Originally Posted by
aussiebreno
Done the form today.
I think it will be fast run, both Young Modern and Lettucerockthe, will come for an early look, but ultimately Maxim will lead. Bling it On will then come round to work the chair. Sky Major leaders back.
I think Major Crocker and Paua Fella pretty even based on SA Derby. Major Crocker nowhere to be seen in the Bling it On heat, therefore think Paua Fellas heat not up to scratch. Motor Smoker won that heat, only just, and he probably on just better than Major Secret based on their runs throughout January. Major Secret didnt drop off much at all last week after harder run, so Motor Smoker got Lettucerockthe,s measure for mine and maybe even Our Maxim, but if Maxim doesn't have to work too hard Motor Smoker won't be getting past him given draws. Given Major Croker (annihilated by Bling it On) finished close to Paua Fella (SA Derby) who finished close to Motor Smoker who finished close to Major Secret (throughout Jan) I also doubt the strength of the Maxim heat. I think Bling it On has a fair bit on the opposition, but whether he can repeat last weeks effort remains to be seen.
Maxim and Sky Major. When Sky Major works Maxim beats him by 1.5 lengths. When Sky Major sits back and Maxim leads Sky Major gets within a length. Given Sky Major will have his back and cold sit I think Sky Major will be able to actually beat Maxim home.
Bling it On probably did have a bit in reserve last week, but has struggled when doing it tough eg Menangle couple weeks back. Based on how close Sky Major got last week, if that was Maxim having Yayas run, I think Maxim finishes just as close (given how far Maxim beats Sky Major by back in NZ when Sky Major works), maybe closer. Therefore if Bling works harder in the death rather than in front I think Maxim may just beat Bling. Given I think Sky Major can out sprint Maxim with cold sit, my tip is Sky Major.
Just need Maxim to lead and hope they don't hammer him too much into the ground, so he takes Sky Major to the death.
Happy to be on at $5 rather than the shorter odds on the favoured two. Lately things have changed a little bit but for a long time the Vic Derby was a NZers race so I going that way again!
Sky Major
Maxim
Bling
Motor smoker
Paua Fella
Major Secret
Lettucerockthem
I really liked Young Moderns run at Ballarat two starts back but after watching replays thought he was entitled to fight on bit more last week.