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Unless you are coming down Brent, let's hope the video quality is not 3rd grade again!
That's what I got from watching all the nz replays......it's nice to get reassurance from a local, much appreciated Viv. That said, $6/$2 looks amazing value for OSM. With everything being equal, Bling is probably the best horse in the race at this stage of their careers but the barrier is the equaliser IMO. Can't wait for the race, it's just gonna be amazing.....tactics from 2 very good Purdon runners vs those of the equally as good McCarthy runners, throw in the toughness of young modern plus yayas who went enormous last week (and just may be 3 pegs with em out) and it's just mouth watering.
I didn't come across Tiger Tara in the replays I watched, I must check him out. From what I watched, Locharburn did impress me, he looks extremely tough, especially when placing behind Isaiah recently. Cheers again Viv
Unless you are coming down Brent, let's hope the video quality is not 3rd grade again!
per un PUGNO di DOLLARI
Done the form today.
I think it will be fast run, both Young Modern and Lettucerockthe, will come for an early look, but ultimately Maxim will lead. Bling it On will then come round to work the chair. Sky Major leaders back.
I think Major Crocker and Paua Fella pretty even based on SA Derby. Major Crocker nowhere to be seen in the Bling it On heat, therefore think Paua Fellas heat not up to scratch. Motor Smoker won that heat, only just, and he probably on just better than Major Secret based on their runs throughout January. Major Secret didnt drop off much at all last week after harder run, so Motor Smoker got Lettucerockthe,s measure for mine and maybe even Our Maxim, but if Maxim doesn't have to work too hard Motor Smoker won't be getting past him given draws. Given Major Croker (annihilated by Bling it On) finished close to Paua Fella (SA Derby) who finished close to Motor Smoker who finished close to Major Secret (throughout Jan) I also doubt the strength of the Maxim heat. I think Bling it On has a fair bit on the opposition, but whether he can repeat last weeks effort remains to be seen.
Maxim and Sky Major. When Sky Major works Maxim beats him by 1.5 lengths. When Sky Major sits back and Maxim leads Sky Major gets within a length. Given Sky Major will have his back and cold sit I think Sky Major will be able to actually beat Maxim home.
Bling it On probably did have a bit in reserve last week, but has struggled when doing it tough eg Menangle couple weeks back. Based on how close Sky Major got last week, if that was Maxim having Yayas run, I think Maxim finishes just as close (given how far Maxim beats Sky Major by back in NZ when Sky Major works), maybe closer. Therefore if Bling works harder in the death rather than in front I think Maxim may just beat Bling. Given I think Sky Major can out sprint Maxim with cold sit, my tip is Sky Major.
Just need Maxim to lead and hope they don't hammer him too much into the ground, so he takes Sky Major to the death.
Happy to be on at $5 rather than the shorter odds on the favoured two. Lately things have changed a little bit but for a long time the Vic Derby was a NZers race so I going that way again!
Sky Major
Maxim
Bling
Motor smoker
Paua Fella
Major Secret
Lettucerockthem
I really liked Young Moderns run at Ballarat two starts back but after watching replays thought he was entitled to fight on bit more last week.
I think the top three a good tri, maybe Motor Smoker could also run a place.
But that will all be chucked on its head should Maxim not hold the lead. I think he will but could be wrong.
Like your thinking Breno, Go back to the Harness Jewels day, Sky Major driven cold and come with a big finish to win. Bling it On looks outstanding but I think Sky Major could be a danger if driven with a cold sit and Bling has a tough run.
With the way u see the race being run Brendan (I agree by the way) I'm a little surprised u didn't find a spot for Yayas. If the emergency comes out he will be beautifully placed 3 back on the pegs and will relish the hot tempo. IMO $8.50 to place seemed like a great gamble that the em will scratch. Good Luck
Yep you make a good point Brent. I'm not entirely convinced they will go to the pegs, and if in the running line then I don't think good enough covering the extra ground to place. But more than likely they go pegs, will definitely be running on late, but maybe not have enough time (or class) to catch them all. $8.50 probably a decent place bet for those inclined to go that way, at the very least you will be running on at the end and get a good cheer for your investment. Yayas beat Sky Major two lengths last start, but given the turnaround in work plus 1 length head start I think Sky Major will be able to turn tables.
For the rest of the night, I can't see Guaranteed getting beat (very brave comment by me given his odds lol). Smudge Bromac will find the claimer a bit easier to what he has been racing, in with a big shot. I was really impressed with Metro Mike in the Pure Steel. I think he is the bet of the night.
At Menangle I can't see For A Reason getting beat (another brave comment). Nike Franco might be worth a win bet, seems that is a race in two with Spicy Stride (yet another brave comment!).
Yayas went terrific last week. The first time we've seen him driven with cover and I was very impressed. Brent is spot on, straight to the pegs for him, hopefully 3 back if the 1 & 8 hold up and he's a great chance from there. Took 61 and 11 before the scratching, happy to tip back in now the reserve is out @ 41 and 8. I would be stunned if they didn't go to the pegs and I'm sure they will. It should be solidly run to take the sting out Luke's phenom and the pegs is dynamite @ Melton when they run along.
Agreed with Metro Mike Brendan. $2.75 @ IAS, you'd better get some of that before I go back in for seconds. I'm going to throw Arber in and have a piece of the Quin. I think he leads out then hands up.Originally Posted by aussiebreno
$2.50 for Easy On The Eye, I'm happy to take that. Luke on. He'll run the gate then trail Wiggy. Lauren will run a strong Q3 to try and take the sting out of him but he should be too classy over 2240. Charlie a good chance of running into 2nd.
$4.20 Beauty Secret is great value. Not raced for a month but check her trial out last weekend. I also had a nibble in that race on Victoria May @ 100 and 21. If you ignore the last start failure, her previous form was excellent.
In the Claimer, whilst watching the Pure Steel to look in on Metro Mike, I spotted Rakarebel. $15 and $4.40 is flying under the radar but I have no idea where he lands.
As good a thing as For A Reason is at Menangle to Win, I think Suave Stuey Lombo is as good a hope to finish in the placings. $3.50 is gone though. The other one I like at Menangle is Satellite Ace. Ladbrokes put up $6.50. I think Garnet River trails him and is the danger. Nice Quin.
+ Yayas with Multiples around the pegs in the Derby, that's my night on the punt.
Good Luck !
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