'Brosnan winds down - the game is buggered'

[Mister JayKO]

I gather those figures are for the top 3 from the top 10 of each state. Even if the top 10 was very close, you are going to see the top 3 have 30+% so those percentages are not mind blowing really but I know the point you and Dan are making

Using my Vic Only Winning Trainers database (for TAB meetings only)
The Top 15 trainers have won 1072 out of the possible 3560 races ie over 30%

My db lists 579 trainers winning at least one race in Vic
The top 15 is only 2.6% of 579
2.6% of trainers winning 30% of races

I can then take that figure in 2 directions

I could factor in all the trainers who are not on my db because they have not won a race
I am thinking the 2.6% would then become something like
<2% of trainers winning 30% of races (that is allowing for 200 non winning trainers)

The other way I could go would be to eliminate all the hobby trainers from my db
Would halving the 579 be enough? (Saying that there are 290 pro/semi pros)
If so then you could say
5.2% (2.6 x 2) of pro/semi pro trainers are winning 30% of the races

Even if I said there were only about 150 pro/semi pro trainers
that still equates to
10% of them winning 30% of the races

It would seem the pie is definitely not being shared around enough

The other argument would be that as well as the hobby trainers there should only be about 50 pro/semi pro trainers for the size of the Vic market
Some time back I can remember mentioning how little in stakes some of these top trainers are even bringing in
Looking at the linked table, Shayne Cramp for instance has <$800k of prizemoney
http://www.harness.org.au/ausbreed/r...425?d=11082014
He is Victoria's leading trainer by winners.
He obviously makes most of his money from training fees BUT on that return to owners I doubt they are very far ahead
(lets say 50 horses in the stable through the course of the season costing owners $15k each in fees etc)

Back to NZ. I would think that the NZ industry would be similar in size to the Vic industry
Would I be right in thinking that there are at least 50 pro/semi pro trainers in NZ?

Kev, with respect, statistical analysis doesn't always give you the real lie of the land. I would suggest that a very large % of the horses in the Cramp barn are there on "deals" and usually it's no cost to the owner for a fixed % of the stakes earnt, thus his training fee income would be insignificant. Most horses have been somewhere else beforehand, The NZ industry racing wise is much, much smaller than Australia, hence the export option and as Viv has pointed out is going to get smaller through the reduction in breeding.




http://www.hrv.org.au/hrv/index.cfm/...ers-directory/


The above is a link to the HRV Licence Holders Directory - If I could have dropped it into excel in an easier format I would have done an analysis for you. The first thing that hits you is the vast number of licenced trainers or drivers and I would suggest that 85% are in the hobbyist category. That is harness racings bread and butter and its heartland, burn them and you have nothing left. As well as winners you have to look at runners and who is providing them.