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Thread: Odds On Pops and Other Effects on Market Share

  1. #71
    Junior Member Yearling waggamick will become famous soon enough
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    I guess the closest you can get to pure handicapping is in CLAIMERS.
    Put too much on your horse and suffer in the draw.
    Don't put enough on and risk losing the horse.

  2. #72
    Junior Member Yearling waggamick will become famous soon enough
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    Was only a mtter of time given Mobile Phone Apps with Centre Bet, Bet365, etc.

  3. #73
    Junior Member Foal the_racing_wiz will become famous soon enough
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    Quote Originally Posted by waggamick View Post
    I guess the closest you can get to pure handicapping is in CLAIMERS.
    Put too much on your horse and suffer in the draw.
    Don't put enough on and risk losing the horse.
    I think you are spot on, and I know of others that share the same opinion. Its self handicapping essentially. The other extreme is for the handicapper to manually put the draw together(im not fully across the nsw system, but does he just put the fields together from the noms, or barrier draws also?) with the sole aim of making the race as competitive as possible.


    I accept Dans points with regard to turnover on tracks with 1 line V 2 lines. As I mentioned, it was just a 'punters perception theory' I had but if it doesnt have an effect I accept that, although I am surprised.

  4. #74
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by the_racing_wiz View Post
    I think you are spot on, and I know of others that share the same opinion. Its self handicapping essentially. The other extreme is for the handicapper to manually put the draw together(im not fully across the nsw system, but does he just put the fields together from the noms, or barrier draws also?) with the sole aim of making the race as competitive as possible.


    I accept Dans points with regard to turnover on tracks with 1 line V 2 lines. As I mentioned, it was just a 'punters perception theory' I had but if it doesnt have an effect I accept that, although I am surprised.
    If it has not shown up that could still be because the tracks that have all front are part of a some do some dont industry. By that I mean - if it is off-putting to new punters they are not likely to embrace the sport at Menangle but not at Melton. You either bet on a sport or you don't
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

  5. #75
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year arlington will become famous soon enough
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    So back to sprint lanes and punter perception. E.g. Gloucester Park racing v sprint lanes...punter perception with sprint lanes v favourites which end up odds on when it's a given they'll roll to the front without being worked by the leader?

  6. #76
    Junior Member Yearling waggamick will become famous soon enough
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    My observation is that WA has always had a different racing style..not sure why.
    On the relatively small Gloucester Park track..compared to newer tracks elsewhere..WA drivers have always seemed to be happy getting out into a third line as far back as entering the home straight with a lap to go.
    Often makes the otherwise prized one out one back position a trap.
    Seems to make for competitive racing with the lead all the way hotpot (unless they are an out and out champion) less an occurrence than in many Eastern State venues.

  7. #77
    Junior Member Yearling waggamick will become famous soon enough
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    When having a bet the average punter (well nearly all punters) looks at a race expecting a fair chance. Integrity and trust play a big part in their decision making.
    What do you think of this?
    A theoretical:
    A horse's latest form: 57977565 spell 652
    Look at the betting in its last 5 starts..all at the same track:
    2CO-2C1 $145
    2CO-2C1 $60.00
    Spell
    3CO $189
    3CO-3C1 $51.00
    CO $3.00 Favourite..ran a close placing.

    I can't find a Stewards Report for the meeting.

  8. #78
    aussiebreno
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    Quote Originally Posted by waggamick View Post
    When having a bet the average punter (well nearly all punters) looks at a race expecting a fair chance. Integrity and trust play a big part in their decision making.
    What do you think of this?
    A theoretical:
    A horse's latest form: 57977565 spell 652
    Look at the betting in its last 5 starts..all at the same track:
    2CO-2C1 $145
    2CO-2C1 $60.00
    Spell
    3CO $189
    3CO-3C1 $51.00
    CO $3.00 Favourite..ran a close placing.

    I can't find a Stewards Report for the meeting.
    Googled the form and found the horse but it would be a hell of a lot easier for people to comment if you start naming specifics Mick!

    At first glance it would seem improved run and under the odds.

    But must remember that C0 field had about 225 starts between them for 1 win. And that 1 win came at a time 8 months ago against a field of horses that had had about 150 odd starts for 0 wins between them. Not that the 2 and 3yos it's been racing against are stars.

    FWIW I don't think it should have been $3. Punters got it wrong and it was only lucky it ran 2nd with the way the race was run. Run the race 30, 32.5, 30.5, 30 like it's usual races are and it runs midfield again imho. It's just a slow horse who obviously can't make ground in back to back 30 quarters but got lucky they didn't run those times here.


    RACE 3 – DARREN MILNE PACE (C0) 1780m MS
    PLACINGS: LOMBO HAPPY HOUR, EMM THREE ELL, BUKTHSYSTEM, CONFESSIONOFICEMAN
    SECTIONALS: Mile Rate: 2.02.9 Lead Time: 11.8
    First Quarter: 30.8 Second Quarter: 31.6 Third Quarter: 30.7 Fourth Quarter: 31.0
    A pre race blood sample was taken from JUNABEE LANNER.
    LOMBO HAPPY HOUR (A Sanderson) raced four wide in the early stages before crossing to obtain a trailing position in the back straight on the first occasion.
    BUNDYS BEST (J Pascoe) raced three wide early before obtaining a position leading the one wide line.
    Stewards inquired into an incident rounding the final turn into the back straight where RICE BURNER (S Storie) broke gait whilst racing to the inside of BUNDYS BEST. It was established after taking evidence from the drivers concerned that BUNDYS BEST when crossing from a three wide position down to a one wide position was insufficiently clear of the legs of RICE BURNER and caused interference to that gelding in that he contacted the front legs causing that horse to break gait. This resulted in JUNABEE LANNER (N Coy) being checked and was obliged to race wide for a distance and inconvenienced BUKTHESYSTEM (P Chappenden). Subsequently J Pascoe was charged and pleaded guilty pursuant to Rule 163 (1) (a) and after hearing submissions on penalty his driver’s licence was suspended for a period of two weeks.
    LOMBO HAPPY HOUR raced three wide without cover from the 900m.
    Last edited by aussiebreno; 02-12-2015 at 01:59 PM.

  9. #79
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by arlington View Post
    So back to sprint lanes and punter perception. E.g. Gloucester Park racing v sprint lanes...punter perception with sprint lanes v favourites which end up odds on when it's a given they'll roll to the front without being worked by the leader?
    Good point Wayne - one that probably never entered the administrators heads when they gave sprint lanes the green light
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

  10. #80
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by waggamick View Post
    My observation is that WA has always had a different racing style..not sure why.
    On the relatively small Gloucester Park track..compared to newer tracks elsewhere..WA drivers have always seemed to be happy getting out into a third line as far back as entering the home straight with a lap to go.
    Often makes the otherwise prized one out one back position a trap.
    Seems to make for competitive racing with the lead all the way hotpot (unless they are an out and out champion) less an occurrence than in many Eastern State venues.
    We had this at Moonee Valley with the Mannings often making a 3rd line but it tends to occur later now at Melton as you cannot be doing that much work and expect to beat a half decent horse who has not spent a penny and is waiting for the sprint lane
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

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