Yearling Sale's

[peteboss4]

Sydney sales.

The results are in and that guy who said 'even the yearling sales will cop a hiding this year' in another post (domination post) was spot on.

Terrible sale.

[Triple V]

Sure was. I have attended every single Sydney APG since the inception of the Series, since way back when George Aiken did all the work with Carlton & United to get the series $$$ backed and up & running and I first sold one at the 2nd APG Sale ever held.
In all that time I have NEVER seen such a tough marketplace.

If we were only to take basic production costs taken into account it reveals that the vast majority of the Vendors out there at Randwick yesterday have effectively paid someone to take their yearling. Even if you went Service Fee out as far as an initial cost was concerned, most Vendors would not have made even the most marginal of profits even if they had received said Service Fee for free.

A number of negative factors converged & combined yesterday to create more bloodshed than you'd see on the Killing Floor of Roger Fletcher's Abattoir at Dubbo.
In no particularly order of importance and more than likely not limited to, I think they are...
(1) Fillies/Mares Only racing opportunities at starvation levels. (eg. 2yo fillies with 9/14 from 66 from a little over a week ago until March 31st).
(2) Corruption in NSW still not completely dealt with.
(3) Service fees & associated breeding costs now at unsustainable levels.
(4) Generally poor economic conditions...ask most people in small business how they're travelling.

Once I manage to collect my thoughts and line up on the shortfalls of various bodies & individuals I'll post accordingly. Right now, I'm still stunned after yesterday. As a good mate of mine said to me on Sunday while 20m away in the ring another Vendor was led to the slaughter "This will kill off the last of the true believers". Couldn't have said it better.

[teecee]

I'm going blue waiting with baited breath to see how our sales go.
Putting my first yearling into the sales (Chch day 1) on behalf of my American stable clients. They may be up in the wee small hours wondering if they picked the right year to start selling at the sales. I'm sure though that they wil never believe it could be as bad as they experienced on their visit to Chch's sale last year.

[mango]

It was a very tough day for all concerned on sunday, i sold one and i will go close to breaking even but in saying that there was nothing wrong with the filly but looking at the previous sale's over the last 10 day's i valued her at $8k - $10k so i was happy with $9k if i wasn't i would of brought her back. Buyer's are being a lot more selective compared to previous years. It would be interesting to know how many breeders walked away after sunday thinking i'm not breeding or selling any more when you can buy them cheap and without all the risks of having to get a mare in foal and rear it to the sale stage.

[Danno]

It was a very tough day for all concerned on sunday, i sold one and i will go close to breaking even but in saying that there was nothing wrong with the filly but looking at the previous sale's over the last 10 day's i valued her at $8k - $10k so i was happy with $9k if i wasn't i would of brought her back. Buyer's are being a lot more selective compared to previous years. It would be interesting to know how many breeders walked away after sunday thinking i'm not breeding or selling any more when you can buy them cheap and without all the risks of having to get a mare in foal and rear it to the sale stage.

(1) Fillies/Mares Only racing opportunities at starvation levels. (eg. 2yo fillies with 9/14 from 66 from a little over a week ago until March 31st).
(2) Corruption in NSW still not completely dealt with.
(3) Service fees & associated breeding costs now at unsustainable levels.
(4) Generally poor economic conditions...ask most people in small business how they're travelling.

Dallas,
as much as I have disagreed with Triple on a number of subjects I reckon the factors he has quoted should all be given serious consideration by all industry stakeholders.

The yearling sales results have for many observers, been a " barometer" of the industry's health..I'm not saying the only barometer, but one that certainly indicates market confidence.If used as such the recent sales results could be interpretted to display a more significant nose dive in NSW in particular!

Some of the the factors for this are not to find, they are staring us in the face..."pay to play"...the dominance of a couple of stables and the perception that something funny is going on. Like it or not that is the perception of many people in the game, whether it's right or not.
Hence this overall perception that the game is riddled with corruption is erroding confidence and this flows to the market indicators such as the yearling sales.

Anyone who has some desire to breed, even just for their own use, ( and that's a large slice of the breeders in NSW) will agree the opportunities for female only racing in NSW and probably across AUS and NZ are inadequate. Where would womens tennis and golf be if the girls had to compete against the boys at all the Majors?

As triple mentioned the service fees of many stallions is out of step with the available prizemoney and some are downright ridiculous if you wanted to breed one to keep! Some of the higher end stallions service fees could only be considered if you are selling the product and if everyone else thats got one by the same horse does the same thing then you've got a market flooded with the progeny of this particular stallion and whats going to happen to the price when there are more yearlings than buyers?

I've mentioned the current economic climate already, people are just not spending their money, and who knows why, there are many opinions out there and I'm sure there are a few I haven't heard yet as well, but until this turns around our "game" is going to feel the pressure just like eveyone else.

Better time ahead Dallas, we just have to wait unfortunately.

Cheers,
Dan

[little fish]

I've mentioned the current economic climate already, people are just not spending their money, and who knows why, there are many opinions out there and I'm sure there are a few I haven't heard yet as well, but until this turns around our "game" is going to feel the pressure just like eveyone else.

For years I have said that the property boom and inflated housing prices would eventually lead to banks taking in a larger slice of people's incomes which would then deplete the amount of disposable income people have for other 'luxury' items.

I think it's just symptoms of 'now' thinking, availability of credit, and poor govt tax policy.

[aussiebreno]

For years I have said that the property boom and inflated housing prices would eventually lead to banks taking in a larger slice of people's incomes which would then deplete the amount of disposable income people have for other 'luxury' items.

I think it's just symptoms of 'now' thinking, availability of credit, and poor govt tax policy.

Hey Barry,
Ever wanted a job at the RBA?

[mango]

Hi Dan

There will be better time's ahead and i was happy with the price i got for my filly, people are already saying they are cutting back on breeding but i'm going the opposite way i will be breeding another 3 mare's this year to the best i can afford and then hopefully onto the yearling sale's and if they don't sell i'll just take them home and race. As i was a buyer on friday night i got a nice filly at a very good price which was under what i valued her as and then when speaking to the breeder i was told there was 2 people waiting at the gait for me as i stole her so i seen both side's as a breeder/buyer. It's a very tough game the breeding side of thing's.There is also an option that if you don't get your asking price for your yearling take it home and get it ready for the Ready to Run sale which i think is a great idea. Aussies have been going to the RTR sale in n.z for years now and spending up and now they have the chance to buy here with horses paid up for the A.P.G and other local race's.

[aussiebreno]

Hi Dan

There will be better time's ahead and i was happy with the price i got for my filly, people are already saying they are cutting back on breeding but i'm going the opposite way i will be breeding another 3 mare's this year

As supply will probably decrease (this is general consensus that some breeders won't be back), fingers crossed for you you can get a nice price next year - which given general consensus you should. I'd imagine demand will increase as well (we are at rock bottom right now) - lessened supply, increased demand = happy times.





Just getting some positive thinking into this thread.

[Danno]

Hi Dan

There will be better time's ahead and i was happy with the price i got for my filly, people are already saying they are cutting back on breeding but i'm going the opposite way i will be breeding another 3 mare's this year to the best i can afford and then hopefully onto the yearling sale's and if they don't sell i'll just take them home and race. As i was a buyer on friday night i got a nice filly at a very good price which was under what i valued her as and then when speaking to the breeder i was told there was 2 people waiting at the gait for me as i stole her so i seen both side's as a breeder/buyer. It's a very tough game the breeding side of thing's.There is also an option that if you don't get your asking price for your yearling take it home and get it ready for the Ready to Run sale which i think is a great idea. Aussies have been going to the RTR sale in n.z for years now and spending up and now they have the chance to buy here with horses paid up for the A.P.G and other local race's.

G'Day Dallas,
I noticed the Mach Three filly you stole! I believe you're on the money with the future Dallas, the disastrous sales results will not, I believe compound year after year and if we haven't seen the backend of some of the influencing issues by then I'll be dissappointed like many others.

We've only ever bred them for ourselves and that gets hard enough with all the pitfalls, you think you've seen them all and then along comes a new one...like they say, if it was easy everyone could/would do it.

The more options for vendors and buyers alike can only be good for the game and,a s you say the ready to run sale is a great option to have, these have been tried in the past with varying success, lets hope the current model gets some traction.

Cheers,
Dan