How do we make Harness Racing strong via today's sports betting market

[The Form Student]

The best thing they could do would be to make it illegal to bet more than a 120% market on every race! For example on a hypothetical, if they lay every runner for the same amount in 5 races, they have made 100% profit, equal to the holdings of 1 race! Gee, if something firms up and wins, is it the end of the world for bookies? This was a hypothetical, but it is the basis for discussion.

If you look at the markets in the paper, they are a lot of rubbish, more often than not over 130%........who can take them seriously?

Form analysts to assist stewards, what a lot of rubbish............next we'll have the stewards running down to the drivers at the start, telling them your on the favourite, there's no money for it!.....we are watching you! Let racing be racing, and get rid of the "Change of tactics" rule, it stifles a free market.......the racing is becoming to controlled.......what point is it when it is announced 1 hour before the race...........if they are trying to help the "ordinary punter" they are not, he is not going to know what the hell all this means! Some will say it is to protect them and assist with knowing what is going to happen at the start........next we'll have the drivers needing to declare I'm taking off at the 600 metre mark today, not waiting for a cart up and coming out from the turn, as I usually do! The form analyst will then be saying, whether that was a correct strategy or not! Where does it end?

[arlington]

You hit it on the head The Form Student and I'd forgotten about the prices in the paper. Even though not being a new generation tech savvy guy myself I'm thinking new generation punters would look online, a corporate's site for prices. But still, the papers, where do they come from, the tipster or a selected third party? In Vic Huctchy used to? And we know it's not the end of the world for the corporates if a true odds on favourite firms up and wins...what were the stats Kev?
Oh for the days, going to the track and watching the betting ring.
Was looking at it in reference to Richard's #129 and Kev's #128 posts, and from the casual/new punter's view, being put off with those paper prices and opening prices with the corporates reflecting a true favourite. I was asking do the fair dinkum punters here find the opening markets with the betting agencies on race day accurate bearing in mind casual punters might follow the so called money. The snowball effect, naïve money following naïve money. Has always happened but am now wondering how/if the corporates influence that. Do all agencies refresh with fluctuations easily showing where the money is going? Valid points The Form Student, percentages and corporate's 'risk management'. Not disregarding the well educated punter but is it too complex for the casual/new? So bearing that in mind...with my reference to Form analysts to assist stewards, Iwas thinking along the lines of would more accurate price assessment be more beneficial to wagering before worrying about what might be a perception, the industry/punter being better served by an analyst after they jumped.

[brent_L]

A question for the punters in the forum. False odds on favourites, what are your thoughts on prices/assessments when markets first open? Not so much group one races but midweek and weekly metro meetings. Also do you feel the fluctuations, or lack of, are truly due to the weight of money invested or still influenced by the betting company's assessors?
Thinking about one of the recommendations from the Wagering Working Panel, employing a form analyst to assist stewards with race (integrity) matters, do harness racing punters, newbies/casual, need the opinion of an independent price assessor? Are the punters being offered that already? If so, how prominent is that info?

In Australian racing, Betfair is the only guide to a true market.....hence IMO there is no such thing as a 'false favourite', it's quite simply supply & demand....there is no way a parimutual pool style market where up to 18% has been taken out of the pool can be any true guide (that's not to mention the fact that one persons investment in said market can change the landscape markedly). The less said about the corporates the better.....u WILL be banned if u happen to win or show any smarts whatsoever, but to answer your question Wayne, their prices change due to weight of money especially if bets are placed soon after the market has been opened.
In regard to what punters are being offered, unless you *use betfair *bet on the tote *lose, your options become very limited.
http://fairwageringaustralia.com

[Messenger]

Wayne, in regard to your 'money following money' have you ever watched any of Ch.7's racing coverage - all they go on about is the 'market mover'. LOL and then you are trusting a bookie to be telling you the truth (and not what he wants to lay)

Brent, I notice the markets The Age puts up for the gallops (esp pre-race day) always credits Betfair as the source

[The Form Student]

Wayne, in regard to your 'money following money' have you ever watched any of Ch.7's racing coverage - all they go on about is the 'market mover'. LOL and then you are trusting a bookie to be telling you the truth (and not what he wants to lay)

Brent, I notice the markets The Age puts up for the gallops (esp pre-race day) always credits Betfair as the source

Kev, Sky on a Staurday afternoon have now introduced an additional host for the gallops from Sportsbet to update punters on the big bets and market movers, as soon as one wins they go on about how they told you about it!..........not the one that went from 2/1 to 4/1 and salutes! I have seen in the past couple of weeks where market movers have replaced the original favourite, and the original favourite has won! The market mover would not have won even "fired out of a cannon!" It's all goes by perception and the talk! On Harness Racing pre-post markets, all they are trying to do is hype up the betting action, that's all! I am sick of the tipsters tipping favourites!
Last week, I nearly fell off my chair when I saw the proposed "all up" bet proposed on a Victorian Harness meeting, 3 horses, 1 was 1/10 on, 1 was 2/1 & the other 1/25 on, if they all won, you would have got $3.33 for your $1...........if you had a $100 on it, you win $233.......unfortunately, the 2/1 chance got beat........please, I have never seen so much rubbish in all my life! They would be better off trying to get an exotic with the these "shorties" instead!

[brent_L]

So bearing that in mind...with my reference to Form analysts to assist stewards, Iwas thinking along the lines of would more accurate price assessment be more beneficial to wagering before worrying about what might be a perception, the industry/punter being better served by an analyst after they jumped.

IMO it's just not possible Wayne. The gallops markets that are put out early aren't even close to post time prices on most occasions, and there would be 50 fold the amount of analysts working on them compared to those on the trots. You just have to look at the analysis provided by 'experts' iform, trottips etc, sometimes (some would say most times) they are a cricket pitch off in their assessments. There is just no exact science that can be used.....it's all opinions until the supply & demand sorts out the market shortly before the jump.

[brent_L]

Kev, Sky on a Staurday afternoon have now introduced an additional host for the gallops from Sportsbet to update punters on the big bets and market movers

He's from the TAB and not just on Saturdays unfortunately....it just makes me wanna be sick. I see no difference in this style of marketing to that that resulted in Waterhouse being rubbished all over town.

[arlington]

Thanks for the feed back guys. I guess you can't take the g out of gamble, but the corporates....the way they've operated, a blight on the industry for both punters and returns to industry via product fees etc.

[Messenger]

http://www.harness.org.au/stewards-r...&fromstate=vic

On entering the home straight on the final occasion, while being driven out to the finish, Tibytoa (Greg Cramp) shifted out under pressure resulting in Intransit (Shayne Cramp), obtaining a clear run to its inside to ultimately win the race. Driver Greg Cramp advised that Tibytoa had a tendency to hang out throughout the race however agreed that he could have made a greater effort to maintain a straight course to the finish. Mr Greg Cramp pleaded guilty to a charge under Rule 162(1)(www) for failing to make sufficient effort to maintain a straight course which resulted in the stablemate, Intransit being advantaged when it obtained a clear run to his inside. Considering Intransit was a stablemate of Tibytoa and that Mr Cramp had been found guilty of a charge under this rule 15 months prior, Mr Greg Cramp’s licence to drive in races was suspended for a period of 4 weeks to commence midnight 12 November.

We are never going gain new punters when we put up with this crap. If he does it a 3rd time anytime in the next 2yrs - they should give him 12mths

[doncht]

How about getting Sky1 and Sky2, I think it will be a good move.