Odds On Pops and Other Effects on Market Share

[aussiebreno]

6 winners < $1.60 at GP tonight cannot be good for their turnover either

Damn. I thought to myself Thurs night you would post about the Penrith meeting aand when I seen you post here I was certain.
G Hall did get one winner at $20 and even tipped his $4 shot to roll his odds on fave in one race.

[Messenger]

LOL me posting about anything out of Vic should be double digit odds Brenno. So what do you think - 6/9 odds on at Penrith, good for turnover?

[Messenger]

Surely the reason we have so many super short odds on pops has got to be people getting caught out betting into the TAB pool. Nobody in their right mind backs Lovelist anywhere near the $1.10 it started tonight

[the_racing_wiz]

Clearly the rebate punters are the reason for so many $1.04 - $1.10 shots. They are just loading up to get 4-10% of their stake and then the rebate provides the extra juice.

[codywinnell]

Jason Bonnington has penned an article in Harness Racer (due out 1 June) re short-priced favourites.

Quick stat, if you'd had $10 on the nose on all of them over past 12 months I understand you'd be about $1500 down. Backing them straight out probably not the best way to play them. Bonners knows his stuff and once the article is published in Harness Racer I'll publish it online and link up to it via this thread.

[Messenger]

My odds on survey (see post 34) clearly suggested that backing all odds on faves had to be a losing proposition

[codywinnell]

My odds on survey (see post 34) clearly suggested that backing all odds on faves had to be a losing proposition

The stats I've seen certainly confirm such an assertion.

At the same time I've never known any respected punter who simply backs horses that are odds-on because they're odds-on, so it's no great surprise to me that one would do their dough playing such a foolish system...

[Messenger]

From Bendigo last night. I want you to match the following horses records to the odds that they started

37-10-4-8 _________ 27-0-3-3

$29.90 ___________ $1.20

Thinking time music





The order for matching records to odds is: leave them exactly as they are

Yeah, I know you all got it right because it had to be a trick question and I was probably being a bit tricky picking horses from 2 different races

The horses were

R8 winner No Tomorrow and R9 winner Dawson Street

and yes I know NZ import Oh Jonny B Good caused No Tomorrow to be those odds but how does Dawson Street justify his odds? Probably simply barrier 1 in that field and he DID win

http://www.harness.org.au/meeting-re...N060615&ms=vic

[Messenger]

17 races in Victoria today.
We had 10 races with the Fav ≤ $1.70

[Messenger]

A meeting with a difference tonight at Terang. There was only one favourite that won and there was only one odds on favourite for the night and he was not the winner

http://www.harness.org.au/meeting-re...E230615&ms=vic

A great night for Michael Bellman - drove 3 winners and trained another