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Thread: Odds On Pops and Other Effects on Market Share

  1. #111
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year Adaptor will become famous soon enough
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    That makes 98 driving winners for the season for Michael Bellman. ( HRA site yet to be updated I think) .

  2. #112
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Messenger View Post
    A meeting with a difference tonight at Terang. There was only one favourite that won and there was only one odds on favourite for the night and he was not the winner

    http://www.harness.org.au/meeting-re...E230615&ms=vic

    A great night for Michael Bellman - drove 3 winners and trained another
    Geelong certainly reversed this brief trend today
    7/8 favourites winning with plenty odds on including two at $1.04

    http://www.harness.org.au/meeting-re...E240615&ms=vic

    I'm sorry to see recently disqualified Dean Braun starting to appear regularly in the winners stall
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

  3. #113
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    I was thinking about how ridiculous it seemed that a 2yo having only its 2nd start could start $1.04 at Shep tonight
    I pondered why we never see such a thing in the gallops and when I thought about it I realized it basically comes down to the difference between the 2 breeds
    A thoroughbred has less than half as many potential starts in its legs
    Only a really good horse is going to start those odds in the gallops
    If you have a good one you are not going to waste those legs with starts in minor races and I guess you do not have to because
    The gallops have a greater sprinkling of big money races and the quality of fields they attract is not going to see horses go around at $1.04
    Overall I suppose the competition is more even too
    Sorry, just thinking out loud
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

  4. #114
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    7/8 favourites successful at Maryborough today.
    With none of them longer than $2.50 I wonder whether it was good for turnover

    http://www.harness.org.au/meeting-re...H191015&ms=vic
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

  5. #115
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    All the value winners at Melton yesterday made me look a little closer
    Only one odds on fav for the 8 race program (which lost)
    Maybe Restricted class meetings produce more even fields.
    Of course it could be a one off and I must admit to not paying Restricted meetings enough attention to really know

    http://www.harness.org.au/meeting-re...X161115&ms=vic
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

  6. #116
    Member Filly codywinnell will become famous soon enough
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    Quote Originally Posted by Messenger View Post
    All the value winners at Melton yesterday made me look a little closer
    Only one odds on fav for the 8 race program (which lost)
    Maybe Restricted class meetings produce more even fields.
    Of course it could be a one off and I must admit to not paying Restricted meetings enough attention to really know

    http://www.harness.org.au/meeting-re...X161115&ms=vic

    Interesting figures released in today's From the CEO's desk @ HRV.

    "For 145 races up to 16 November 2014 there were 54% which had odds on favourites. For the same period in 2015 that figure has reduced to 36%."

    http://www.hrv.org.au/general/from-the-ceos-desk/

    Only halfway through the PBD trial of course, but these are the results so far.

  7. #117
    Member Filly codywinnell will become famous soon enough
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    Thought this excerpt from a piece I'm writing for Leader Newspapers might be of interest.

    Friday night at Tabcorp Park Melton proved the $5 each-way punter is very much looked after in the trots with winners at odds of $36.10, $65.10, $6.10, $11.20 and $33.10.

    If you’d played field into field in Races 1 and 2 – both open races on paper – into One Yankee Hall ($1.20) – considered by most to be night’s “moral” – into Hellovaway ($4.40) and Mistressofillusion ($2.80) – the clear second favourites in Race 4 – in a $50 flexi early quaddie, you would walked away with almost $9000 in your pocket.

    The EQ paid $38,431.80 overall and the $50 ticket would have had you on for 22.72 per cent of the dividend.

    But of course, how easy is everything in hindsight!?

  8. #118
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    You have to seize the opportunity to write such pieces Cody - I reckon it has been a long time since Melton had three winners over $30 and no doubt why it got a mention in the Melton Review thread. I think the reduction in the number of odds on favourites might be worth publicising too
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

  9. #119
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    It was hard to work out where the fave was until they turned for home Wayne as the call was oh so forgettable but Almost El Eagle's finishing burst was memorable for the 2nd time in 8 days - the new Cups king
    Last edited by Messenger; 11-24-2015 at 01:17 AM.
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

  10. #120
    Member Filly codywinnell will become famous soon enough
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    Quote Originally Posted by Messenger View Post
    You have to seize the opportunity to write such pieces Cody - I reckon it has been a long time since Melton had three winners over $30 and no doubt why it got a mention in the Melton Review thread. I think the reduction in the number of odds on favourites might be worth publicising too
    Quick look at the last 3 Melton meetings, Kev, and some of the prices of the winners.

    Monday 17th
    41.40
    15.60
    27.80
    8.20

    Friday 13th
    29.90
    11.80
    8.20

    November 6
    47.60
    14.10

    Fair few long-shots among that lot. You don't want every single race to be won by a long-shot I wouldn't think. Doesn't need to become a lottery! But it's good to see the $5 ew punter getting their chance every time there's a meeting.

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