Bendigo to host Vic Cup, Derby, Oaks !

[aussiebreno]

But that can happen in a final eg TT v LIR in the Vicbred Final - the only time LIR has been beaten when TT gets 2 and LIR gets 8. Every chance that we should be spruiking Ladies as an undefeated champion. We don't want to be like pro Athletics where champions are crucified

However, my reason for my opening post about this is that right now the heats are barely betting propositions as horses do not need to win and possibly want to win enough.
Another solution would be to make the heats worth more

Yes it can but happen but better to happen from randomness than to happen from getting a leg up.

Tough luck LIR got beat by the draw. Racing isn't fair sometimes. LIR V Tough Tilly RD5 or whatever we are up to will be a good selling point too.

Agree the heats can sometimes be a yawn fest but it isn't a reason to bastardise the finals.

Agree there should be seedings.

[Messenger]

If you have seedings for heats and draw preferences according to finishing positions, I think we would have a fairer system to ensure the cream rises to the top - far from bastardizing finals it would be making them less 'Lotto' events

If it is 'Tough Luck' that LIR got beat by the draw, why are you worried about a horse suffering due to preferential draws when this system they would have a major say in determining their own future by performing in the heats (ps agreeing that we seed the heats to make them as fair as possible too)

[aussiebreno]

If you have seedings for heats and draw preferences according to finishing positions, I think we would have a fairer system to ensure the cream rises to the top - far from bastardizing finals it would be making them less 'Lotto' events

If it is 'Tough Luck' that LIR got beat by the draw, why are you worried about a horse suffering due to preferential draws when this system they would have a major say in determining their own future by performing in the heats (ps agreeing that we seed the heats to make them as fair as possible too)

In a 3 heat system Seed 1 would still have the benefit of coming up against Seed 6 whereas Seed 3 must come up against Seed 4. The seed system still isn't perfect, look where Father Bob and Expensive Ego are seeded for the Interdominion. The cream rises to the top by virtue of being better, not by getting a leg up.

If a horse gets dudded from RBD that sucks but thats racing. Its a much better alternative than a horse getting dudded from an unfair system thats masquerading as being fair that is so likely to throw up situations where horses can get dudded.

If the heats are uncompetitive, how uncompetitive will Ladies in Red choosing gate 1 next week?

As an owner/trainer/driver/prepost punter can handle getting dudded at RBD. Can't handle drawing 12 in heats, running slower winning time or running 2nd to a top seed and then being dudded in the draw for the final.

[Messenger]

I just don't understand Brendan. You can handle the greater 50/50 possibility of being dudded by RBD in a classic final but cannot handle the lesser possibility of being dudded by RBD in a heat ( according to your suggested consequences of it happening under a preferential final system)
There is no perfect system but some systems are going to decrease the chance of best horses being dudded eg one that is seeded and rewards based while a system that is simply random can always throw up the possibility of a 50/50 chance of being dudded (front line v back row)

[aussiebreno]

I just don't understand Brendan. You can handle the greater 50/50 possibility of being dudded by RBD in a classic final but cannot handle the lesser possibility of being dudded by RBD in a heat ( according to your suggested consequences of it happening under a preferential final system)
There is no perfect system but some systems are going to decrease the chance of best horses being dudded eg one that is seeded and rewards based while a system that is simply random can always throw up the possibility of a 50/50 chance of being dudded (front line v back row)

Its not necessarily a 50/50 of being dudded by RBD. You can draw 6 or 10 but if you main danger draws bad its not end of the world. Once Seed 1 wins heat and picks gate 1 every other horse has been 100% dudded by your system. Every other horse is totally out of the game once the top 3yo wins his heat and draws 1. That is not what racing is about.

I can handle being dudded by RBD in heat. I can't handle by that being dudded in the heat can in turn have severe repercussions.

Your system has so many negative consequences. Purely because Blitzern drew two he just beat American Dealer and Bondi Lockdown (who copped some whitewash after a horse broke). That opens door for Major Moth to draw good and also only have the lower rated Blitzern draw good alongside him. How is that fair to American Dealer and Bondi Lockdown? RBD is not perfect but it sure beats a system so easily open to throwing up unfair results. Its like how the more the AFL tinker with the rules the more unintended consequences there are.

[aussiebreno]

All this because you don't want uncompetitive heats. Yet you want the final to be seed 1 leads and see if seed 2 can run them down the sprint lane.

[Messenger]

Its not necessarily a 50/50 of being dudded by RBD. You can draw 6 or 10 but if you main danger draws bad its not end of the world. Once Seed 1 wins heat and picks gate 1 every other horse has been 100% dudded by your system. Every other horse is totally out of the game once the top 3yo wins his heat and draws 1. That is not what racing is about.

I can handle being dudded by RBD in heat. I can't handle by that being dudded in the heat can in turn have severe repercussions.

Your system has so many negative consequences. Purely because Blitzern drew two he just beat American Dealer and Bondi Lockdown (who copped some whitewash after a horse broke). That opens door for Major Moth to draw good and also only have the lower rated Blitzern draw good alongside him. How is that fair to American Dealer and Bondi Lockdown? RBD is not perfect but it sure beats a system so easily open to throwing up unfair results. Its like how the more the AFL tinker with the rules the more unintended consequences there are.

Maybe but Blitzern won because he can always do that (just like Kimble could/did once), and he could do it in the final which a lotto system draw may present him anyway. Foremost Blitzern won because AB went to the top of AD's @r$e%o!e list and a horse galloped (something that can happen under any system)
Why are you saying that it is a given for seed 1 to win his heat but not seed 2? All the seeding does is separate them not give them a preferential heat draw. It just gives seeds 1,2 & 3 better chances of making the final/winning a heat and leaving the big clash until the final
I can see your point about handing a heat winner the ideal draw to lead but I guess I like to see champions win the classics and our sport/tracks really aren't always fair

I reckon we will have to agree to disagree to some extent as there are better things for both us to do/watch tonight

[Messenger]

Dan got it totally wrong in his call to say that American Dealer restrained to let Bondi Lockdown in - Anthony Butt denied him the death then saw he might get the 1x1 so he pulled back to stop him getting that too - if I did that on the road the police would charge me with dangerous driving
Anthony Butt IMO was a disgrace

[Messenger]

Congratulations to Lauriston - to breed both Oaks heat winners is some achievement
Not a bad night's work for the Stewart stable: 2 Derby heats and 2 Oaks heats (quinellaed both)

[Messenger]

I had to laugh at the suggestion that Willie Go West after winning the NR 85-99 pace last night, would not be out of place in the Victoria Cup. He was a NR 82 before last night and was favourite and winner last night largely due to drawing barrier 1. It was his first Vic metro win. We are talking about taking on King Of Swing and Amazing Dream