Reply With QuoteAs I thought, willing to bag him but not willing to bet against himOriginally Posted by Maorisidol
So true Bailey,funny how the West Aussies (and other fans) cant see that when he races over here, its like they cant admit to it.
Thanks Paul for the mile rates, tells a story doesnt it.
As I thought, willing to bag him but not willing to bet against him
itmq has won a race from leading before and just before he came east he won from sitting park at his last wa start, I like to see smoken up come from the rear in the last 400-500 meters and let see if he can do it from both ends, but the way lance drives smoken up we well never know
Doing it both ends in the same race, not one or the other. Like this http://media.harness.org.au/nsw/MEM30041103.wmv
terror i have alot of respect for quinny there is no doubt that he is a superstar he has a freakish turn of speed and is so dominant in W.A, but he had every chance in the vic cup to unleash that sprint and couldnt. Against the very best he needs to be driven cold and when jnr does that then he needs luck of not running into a traffic jam.
In regards to Smoken up i think Bailey's post has answered that fair and square.
Quinny will go back to W.A and dominate the two features in January as well as the inter heat in February because around Gloucester Park he is near unbeatable, but it will be back to a level playing field come interdominion time and barrier draws will again be so vital.
After watching Mah sish in the Vic Cup and seeing how easily Terror to love ran past him in the NZ Cup I wonder could he be the new kid on the block. Well lets not get ahead of ourselves the inter is still about 2 months away.
100% on all counts Littlelenny
will be very interesting to see how Terror to Love performs over here, looking forward to it.
Interesting how so many people say that "barrier draws will be all important" Barrier 12 was a lovely draw for C Blaster, and you see it so often in big races that "bad barriers" turn into good barriers because these races are rarely lead,sit up and dash home type races.Maybe with 10 across the front draws are more important, but a longer distance normally negates that because moves need to be made.i won't be put off backing something that draws wide that's for sure.
Guess those sectional times things tell a story...just not sure what the story is! They handy if you use them with other things I guess eg. watching replays. Can often spot one thats run a much better race than what it looks like at first glance knowing the times its gone.
Son and I made a spreadsheet. Can get each horses actual mile rate for entire race and then use those sectional times to work out each horses lead time as well. Then can adjust for them being two wide, three wide etc. Use all that and can work out what they would have gone if went same speed as actually did go, but were on the pegs. Don't know that means anything either though!! The ones that were on the pegs don't get adjusted at all but would have gone quicker had they been on the back of one that would have gone quicker.
Eg Race distance 2240m. Caribbean Blaster ran approx 2274 metres. 4 bends - 4.25m extra for each if 2 wide, 8.5m if 3 wide, etc He went round 2 - 3 wide 1 - 4 wide and 1 -2 wide.
So (2 x 8.5) + (1 x 12.75) + (1 x 4.25) = 34metres. This from a kid who was doing no good at maths!!
He went 1.53.7 milerate. Adjust that for fact he went 34ms further than race distance becomes 1.52.06. ITMQ was on fence around every bend except last one when he hooked out near end of bend. So his time not adjusted much. Stays about 1.54. But had he been on back of Caribbean Blaster going 1.52 no doubt he goes quicker.
Also they give you sectionals in 400m blocks. Say one 1/4 says went 28. Might be 200m in 15, 200m in 13. If 2nd 200m is round a bend and horse out 3 wide its actually gone heaps quicker.
And then you have stuff like might be 3 wide with cover or 3 wide with no cover, etc etc etc... How do you adjust for that? Some horses can cop no cover, some can't. Then interference, etc
They still a handy tool though.
Gold Ace finished 9th. We got him finishing 5th and he got held up behind Washakie going down back. And he ran the gate too.
When we get our spreadsheet perfect will corner the market!!
Love your work Paul,
I am in neither camp on this one, however I recall an episode many years ago when I was still training on the Newcastle Showground, it was a very wet and muddy Sunday morning workouts, the track ( in those days 550 Yards circumference) was really slippery and even pacework with a set horse was about as quick as you'd like to go...along comes one of the local blokes and he says his horse worked it's last lap in 40 seconds!!!! ( the track record at the time was held by Bold Biami at 40.8 secs, and Bold Biami had just won the NSW Derby and RC Simpson Sprint)
I said to this bloke, mate did you have your watch turned on for the whole lap?????
He goes, aww yeah, the clock said 46 seconds , then I took off 3 seconds for the mud, another 2 seconds cos we worked a cart off the fence, and another cos I reckon he could have gone a bit quicker if I'd really got up him!!!!!
A very good old trainer once told me..dont worry about clocks and times, dont worry about what you ran second to and how the race panned out, measure your horse on what he can beat.
Cheers,
Dan
Paul
I always look at the lead time, this usually tells if the race is going to be won by a horse coming from the back or if the front four are going to be hard to best. I like your work on the times.
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