Miracle Mile 2022

[aussiebreno]

Ego is a better horse than Better Eclipse. They wouldnt have been mentioned in the same sentence until a week ago.

[Messenger]

True but Boncel Benjamin won the Inter but like Ego he is not in that form

[Messenger]

Is this where we watch the MM draw?

https://twitter.com/CMTrackside

Lack of info/promotion out there

[Messenger]

Found the answer thanks to Adam Hamilton

Tonight’s barrier draw (live at 7.30pm on Sky Racing 2) will shape how big a challenge King Of Swing faces, most notably with how he draws compared to main dangers Bondi Lockdown and Spirit Of St Louis.

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/the...of-a-champion/

Another quote to contemplate

Last Saturday night showed this is King Of Swing’s Miracle Mile to lose.

He is unbeaten in 11 runs over a mile at Menangle, five of them at Group 1 level.

[aussiebreno]

Egos current form isn't as good as his past form but I think signs were there Sat night he ran much better than he did in Victoria and at Newcastle. If you compare Saturday nights run alone with his 2021 form there is barely a noticeable drop for mine. The noticeable drop was only in Vic and at Newcastle.

He was able to clear out from Triple Eight showing a big reversal on the Casey Classic when judging form on opposition.
He went over 4 seconds quicker than the Newcastle run showing a big reversal when judging form on times (even allowing for tracks and the 32qtr its an improvement).

Drawing wider than 5 in these qualifier heats has been a bit of a graveyard unless things go your way. Eg Bundoran they only got home in >55, Code Bailey they walked the first half, Field Marshall they went 1.51 the week before he produced a 1.46 so there is reasons for outliers. Ego has probably been one of the better runs of horses draw >5 in these heats over the past number of years.

Better Eclipse had almost everything go right and beat a NR85 100-1 shot by a length (Chevrons Art). Ego worked in the run and beat FFA/ID horses by lengths. Their respective prices reflect this.

I think the top 3 seeds have a bit on the rest of them but if Ego draws 1-4 I think he still a genuine winning chance. Maybe there is some loyalty and/or continuity at play but Luke stuck with him over Louis in the heat so that could be worth reading into as well.

Fitness has seemed to be an issue hence running in Casey Classic and Newcastle Mile which is different to how McCarthy usually does things so now he has that fitness I think we'll see something close to Egos best in the Mile.

[Messenger]

Thanks Brendan

[Messenger]

King Of Swing 1
Spirit Of St Louis 2


Unreal

[aussiebreno]

Thats an unreal draw for the top 2 seeds. King on first glance looks a good thing - guess only concern is if something applies pressure he doesn't really have the option to back off whereas Louis can settle in.

My market post draw would be

1 King of Swing $1.80
2 Spirit of St Louis $3.00
3 Majestic Cruiser $18.00
4 Bundoran $21.00
5 Mach Dan $51.00
6 Expensive Ego $15.00
7 Jay Ok $51.00
8 Like a Wildfire $101.00
9 Bondi Lockdown $15.00
10 Better Eclipse $51.00

[Messenger]

The TAB not quite as generous as you Brendan

[Messenger]

A better/full market