Reality Check For the McCarthy Paranoia!!!

[Maorisidol]

I did some research on http://www.harness.org.au/results/in...rch_type=daily to really check this McCarthy "domination" that has "so many" owners trainers drivers strappers (Cassie!) terrified and it just goes to show, dont believe a "story" even one so passionately delivered by the storyteller until u check the facts and figures of what really is happening.
(i am currently on annual leave for another week, hence i have time to do this!!!)

I thought if the LM machine is so good, what if i backed all his horses, i'd b a millionaire!!!

Since October 1 i wrote down a $100 win bet on every LM horse.
Where he had 2 horses racing i chose to have $50 on the shortest price LM horse to win and $25 each way on the other horse.
Where he had 3 horses in the same race, i went same for fav, and $12.50EW for the others, so spending no more than 100 per race.

Well in October i lost $1,121.50
In November i lost $1,222.50
in December i WON $1,790
but am still DOWN $316 up till yesterday based on that example.
How come i'm not a millionaire!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

REALITY CHECK NUMBER 2...
I looked at EVERY NSW Meeting in October.
There were 275 races in the state for all trainers to have a go at.
LM had horses in 53 races...thats about 19%
That means 81% of NSW races are LM FREE !!!!!!!

He won 24 races, thats 8.7% holy crap, there's a domination!!!
That means 91.3% of races were won by OTHER TRAINERS!!!!!!

He had 19 places = 6.9%

He RAN LAST 9 TIMES! And this is all only for OCTOBER.

Now to the paranoid, pass this around to your mates who are walking around trotting tracks shaking their heads and raising their eyebrows!

[Trotter]

You sure done your research

[tiny]

Great post I notice it was LM free day at bankstown today.
I notice Boris got a double though and his next door neighbor just got back from America.
"Bet he's filling em up too ah"

[Thevoiceofreason]

Great work

[David Summers]

Thanks Maoris for all the work you put into your stats.

The figures don't lie , although you will never convince some of the jealous morons that post on these forums. I could name them , but really no need to , I think every regular contributor to these forums knows who you all are.

[M.John]

New to here ,,, These countless Internet forum topics with countless whingers is simply a case of people who do not have success hating to witness someone else's success. Common error among a lot of struggling harness participants, to busy worrying about everybody else instead of worrying about their own. Lukes a great trainer but he is very smart. Don't see him picking up horses that are on the way down, he gets good stock on a good mark, don't see him out getting old claimers and winning 10 races with them. The last horse I can remember was Lively Highlander that he got that I think is past his prime (more than likely only trained the horse for his mate) and the horse didn't last long. Also didn't win 5 in a row.

[p plater]

Great stats Maoris, based on your stats LM won 24 from 53 races, thats 45%, now lets work out how to get better odds and you will be a millionaire.
Wish I could back 45% winners

[Old Frank]

New to here ,,, These countless Internet forum topics with countless whingers is simply a case of people who do not have success hating to witness someone else's success. Common error among a lot of struggling harness participants, to busy worrying about everybody else instead of worrying about their own. Lukes a great trainer but he is very smart. Don't see him picking up horses that are on the way down, he gets good stock on a good mark, don't see him out getting old claimers and winning 10 races with them. The last horse I can remember was Lively Highlander that he got that I think is past his prime (more than likely only trained the horse for his mate) and the horse didn't last long. Also didn't win 5 in a row.

This man speak the truth!!!!!!!!

Well said Michael.

The good stock on a good mark is spot on.

And your point about participants worrying about what everyone else is doing, what about harness participants who train a winner every pancake day, yet tell you everything every trainer who's actually winning races what their doing wrong? Have seen it (and heard it unfortunately!) thousands of times, yet they could barely train a dog to sit themselves!

[candykisses]

[QUOTE=Maorisidol;15400]I did some research on http://www.harness.org.au/results/in...rch_type=daily to really check this McCarthy "domination" that has "so many" owners trainers drivers strappers (Cassie!) terrified and it just goes to show, dont believe a "story" even one so passionately delivered by the storyteller until u check the facts and figures of what really is happening.
(i am currently on annual leave for another week, hence i have time to do this!!!)

I thought if the LM machine is so good, what if i backed all his horses, i'd b a millionaire!!!

Since October 1 i wrote down a $100 win bet on every LM horse.
Where he had 2 horses racing i chose to have $50 on the shortest price LM horse to win and $25 each way on the other horse.
Where he had 3 horses in the same race, i went same for fav, and $12.50EW for the others, so spending no more than 100 per race.

Well in October i lost $1,121.50
In November i lost $1,222.50
in December i WON $1,790
but am still DOWN $316 up till yesterday based on that example.
How come i'm not a millionaire!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

REALITY CHECK NUMBER 2...
I looked at EVERY NSW Meeting in October.
There were 275 races in the state for all trainers to have a go at.
LM had horses in 53 races...thats about 19%
That means 81% of NSW races are LM FREE !!!!!!!

He won 24 races, thats 8.7% holy crap, there's a domination!!!
That means 91.3% of races were won by OTHER TRAINERS!!!!!!

He had 19 places = 6.9%

He RAN LAST 9 TIMES! And this is all only for OCTOBER.

Now to the paranoid, pass this around to your mates who are walking around trotting tracks shaking their heads and raising their eyebrows![/QUOTE

I apologise for offending anyone on here , I was just stating what I have been observing as I get around the tracks, .( as apposed to people that sit on computers all day) I can't change what I see and hear.

Ash 53 races 24 wins is very close to 50% and your punting example is flawed . as most of his starters are $1.10 to $1.30 if you have the same bet on each starter even at a 50% strike rate you will lose eg 10 bets at $100 you invest $1,000, 5 win at average price of $1.50 you collect $ 750 for a loss of $250 even though you have backed 5 out of 10, using your method you would have to win more like 8 out of 10 to break even.

Cassie

[mango]

Hi Cassie
No need to apologise to anyone on here, your entitled to your opinion. And i don't doubt for one minute on what you have been observing and hearing around the tracks. Maybe they should put more effort into getting there house in order instead of rubbishing other people.