 at Menangle is a C3-C5 going in the early to mid 1:59's at HP...which is, surprise, surprise, a time that's close to what he clocked at Albury (a pretty tight half miler) as was noted by Breno. Further to all that, the horse had won his previous start by near 14m over the half miler track at Wagga in 2:01 for 1755m.
    For him to then step out at Menangle over the 7/8ths track & go 1:54.6 for a race that's 146m shorter, i.e 1609m as compared to 1755...it's not a 'bolt from the blue' mile really.
    For the sake of the exercise, what would you think the speed differential is (as expressed in seconds) between the 1755m at Wagga and the 1609m at Menangle? I've got a pretty good idea what it is from HP to Menangle. Interested in what you think it is from Wagga to Menangle.
    4 seconds imo for the mile (Worked this out by a few Riverina horses going up to Menangle about 12-18 months ago but haven't been doing form for past 6 months) - I also used to use 4 seconds for HP to Menangle FWIW. But of course Pepperell Beijing was not touched at Wagga. I reckon its about 6 seconds differential for Albury to Menangle as well. The way races are run also has a huge bearing.

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