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Thread: End of Nov

  1. #1
    Senior Member 2YO Starship Captain will become famous soon enough Starship Captain's Avatar
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    Jason Cash
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    End of Nov

    The end of Nov is the last breeding day for us.
    Anyone else have a date that they will not breed after?

  2. #2
    triplev123
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    Nah, empty mares cost the same to run as dry mares SC.
    Keep swinging at them all the way to the end of December & if you have to a bit beyond that even.
    IMO imposing arbitrary dates is madness. 2yos don't know their foaling dates.

    Take a few from last season for example.
    Cowgirls N Indians, the winner of last season's 2yo Fillies Australasian Breeders Crown, was a 2nd of January 2009 foal.
    Mr Nickel, the APG 2yo Colts & Geldings winner, was foaled on the 18th of December 2008.
    Western Cullen, the WA Golden Slipper winner was a 15th of December 2008 foal.
    The previous season...
    Ohoka's Bondy, winner of the 2010 WA Golden Slipper, was a 5th of December 2007 foal.
    Previous to that, Smiling Shard is a December 3rd, 2006 foal and he STILL holds the Australasian 2yo record of 1:53.6? if I recall the time correctly.

    The reason that less later born foals are annually documented as having won the big races has nothing at all to do with them somehow being 2 or 3 months behind or less mature than their contemporaries some 2 & 1/2 to 2 & 3/4 years down the track after they were foaled...but rather it is simply the fact that statistically there are far fewer of them.
    It is a function of numbers that serves to create a myth. If you look at the Bell Curve produced by foaling dates it backs that up.
    In summary, I'd keep taking shots if I were you. Geeze, in the South Island of NZ I'd reckon that half the mares would still be struggling to hit a proper cycle & it doesn't stop them producing early winners.

  3. #3
    Senior Member 4YO eliteblood has a spectacular aura about eliteblood's Avatar
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    I agree with VVV. You cannot make any money from an empty mare.
    I'd be interested to hear your reasoning.

  4. #4
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year mightymo will become famous soon enough
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    No way Starship. As a commercial breeder you simply could not do that. I breed to late December without any hesitation, and often, till early Jan

    Any foal on the ground is far more valuable than no foal.

  5. #5
    triplev123
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    It's happening pretty widely though Harvey, in fact it has been for some time now.
    Only a season or two ago I was talking to the proprietor of a large stud here in Oz & he was, IMO quite rightly, bemoaning the fact that so many people had got it into their heads that late Nov/early Dec was some sort of a watershed and that many had said to him that they were not going to serve their mares beyond that period. I shared his great frustration. Unavoidable & avoidable circumstances already dictate way too many empty mares each year as it is. Crazy stuff. Who in blue blazes is spreading the idea? It never used to be like that, at least not to my knowledge.
    On a related note, a general observation of mine over the years has been that mares set to foal early in the season tend to overshoot their due date by 7-10-14 days or so and mares that are set to foal late in the season tend to go earlier, sometimes up to 14 days earlier. Don't know if that has to do with them waiting for the warmer weather earlier in the season and suffering from the genuine heat late in the season or whatever but it seems to me to be that way.

  6. #6
    Senior Member 2YO Starship Captain will become famous soon enough Starship Captain's Avatar
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    The whole family is involved in the decision making.
    There have been exceptions to the final breeding date (old mares).
    The heat knocks the young foals around and as we do all the work ourselves and cannot always be at the farm, we are scared of having a foal born at one of the hotter times of the year. This is due to our prior experience in losing a foal because of the heat related stresses. This can effect a young foal in just a matter of hours and death is a certainty if not found in time.
    Eliteblood-This year we have breed mostly maiden mares. The consensus here is that having an early foal can help with giving more time for them to grow and mature pre-sales time and with the first foal a mare produce’s usually being smaller we feel this can only be beneficial.
    TripleV123-“Empty mares cost the same as dry mares to run”?? I take it a dry mare is a mare that is pregnant, with no foal at foot? If so our costs are different to yours, around $460 a month for a pregnant mare. The mares that are empty cost $210 a month.
    Mightymo- Having to feed an empty mare that is going to produce in time a product that you feel will give a healthy return is not so much a strain on the pocket.
    - We do not just breed a filly because we own her, she must have suitable pedigree, and type, ability and the resulting foal must have a destination.
    Getting away from the point a bit, this is working for us at the moment.

  7. #7
    aussiebreno
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    I too, some-one who actually doesn't breed, was of the belief latter born foals were at a disadvantage. VVV brings up the good point though (if he is correct; I have no reason to doubt him) that less foals are born later in the year so there is less chance of those winning races.
    There was also a belief in some AFL circles those born Jan-Jun have a better chance of making the AFL than those born July-Dec. This did have some substance last year when various Under 18 state sides were made up of predominately second half of the year babies. NSWs side had something like 5 young kids from a squad of 40.
    I think I've even posted that here before. But now I've changed my stand on this. I don't think it had any substance other than it was a cycle because at the end of the day 8 of the top 10 draftees were second half the year babies last year.
    How an 18yo human correlates to a 2yo or 3yo horse I don't know. So You Think won his first Cox Plate when he was effectively 2 though!

  8. #8
    triplev123
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    G'day Breno,

    Sans being armed with a Sales catalogue or similar with the actual dates printed in it, I'd defy anyone short of the Lord above to walk into a paddock of yearlings & accurately identify all the September foals from the October/November and then December/January foals by way of visual assessment.

    It is such a case by case, individual by individual thing that to place an arbitrary cut-off date on them as a basis for maturity is just cazy. The facts are some foals are born later yet mature earlier, some are born earlier yet mature later...and in-between those two extremes are many variations both of themes.

    Harness Racing International published an excellent statistical analysis of foaling dates versus juvenile success and it totally debunked the early foal vs late foal routine. I'll try and dig it up if I can and if not I might ask Pecky if he can e-mail it to me & request his permission to reproduce it here.

    If you have a look at the statistics...and the proponents of putting mares under lights and getting super early foals etc will not tell you this...but the exact same bias that exists against late foals re: them not showing up in the 2yo winners lists as often actually also exists to the very same extent as far as early foals are concerned.
    In both instances is a simple function of numbers, of opportunity. It's one that's no different to a sire with a crop of 300 foals getting more invidual winners per season than a sire with a crop of 50.

    Notably early foals don't show up in the 2yo winners lists as often either...& this is due to the very same reason as their later born compatriots...there are simply fewer of them.

    A rule of thumb is that for every 1000 foals born the Sept. - Oct/Nov - Dec break up of their birth dates is roughly 200/600/200...might even be closer to 100/800/100. The bulge in the middle is a combination of nature & human intervention/influnce.

    Left to their own devices I think it's fair to say that very few mares would naturally be bowling onto a length cycle wise in late Sept/early October. My experience is that it's much easier to get mares in foal in November than any other month of the season.

    I was a bit wild that one of the conclusions of that HRA Breeders Report was that 'we need to breed more foals'...because for mine that is bullshit...we infact need to give the 50% of foals we annually ignore (fillies) more racing opportunitues. It was a conclusion that was if not actively then at least tacitly supported by the Studs. That's Ok, that's business, no harm, no foul. They're looking after their interests.
    Where I do have a great deal of sympathy for the Studs however is in the no doubt for them (the studs) extremely frustrating area of their clients saying 'we're not breeding our mare/s beyond X date'. The fact is...the whole success of early vs late foal thing has no actual basis in fact.
    Last edited by triplev123; 11-19-2011 at 05:03 PM. Reason: added a bit + dates has an 'e' in it.

  9. #9
    Senior Member 2YO Starship Captain will become famous soon enough Starship Captain's Avatar
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    I agree with what you say TripleV123, but next time you are at a yearling sale can you have a look around and see who is buying!

  10. #10
    triplev123
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    True, however various breeding related myths have slowly but surely been killed off over the years SC...semen transport foals are of a lower quality than those conceived by natural service, ditto for the frozen semen or embyro transfer foals, older mares can't produce good quality foals etc etc. This is yet another in a long line of myths & old wives tales who's time to be exploded is well & truly at at hand if not over-due.

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