Originally Posted by
aussiebreno
I'll give you 8 -1 about Trigger?
Great race, can't wait.
Just a couple things on early odds.
Restrepo a definite winning chance but too short for mine. I had him $6.50. TAB got $4 fav. If does get lead, will have Trigger putting pressure. Won't get easy time of things and you'd think one of Beautide, Christen Me or FAR can get a nice cart up and run past him if enough pressure is put on. If he ends up running line with the amount of moves he will be on level playing field with Beautide, Christen Me and FAR so to take $4 just too short. Plus if Restepo in running line it means Bitobliss getting a charmed run.
Smoken Up too short. $6 is crazy after being comfortably ran down by 4 horses in the Miracle Mile that all line up here. A) Will have more pressure on this race if he does lead and B) If he death seats its a tougher run than Menangle and he couldn't win there.
Carribean Blaster too short at $9. I was on him when he won last year but don't think he is going quite as well this year. He did make some ground 3 wide in a 26.7 third quarter at Cranbourne so had excuses but he never looked like challenging. Just sort of ran on ok. Good draw on paper is irrelevant, won't be challenging for early lead because it will do a Blucolla Tigerpie in the Trueur, will end up 1-1 or 1-2. So will either get stuck in the running line a lap out or have to head the three wide line last week, and not sure how he go giving Beautide, Christen Me or FAR a cart into it. They peel off his back and catch ya later.
Bitobliss overs. I had him at $4.50 but got $7. He has never brought his best to the big stage but we know his times around Melton and the way he does it put him up there with the best. The 1.55.4 effort three wide from the tail 4 starts back wins this from the draw. The Kilmore run was one of his common WTF runs before he was never in the race the Legends. He ran on great last time out and from the draw. Trials seem to be ticking on ok. He usually sits out of the early speed battles but thats due to not getting draws, so not sure how he will go if an early speed battles arises but willing to take punt at $7.
I think with no Blacks a Fake, Smoken Up at his best from 2-5 seasons ago, or ITMQ there isn't a horse in Aust that can win from anywhere at this level and you back confidently from any draw. Maybe Beautide can, but not willing to take $5.50 when he is untested at anything other than a mile at this standard. Christen Me was looking like he would become that horse 6-12 months ago but doesn't seem to have progressed to that point yet. With this in mind is why I have settled on Bitobliss, I think a good run will be crucial in determining the winner in such an even field and from that draw he has the best chance at getting the best run in the race.
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