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Thread: Odds On Pops and Other Effects on Market Share

  1. #11
    Senior Member Stallion Danno is a jewel in the rough
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    Quote Originally Posted by Messenger View Post
    Thanks Brent. I hope Danno read that

    Trying to be scientific about this - I am wondering whether there could be a correlation with what water catchment area the punters come from
    Yes Kev, I read that, my scientific explanation is in the post above.....pretty hard to argue with hey?

  2. #12
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Shayne Cramp had 4 winners at Mildura today AND YET had 3 odds on pops beaten in other races
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

  3. #13
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    May have the answer to Odds On betting after Melton tonight - stick to the trotters. 3 out of 3 trots races won by Odds On pops. 5/6 Odds On pops got up on the night. Vic tally for June now stands at 19 odds on pops winning, 18 odds on pops losing.
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

  4. #14
    aussiebreno
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    Quote Originally Posted by Messenger View Post
    May have the answer to Odds On betting after Melton tonight - stick to the trotters. 3 out of 3 trots races won by Odds On pops. 5/6 Odds On pops got up on the night. Vic tally for June now stands at 19 odds on pops winning, 18 odds on pops losing.
    Wait till you back an odds on trotter and it gallops!

  5. #15
    Super Moderator Stallion Richard prior will become famous soon enough Richard prior's Avatar
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    From a personal point of view, I avoid the odds on pops and the trotters in particular for this very reason Breno. If I do have a punt in a race with a shorty, It's usually an exotic if I like another at decent odds to fill a place or a Quinella, Exacta or Trifecta.

  6. #16
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Thanks Adam, impressive stuff - with that % of odds on winners it would not seem profitable to back all odds on horses.
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

  7. #17
    Senior Member 4YO HaroldParker will become famous soon enough
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    Heavily supported "Odds On" Favourites at Gloucester Park on a Friday night = a near perfect strike rate and when you have Kim Prentice on the second elect drawn the pole = 100% : )

    I love the racing @ Gloucester Park but when you get a Cheerleader like Wes Cameron pointing out the obvious before races you know something is on the nose.

    It's Gloucester Park, if a "Live" chance draws the pole the lead is not relinquished. When a horse drawn outside what appears to be the likely leader (that likely leader often opens equal Fav or marginally longer) is backed as if unbeatable, as Wes says "the money tells me that this horse will be finding the front". The fact is, unless these horses are "guaranteed" the front, you couldn't substantiate the volume of support for them.

    Friday night, Soho Highroller in the 5th, the tote SP was $1.60. TAB fixed, Betfair and the corporates had it much shorter.

    The two big goes on Friday night however were My Hard Copy and Selkie. Both opened marginally in the black and by post time were $1.25 across the board. A week earlier, My Hard Copy drawn the pole, gifted the lead the Slick Chapel, there was an avalanche of support for the latter. On Friday night, My Hard Copy was drawn outside a stablemate that opened a close second elect and who was expected to hold up, well until the support for My Hard Copy said otherwise. Less said about Selkie's race the better, where it didn't go to plan for a furlong or so before the Punters Best Friend KP worked his magic.

    Let's just say, Friday night would of been a good night for Crown Perth. I have a buy rating on the stock, CWN for the mugs at home : )

  8. #18
    Senior Member 4YO HaroldParker will become famous soon enough
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    It's already very difficult to get on. If you only handicap Harness Racing like myself, the corporates will close your account ASAP and unfortunately even the TAB is becoming very restrictive.

    I know a couple of guys who work for corporate bookmakers. It won't be long until it's nearly impossible to get a decent bet on Harness Racing. Bookmakers (see the above examples) have little confidence in the policing of the sport. I know I bang on about it all time but the Stewards are doing an awful job. It's too difficult for them and they need to get form experts / someone with "real" punting knowledge on board to clean up the obvious, which is currently being ignored.

    The ramifications re betting turnover not passing through to the industry is massive and peeps need to get their head out of the sand.

    If you want to see what could become of the industry take a good look at racing in the UK and magnify that tenfold for Harness Racing here.

  9. #19
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    I have never followed WA but you made me take a look.
    We have an 800m track with no sprint lane
    9/10 winners were the leader
    KP twice leads from 1 easily but hands up the lead to the Odds On Fav both times
    Runs second both times
    Hmm.
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

  10. #20
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    2/2 odds on pops beaten at Hamilton today and it took until the last for a fave to get up
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

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