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  1. #11
    Senior Member 4YO brent_L will become famous soon enough
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    Did have a little browse over today's cards but had decided to leave them alone, that is until I saw your post Brendan which helped confirm suspicions the 2 would lead.....a nice unexpected little win.
    I'm gonna throw the profits on the one horse today that did interest me a little, IM ON TARGET Goulburn R6 PLACE @ $1.65
    Should be loads of early speed allowing him to descend late and run into the money. I wouldn't be surprised if the 1 snuck thru late at odds either. The $1.65 ain't value by any means but is fair IMO and there's every chance it starts marginally longer on betfair.
    Cheers and GL to those punting this arvo.

  2. #12
    Senior Member Stallion aussiebreno is just really nice aussiebreno is just really nice
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    Quote Originally Posted by brent_L View Post
    Did have a little browse over today's cards but had decided to leave them alone, that is until I saw your post Brendan which helped confirm suspicions the 2 would lead.....a nice unexpected little win.
    I'm gonna throw the profits on the one horse today that did interest me a little, IM ON TARGET Goulburn R6 PLACE @ $1.65
    Should be loads of early speed allowing him to descend late and run into the money. I wouldn't be surprised if the 1 snuck thru late at odds either. The $1.65 ain't value by any means but is fair IMO and there's every chance it starts marginally longer on betfair.
    Cheers and GL to those punting this arvo.
    If only Luda was able to hold leaders back, but you finding the winner still a good result for this thread.
    Yes $1.65 Im on Target does seem good. Beaten just 7m behind Beautide and narrowly down to Seel n Print. Has raced in death lately, who knows maybe Bettor Bet Black might even be happy to hand up. Good luck.

  3. #13
    Senior Member 4YO brent_L will become famous soon enough
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    Haha, another collect!!! Late Scr, float breakdown.

  4. #14
    Senior Member 4YO brent_L will become famous soon enough
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    Not much value but these are my plays for tonight.
    AVONNOVA Albion Park R5 @ $1.65 Sportsbet
    Using this guy to boost the price of my weekend sports multis. I reckon he's currently the states best pacer and will be more than capable of sitting 3 wide over the final lap in winning comfortably. I rate him $1.30.
    IM SMOULDERING Melton R6 @ $2.50 Sportsbet
    Fact: IT IS BILLY is the best horse in the race but is probably a better stayer than sprinter
    Fact: it is nigh on impossible to snag back to last and come round the entire field at Melton going 1.54 when 'normal' race tempo presents
    Fact: if the 1 begins as well as it did last week it will be leading.
    I'm betting on G Lang's nouse here. Believe there may be a soft lead (3 & 7 capable of preventing this) and reckon he can push the go button at the appropriate stage to beat the 8. I would have preferred to try and Lay the 8 at around $2.40 but alas, I'll be at the footy so I'm punting on Gav.
    MAGICAL TELF Melton R7 @ $2.25 Sportsbet
    I believe he is clearly the best horse in the race and although there looks to be a distinct lack of pace in the race I rate him $1.70. In this field he is good enough to go against his regular racing pattern and search for a prominent spot. If for some reason there is a bit of pressure on the leader (1), he will simply dive bomb them from back in the field. Dangers: bad luck/drive
    ***STENT to PLACE Melton R8 for reasons mentioned before. Current top odds $2.30 with Sportingbet. I'm on @ $2- (Sportsbet) & $2.10 with B365 (usually the best option as they match the tote price if it happens to pay more than the fixed price u chose.....provided of course u can keep an account open with them). Have also had a few goes at the win @ $6.50 with Sportsbet.......only because they are offering money back if u run 2nd or 3rd (up to $100).
    GL to those punting tonight!

  5. #15
    Senior Member Stallion aussiebreno is just really nice aussiebreno is just really nice
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    Young

    Race 1. Cooba Creek. I was really impressed with his run last week. He worked in quick time to the death, as soon as he got there I actually said to the person next to me that that was the end of Cooba Creek, but he fought on very bravely and nearly won the race. A big run. That was in a C2-C3 race last week, but its a C1-C2 race this week. Not a big drop on paper but have a look at his opposition last week. High view Conall had been winning Menangle Country heats and finals and ran in the Canberra Cup. Mach Cade had been racing in C3-C5 races and same story with Hayden who took on top 3yos last yr. The one and two horse ran a slower time same track and dust then Cooba Creek last week. A few have form around Smokin bopper. Precious M sat outside Smokin Bopper and didnt go down to big a margin. High view Conall was in that race and never seen daylight, if he did he prob wins. Precious M will get a much easier trip this time and that's why I am throwing it in as the other winning chance. $40 wins on both Cooba Creek and Precious M. $20 quinella. Do not take under $2 Precious M and Id even hesitate taking under $3.

    Race 4. It's a $16,000 Oaks so obviously there is some decent fillies in the race. But 1.59.4 around Young by Perfectionist is a good run and it looked to have something up the sleeve. The danger is Artista Lombo or Takahoa could take it on early, leaving Freedom Is and Grin and Gold with a big chance to run them down. $100 wins Perfectionist. Don't take under $1.50 but with Freedom Is in the field I can't see that happening.

    Race 6 Monifeith. Beaten 5m and 10m Mach Beauty and FAR. If they in this they're both $1.10. Rocketing home in 1.54 over 2400m. He has been racing grand circuit horses, the rest have been racing 'just' FFA horses. $100 wins.

    Race 8. Flight to Vegas. Beaten 20m in 1.57.5 over mile at Young. That equates to 1.59 personal time. Add 2 secs for extra distance. 2.01. Similar last start, 1.57.1. Add two secs for distance, add 1 secs as wont be on pegs, will need to cover ground, add 1.2 secs btn margin which gives 2.01.3. Everything else has been getting beaten in slower times. $200 wins.

  6. #16
    Senior Member Stallion aussiebreno is just really nice aussiebreno is just really nice
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    Quote Originally Posted by aussiebreno View Post
    Young

    Race 1. Cooba Creek. I was really impressed with his run last week. He worked in quick time to the death, as soon as he got there I actually said to the person next to me that that was the end of Cooba Creek, but he fought on very bravely and nearly won the race. A big run. That was in a C2-C3 race last week, but its a C1-C2 race this week. Not a big drop on paper but have a look at his opposition last week. High view Conall had been winning Menangle Country heats and finals and ran in the Canberra Cup. Mach Cade had been racing in C3-C5 races and same story with Hayden who took on top 3yos last yr. The one and two horse ran a slower time same track and dust then Cooba Creek last week. A few have form around Smokin bopper. Precious M sat outside Smokin Bopper and didnt go down to big a margin. High view Conall was in that race and never seen daylight, if he did he prob wins. Precious M will get a much easier trip this time and that's why I am throwing it in as the other winning chance. $40 wins on both Cooba Creek and Precious M. $20 quinella. Do not take under $2 Precious M and Id even hesitate taking under $3.

    Race 4. It's a $16,000 Oaks so obviously there is some decent fillies in the race. But 1.59.4 around Young by Perfectionist is a good run and it looked to have something up the sleeve. The danger is Artista Lombo or Takahoa could take it on early, leaving Freedom Is and Grin and Gold with a big chance to run them down. $100 wins Perfectionist. Don't take under $1.50 but with Freedom Is in the field I can't see that happening.

    Race 6 Monifeith. Beaten 5m and 10m Mach Beauty and FAR. If they in this they're both $1.10. Rocketing home in 1.54 over 2400m. He has been racing grand circuit horses, the rest have been racing 'just' FFA horses. $100 wins.

    Race 8. Flight to Vegas. Beaten 20m in 1.57.5 over mile at Young. That equates to 1.59 personal time. Add 2 secs for extra distance. 2.01. Similar last start, 1.57.1. Add two secs for distance, add 1 secs as wont be on pegs, will need to cover ground, add 1.2 secs btn margin which gives 2.01.3. Everything else has been getting beaten in slower times. $200 wins.
    Race 1. Precious M gallops out, broken gear. Cooba Creek. I think this horse may be tougher than he is faster. Can't keep up when they really get rolling, but can continue churning out quickish quarters. Regardless, when they run home in 28 and 28.9 at Young he didn't have much hope from back where he was. Not a bad run.

    Race 4. Perfectionist won, but I nearly wanted to be on Freedom Is at the $6, didn't think it would start that price. From that draw, and when it got the lead with out so much of a whimper from the front row horses Perfectionist was never going to get beat though. Have a look at Marys Little Rose hang back at the start and let Artista Lombo in behind the leader. Artista Lombo wasn't good enough to win, but that is a disgrace, no QDT in the results section, I await stewards report.

    Race 6. Very strange, all three McCarthy horses beaten over 20m. Has that ever happened before? Two Eye See gone a long way from home, something wrong perhaps? Machtavish and Monifeith set enormous tasks three wide last mile around four turns.

    Race 8. Flight to Vegas. 2.03.2, had the best imaginable trip, and does absolutely nothing in the straight. I don't understand why, a significant drop on past performances for mine. As per my calcs above. Beaten 20m in 1.57.5, mathematics says add 1.5 secs so 1.59. Tried and true at Wagga and Young is adding 2 secs for the mile to middle distance (just take a look at Perfectionist). Thats 2.01. Hows it get flogged in 2.03 is beyond me, running about 2.04 itself. Granted the 2 second theory can be off, but not by that far. A poor performance from Flight to Vegas.

  7. #17
    Senior Member Stallion aussiebreno is just really nice aussiebreno is just really nice
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    Quote Originally Posted by brent_L View Post
    Not much value but these are my plays for tonight.
    AVONNOVA Albion Park R5 @ $1.65 Sportsbet
    Using this guy to boost the price of my weekend sports multis. I reckon he's currently the states best pacer and will be more than capable of sitting 3 wide over the final lap in winning comfortably. I rate him $1.30.
    IM SMOULDERING Melton R6 @ $2.50 Sportsbet
    Fact: IT IS BILLY is the best horse in the race but is probably a better stayer than sprinter
    Fact: it is nigh on impossible to snag back to last and come round the entire field at Melton going 1.54 when 'normal' race tempo presents
    Fact: if the 1 begins as well as it did last week it will be leading.
    I'm betting on G Lang's nouse here. Believe there may be a soft lead (3 & 7 capable of preventing this) and reckon he can push the go button at the appropriate stage to beat the 8. I would have preferred to try and Lay the 8 at around $2.40 but alas, I'll be at the footy so I'm punting on Gav.
    MAGICAL TELF Melton R7 @ $2.25 Sportsbet
    I believe he is clearly the best horse in the race and although there looks to be a distinct lack of pace in the race I rate him $1.70. In this field he is good enough to go against his regular racing pattern and search for a prominent spot. If for some reason there is a bit of pressure on the leader (1), he will simply dive bomb them from back in the field. Dangers: bad luck/drive
    ***STENT to PLACE Melton R8 for reasons mentioned before. Current top odds $2.30 with Sportingbet. I'm on @ $2- (Sportsbet) & $2.10 with B365 (usually the best option as they match the tote price if it happens to pay more than the fixed price u chose.....provided of course u can keep an account open with them). Have also had a few goes at the win @ $6.50 with Sportsbet.......only because they are offering money back if u run 2nd or 3rd (up to $100).
    GL to those punting tonight!
    Stand and applaud, three from four. Good tipping.

  8. #18
    Senior Member 4YO brent_L will become famous soon enough
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    Brent Lambert
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    Quote Originally Posted by aussiebreno View Post
    Stand and applaud, three from four. Good tipping.
    Thanks Brendan. I was way off it seems with a couple of the prices. Looked up results on Ladbrokes to find Avonnova $2.20 and M Telf $3.40. That aside it was a great night, topped off by being at the ground to watch the Giants hand the Swans their ass.
    On a side note, really liked the performance of Keystone Del the other night and reckon he might have the right combination of speed and stamina to give the Great Southern a shake this weekend.
    Cheers

  9. #19
    Senior Member 4YO brent_L will become famous soon enough
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    Brent Lambert
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    20/3 TOP VENUE Bendigo R4
    This is a 'blackbooker' from its last start. After looking thru the form of the race I am hoping to bet at $2-.....will not bet at less than $1.75 however. There could be support for the 5 or 11 which may help raise the price.
    TV does have some gate speed but I'm not positive it will be able to cross the 1 (6 also has early speed). He has shown a propensity to still manage to finish off his races after doing a little work early, but that said, I would prefer to see the driver ease at the start and come with one run at the finish.
    Should be winning. Cheers.

  10. #20
    Senior Member Stallion aussiebreno is just really nice aussiebreno is just really nice
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    I agree Top Venue is the one to beat. I was lucky potting him last week.

    Only reason I won't back him is I don't know how good the 5 is. They went 33 2nd quarter last week which helped him, I just wonder about its speed and toughness. Is the 28.7 final quarter a reflection that the horse doesn't have the speed to run a low 28 quarter, or is it a reflection the horse was tired. Because if he was tired, well he is no chance in this and I'd take $1.50 about Top Venue. But if it was more a reflection the horse just can't run a low 28 quarter, well he is still in with a hope. If the 11 gets a draw and stays in its gear it will win a race or two somewhere, but from back there it will be tough. One more thing, sometimes after a gutbuster first up a horse can struggle 2nd up.

    I hope you can get your $2. I would probably need $3 (can't see that happening) for me to have a bet, but he is still the top pick for mine.

    Now I've had a read of that race I'll go trifecta and F4 2,5/1,2,5,8,11/1,2,5,8,11 $48 for 100% tri and $48 for 100% F4.

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