Roll With Joe
+ Reply to Thread
Page 2 of 4 FirstFirst 1 2 3 4 LastLast
Results 11 to 20 of 32

Thread: Big stables less dominant recently?

  1. #11
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year mightymo will become famous soon enough
    Real Name
    Harvey Kaplan
    Location
    Melbourne
    Posts
    647
    Horses
    Bling It On, Nike Franco, Cruz Bromac
    Quote Originally Posted by Danno View Post
    Harvey,

    I am not going to waste any more of my time,

    you must be right, I must therefore be an idiot

    totals 36 races won by 30 trainers


    totals 34 races won by 25 trainers.

    Many years ago I worked with a "white" south african bloke, he was a smart bloke except for when you disagreed with him..... and then he became a different bloke altogether he was then a "my way or the highway" fella to deal with.

    Cheers,
    Dan
    I dont know how else to spell this out. If (and i have shown that I disagree) we take your stats on face value, that still doesnt show that "BIG stables are less dominant". What I have tried to show you is that I believe its the smaller stables who may have had 2 or 3 winners, that may now have had only 1 winner.

    I genuinely dont believe that there have been any"big stables that have been less dominant"

    Feel free to provide any evidence...

    PS - how do you define "big" stables?I can only think of a handful of trainers(at best), so it shouldnt be too hard for you to bring up the evidence

  2. #12
    Member Gelding Lenem will become famous soon enough
    Real Name
    Lenny Bagle
    Location
    Caulfield,Vic
    Posts
    57
    Quote Originally Posted by Danno View Post
    Harvey,

    I am not going to waste any more of my time,

    you must be right, I must therefore be an idiot

    totals 36 races won by 30 trainers


    totals 34 races won by 25 trainers.

    Many years ago I worked with a "white" south african bloke, he was a smart bloke except for when you disagreed with him..... and then he became a different bloke altogether he was then a "my way or the highway" fella to deal with.

    Cheers,
    Dan
    I find it hard to believe that anyone could believe for one second that this "statistic" could arouse any sort of suspicion.The two periods you have chosen are not representative (in statistical terms) of anything and even if we were to ignore that major flaw in your "theory" the difference is so small as to be insignificant.

  3. #13
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year broncobrad has a spectacular aura about
    Real Name
    Brad Leach
    Location
    Northern Rivers
    Posts
    782
    G'day Harvey We can make the numbers do what we like, I am sure we could make them do some pretty interesting aerobatics if we choose. I am perplexed as to why you appear to be so thin-skinned when the question arises as to why the more dominant stables may not be doing so well. There could be a myriad of reasons as to why, such as spelling, injuries, illness, animal movements, programming, stable quality, stable support etc. Or they just might not have the cattle. It was you that raised the McCarthy name on this thread. As a healthy supporter of that stable one would expect you to spring to their defence, but you are jumping at shadows. There have been numerous attacks on this stable since I have been on this forum and I have no intention of revisiting any of them, it has been done to death.

    There is no doubt that this stable since it has set up shop in Sydney has set the bar very high with some astoundingly successful results. The question raised in this thread was "Big Stables less dominant at present". To give some type of illustration for you, here is a quick run down of some of the more successful stables (NSW) in the last few years using the State Premierships as a resource. You can pick these apart if you choose and cite reasons for changes in figures for various reasons but I cannot find a better way to make any sort of fairer comparison. Question the figures if you choose, but don't pick it apart with your uninhibited fondness for the McCarthy camp. To make the figures resemble some sense I have combined the John/Belinda stables for the current year and Luke for previous years. Remember these are State figures. Cannot find State numbers for Thorn so have used his Metropolitan Premiership figures for 2012/2013

    2012/13 McCarthys 555 Runners 121 Winners 21.8% Strike Rate
    " Turnbull, S 581 " 101 " 17% "
    Thorn 104 " 11 " 10.5% " (Metrop)
    " Fitzpatrick, P 278 " 50 " 18%

    2011/12 McCarthy, L 667 " 214 " 32% "
    " Thorn 374 " 79 " 21% " (State)
    " Turnbull, S 973 " 145 " 15% "
    " Fitzpatrick, P 529 " 104 " 20% "

    2010/11 Fitzpatrick, P 603 " 128 " 21% "
    " Turnbull, S 789 " 125 " 16% "
    " McCarthy, L 251 " 251 " 33% "
    " Thorn 332 " 81 " 24% "

    There are two stables here, on these figures alone that are under-performing on previous strike rates. One of them is the stable that you are once again defending even though nobody has made one assertion in that regard one way or another.

    Gee Harvey, from my perspective if a stable that is knocking out a consistent 33% strike rate winners to runners ratio, then in my book a stable that has now amassed more family support through regulatory intervention drops down to a paltry 22%, I would be entitled as an observer outside that particular stable to ponder the reasons for such a slump in performances on track.

    I am sure you will enlighten me in my errors with rubbery figures, personally I don't enjoy scrutinising every little fact and figure to make a case, it is a waste of my time. However, in regard to the larger/more successful stables figures in decline, I note year in year out Captain Steve Turnbull hits consistent figures ad nauseum. Go figure!

  4. #14
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year broncobrad has a spectacular aura about
    Real Name
    Brad Leach
    Location
    Northern Rivers
    Posts
    782
    Just read the above post which looks like gooblydegook but to make sense of above figures, read them as follows...

    Premiership Year Trainers Name Runners Winners Strike Rate %

    Hope that helps. F#@! I hate computers sometimes!

  5. #15
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year mightymo will become famous soon enough
    Real Name
    Harvey Kaplan
    Location
    Melbourne
    Posts
    647
    Horses
    Bling It On, Nike Franco, Cruz Bromac
    This is the last post i am making on the subject.


    From the HRA site:http://www.harness.org.au/ausbreed/r...tttrainers.htm

    Belinda in 2012/13: 238 starters for 73 wins - 30.7%
    Luke in 2011/12: 683 starters for 216 wins - 31.6%

    John in 2012/13 - 480 starters for 85 wins - 20.5%
    John in 2011/2012 - 910 starters for 160 wins - 17.6%

    Combined totals in 2012/2013: 718 starters for 158 wins - 22%
    Combined totals in 2011/2012: 1593 starters for 376 wins - 23.6%


    If that's a significant difference, then i just give up!
    Last edited by mightymo; 04-06-2013 at 01:43 PM.

  6. #16
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year Greg Hando will become famous soon enough
    Real Name
    Greg Hando
    Location
    Central West NSW
    Posts
    965
    You can't compare season to season for the fact that each stable has different horse's than the last season raced.A lot of the smaller stables are also getting better quality horse's to race in town so evening up the field so to speak is happening.You also can't add 2 stables to get 1 result they are 2 different entities. If your going to add different stables together to get a result then add Blake Fitz with Paul and Jack Butler with Steve Turnbull as well.
    Have whoever you want on but don't ever have yourself on

  7. #17
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year broncobrad has a spectacular aura about
    Real Name
    Brad Leach
    Location
    Northern Rivers
    Posts
    782
    Harvey, you are a little bit hard to keep pinned down to the line the thread alludes to and the moment someone validates an opinion you (a) attempt to alter the evidence provided that you requested and (b) do a Shane Watson, spit the dummy, grab your bat and ball and head home because you do not like the way the pitch is playing. I would have expected more from someone so well connected within the sport as you. Best that you have chosen not to respond to this thread anymore.

    For anyone else that was interested in the topic, I would like to point out that on the figures I provided on comment #13 and to make any type of comparison in the terms of a McCarthy stable influence, I illustrated ONLY the NSW state premierships. Harvey has chosen to introduce the National Premiership figures. Chalk and cheese. As we all know there was a period in that time that none of us (except stable clients) had any idea who was training what horses when Luke was sidelined. To give a clear picture of comparisons, I had to combine the 2012/13 stable of Belinda and John simply because Luke was no longer the official trainer. This is where Harvey attempts to change my representation of the true figures in regard to the decrease in strike rate of the McCarthy camp. In the year 2011/12 John McCarthy did not have enough starters in NSW to make it into the top 10 and Belinda had none. Luke topped the State that year. This year (from zero to hero), John is running 2nd, Belinda 8th. Yes Greg, you make a fair point that you can't just add the 2 stables to get one result, but prior to this year neither John or Belinda were set up in NSW, just Luke. Surely you would agree that to illustrate some semblance of a baseline to enable comparisons to previous years there is no other alternative.

    Like I said Harvey, pick the figures apart if you choose, but don't distort what I am trying to fairly represent. I am specifically addressing the NSW figures.

    Harvey...not all of us are Luke haters. Not all of us sit on the sidelines green-eyed with envy of such a successful stable. Mate, I love the sport to death. I love it in its purest form. I find it a bit difficult to understand how precious and protective you are of one particular stable (McCarthy). You don't need to be.

  8. #18
    Junior Member Weanling roosters will become famous soon enough
    Real Name
    John-Paul King
    Posts
    18
    I have to chuckle at this thread after the last 2 weeks. McArthy has won 5 races at each of the last 2 metro meets and just about all the other races won by bigger stables.

    Me thinks the thread should be changed to "Big stables continue to dominate!"

  9. #19
    Senior Member Stallion Danno is a jewel in the rough
    Real Name
    Dan Gibson
    Location
    Hunter Valley NSW Australia
    Occupation
    Driving 175:1 winners!
    Posts
    1,153
    Horses
    No Stars
    Gotta say I've had a chuckle myself "roosters", more so about the defensive line run by some contributors than the statistics.

    Cheers,
    Dan

  10. #20
    Member Yearling Diablo will become famous soon enough
    Real Name
    Greg Miller
    Posts
    38
    From the stats supplied, Belinda Mac as good a trainer as Luke and better than any other trainer in NSW. I wonder who decides who gets what horses to train. Would Luke and Belinda swap notes or train from their own ideas?

+ Reply to Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts