Odds On Pops and Other Effects on Market Share

[waggamick]

Brendan
I'm used to Forums where the only name showing is your USERNAME and on here they display your real name...just being careful for remote litigation reasons.
Thanks for the research which raises an interesting point...how big is the gap, ability wise, between the 3YO's at Redcliffe and the CO population in South Eastern Queensland?
Might be an argument for abandoning the category of 3YO's altogether and let them race in the general population...might make for more competitive racing all up and begs the question of how do owners stay in the game when a full field of horses has only 1 win in 250 starts...surely that's an indictment on the handicapping methods when those horses have had so many runs between them and have racked up only one win.
Re the Stewards Report...I would like to see Stewards at least comment on the fact that they noticed that a poorly performed horse that has started at cricket score odds and been belted start after start comes out in its next race (admittedly no hopers) and starts a 2 to 1 favourite. Your explanation is excellent but just for the sake of transparency, good governance and establishing trust (in a sport that suffers from a poor image...my mates still call it the red hots and a bloke I was talking to at the dogs the other night was telling his mate why the bookie wouldn't get to the dogs until the 3rd race and he told them that he was still at the 'Cheats on Seats).

[the_racing_wiz]

My observation is that WA has always had a different racing style..not sure why.
On the relatively small Gloucester Park track..compared to newer tracks elsewhere..WA drivers have always seemed to be happy getting out into a third line as far back as entering the home straight with a lap to go.
Often makes the otherwise prized one out one back position a trap.
Seems to make for competitive racing with the lead all the way hotpot (unless they are an out and out champion) less an occurrence than in many Eastern State venues.

The reason for that is the ease out rule is interpreted differently here to other states. Once they get to the ease out pole in the back straight here, they just come out under you so you have to get going early to get around or you risk being put 4/5 wide up the back. If the bloke inside you has an advantage he can ease you out and you are obliged to move with the shift.

I think you will find there are just as many LAW hotpots here as anywhere. Slight diff being that thankfully there is no sprint lane, so they dont just hand over carte blanche.

[Messenger]

Sure he won but was Vee Rock entitled to be $1.10 in that field
Some people risk so much to gain so little

http://www.harness.org.au/meeting-re...ic#MLC25021502

[Messenger]

Bendigo tonight.
7/8 faves winning sounds good but is it when 5 of them were < $1.50
7/8 leaders also won - another reason to dislike mile racing

[waggamick]

And race callers inevitably say that "the punters are doing well tonight" when the favourites win 7 out of 8 races but with so many of them odds on it isn't the average TAB punter..they aren't going to throw their $10 on a $1.40 shot.....it may be bigger punters and/or corporates laying off but five favourites under $1.50 isn't going to grow betting on the sport from the casual and opportunistic punter realm.

[Messenger]

Will Beautide's odds hurt the Inter Final betting?

[Messenger]

We need to race more often at Ararat - just look at the price of the winners (only Melita Bromac ruined things )

$22, $7, $5, $5, ($1), $19, $19, $5

http://www.harness.org.au/meeting-re...R030315&ms=vic

[Messenger]

6/8 faves got up at Charlton today
but 5/6 < $1.50 Just like Bendigo (see post 84)
It really could be time for me to do more Odds On research as far more than 50% seem to be winning of late. You would want that to be the case but last time I did the survey it was not so.
The problem however is the number of odds on pops and how this affects turnover

[Richard prior]

Cranbourne last night Kev, 3 Fav's saluted but only 1 Odds on Pop amongst these from 9 races.

[Mister JayKO]

We need to race more often at Ararat - just look at the price of the winners (only Melita Bromac ruined things )

$22, $7, $5, $5, ($1), $19, $19, $5

http://www.harness.org.au/meeting-re...R030315&ms=vic

I thought Little Lyn and Johnny Redcoat where both good things, the form assessment by Blake Redden was poor and I'm being nice. You don't expect the form experts to get it right all the time, but Little Lyn was always going to lead and around Ararat (one of the last of the old school tracks) that's who you wanted to be on. Didn't even rate a mention in the discussion.