Odds On Pops and Other Effects on Market Share

[arlington]

This has been a pet peeve of mine for a few years now.
The current Handicapping System is a disaster.
TAB Turnover is the life blood of all codes of racing.

Most punters get their information straight from the TAB screens or from newspapers.
A lot of my mates refuse to bet on Harness Racing in that they don't see backing Odds On pops or betting against them as viable propositions.
Throw in the prospect of getting trapped behind runners on tracks without Sprint Lanes or caught in the pack and you can see why they'll throw the odd $5 on a dog race instead.

I did a little research using the RESULTS sections of HARNESS.Org and THEDOGS.com and looked at the SP for TAB race meetings over the last few days.
There were 37 Harness Racing meetings in the last 7 days.
There were 27 Dog meetings over the last 4 days.
HARNESS RACING
37 meetings 289 races 126 Odds On Faves (44%) of which 72 won (57%)
DOG RACING
27 Meetings 265 races 71 Odds On Faves (27%) of which 43 won (61%)

18 of the 37 Harness racing meetings had more than half the program with Odds On faves.
4 of the 27 Dog meetings had more than half the program with Odds On Faves.

13 /37 harness meetings had 2 or less odds on pops at the meeting...35%.
15/27 dog meetings had 2 or less odds on pops at the meeting....56%.

My experience is that the Pre-Post odds quoted in the morning newspapers tend to be even more conservative than the eventual Staring Prices.
The perception out there is that there are too many poor value betting races at the Trots.

Any ideas on addressing the situation?

That's something I commented on in a similar thread a while ago. The conservative prices quoted in the papers and the ultra conservative opening quotes. For some reason we're getting a rough deal with the betting agency assessors. I used to go to the greyhounds now and then, years ago with a fairly successful trainer/punter. I wasn't that interested in punting but his rule was if it's over 4/1 forget about it. Seemed like a lot of odds on pops won. Not sure if they weighed the dogs then...the old bowl of milk to stop them. Would be interesting if the stats on short priced dogs changed once the greyhounds got fair dinkum on drugs. Eg, even as recent as G Bate being outed. Food for thought considering cobalt/Harness penalties as I did hear one corporate on RSN radio answering a similar risk factor for them (whether real or not's another thing) on thoroughbreds re closing of winning betting accounts. The cheat risk for them.

[Messenger]

My experience is that the Pre-Post odds quoted in the morning newspapers tend to be even more conservative than the eventual Staring Prices.
The perception out there is that there are too many poor value betting races at the Trots.

Any ideas on addressing the situation?

Your 'odds on' harness figures concur with my own survey a while back Mick (posted on here)
Maybe promote the newspaper odds as ratings and therefore punters can then consider whether the odds on offer are overs or unders. (There is of course also the question of how relevant the papers are nowadays).
The other approach that I think I suggested after doing my survey is to have a 'Shop for Value' campaign. Spell it out that nearly half the odds on pops lose (so if you bet on them all you WILL lose) so bet against them for great value

[Danno]

Staggered mobile

Best tongue in cheek I've seen on here for a while, Brenno you know I will never stop banging that drum!

[waggamick]

Best tongue in cheek I've seen on here for a while, Brenno you know I will never stop banging that drum!

Oh yeah...the STAGGERED MOBILE.
Its 50 years since Harness Racing employed new technology on the track...first use of the Mobile Start was 21st. May 1965.
Okay..new carts, wheel shields,etc...low tech.
Look at Singapore Racing and their use of TRAKUS....the Victorian Thouroughbred industry is looking at introducing it this year as well.
http://www.turfclub.com.sg/Racing/An...akusChart.aspx

It would take a little thinking and some experimentation but I propose that horses be handicapped in 10 metre increments (a la the traditional Standing Start) and that through the use of TRAKUS (or a like GPS system) and transponders attached to each horse's headgear (or cart) that the starter can monitor the handicap position of each starter(with a sensible margin of error) as each driver using a red light/green light from the transponder keeps his/her horse at the appropriate handicap behind the moving Mobile.
The best of both worlds.
A broader handicapping base with the consistency of the Mobile Start.
Better handicapped races with less Odds On chances.
I've relayed the above thoughts to Harness Racing authorities and pundits but am yet to get a reply.
50 years is long enough between the empl;oyment of one technical ionnovation and another.

[brent_L]

Like your thinking Mick but wouldn't it be simpler to have a single file mobile start? At least that way there wouldn't be horses starting in pockets that they can't manouvre out of.

[Toohard]

Might have to go to Noel for this one, was there a proto type built to suit Moonee Valley? Might be down in the bowels of Bendigo. Not sure if it was fixed angled arms but, anyway, the outside horses were set back.

Reckon it was used at Moonee Valley for a while. Outside horse was about a length back from pole marker.

[Adaptor]

One of the current Victorian mobiles ( the Hygain one I think) has the cabin and arms mounted on a turntable.
It was at Bendigo the other day having the countdown clock fixed so I was able to have the setup explained to me.
It has the capacity to have the arms at an angle. I think the Meadowlands mobile does the same.
In theory the outside horse is approx 2 metres in front of the pole horse, with the rest staggered accordingly.
It works well with all off the front...but ours have trailers as well.
Not sure when they used this last for a staggered start.
Does anyone know?

[Njcstables]

Reckon it was used at Moonee Valley for a while. Outside horse was about a length back from pole marker.

Yeah your right Paul it was definitely used a m valley for a short time but the mobile was angled so the outside horses were about a length in front of inside. It was supposed to encourage horses out wide to go forward and have a crack at the lead. Not sure why it didn't last but I don't think the trainers and drivers took to it too well.

[arlington]

One of the current Victorian mobiles ( the Hygain one I think) has the cabin and arms mounted on a turntable.
It was at Bendigo the other day having the countdown clock fixed so I was able to have the setup explained to me.
It has the capacity to have the arms at an angle. I think the Meadowlands mobile does the same.
In theory the outside horse is approx 2 metres in front of the pole horse, with the rest staggered accordingly.
It works well with all off the front...but ours have trailers as well.
Not sure when they used this last for a staggered start.
Does anyone know?

Thanks for that Noel, you're a wealth of information. Did they interview you for the role of the new Indiana Jones?
You've refreshed my memory a bit, was developed for the mile(?) races to even out the start. Field size limited to all off the front. As to when last used, not sure. Don't think it was still used before harness racing left the Valley.

[waggamick]

Like your thinking Mick but wouldn't it be simpler to have a single file mobile start? At least that way there wouldn't be horses starting in pockets that they can't manouvre out of.

If I understand the idea of single file as one long line then without some form of electronic monitoring you would end up with limitations on the handicap spread and a fanning out process after the start that would see banks of horses going into first turns..particularly on smaller tracks.