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Thread: What do you look for?

  1. #1
    Junior Member Yearling waggamick will become famous soon enough
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    mick mundy
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    What do you look for?

    I realise that this thread will probably be moved..to the Handicapping and Wagering category which I note last had a No Reply 1 post thread 8 moths ago and the thread before that was in November 2013. Maybe a case of out of sight out of mind.

    Anyway....
    What do you look for when you are doing the form? And in what order?
    I'll put my batting order in and I'd be interested to hear any ideas from what is obviously an experienced and sagacious crew here on Harnesslink.

    Using Harness.org
    OVERVIEW
    1.Class of Race
    2.Conditions...Mobile/Stand/Class Mix
    3.Distance
    4.Trainers..with a personal bias.
    5.Drivers..with a personal bias.
    6.Class spread in the Field.
    INDIVIDUAL HORSE
    1.Draw...is there a Sprint Lane and how well do the horses off the Front begin?
    2.Class Rating..and compared to other runners.
    3.Trainer
    4.Driver
    5.Long Term Form.....s822133725232837s1285377 - s22333
    6. Career Stats...Career: 36-3-8-10
    7. Mobile or Standing Start Stats.......Mobile: 36-3-8-10
    8. Win/Place %.......Win: 8% Place: 58%
    9. Quick scan of last 5 finishing positions..6-8, etc.
    10 Tracks they ran at....Metro/Provincial/Country
    11.Dates of runs looking for Spells.
    12.Odds in last 5 starts with Class and Barrier Draw in mind.
    13. Beaten Margins.
    14. In Running Comments: 4 wide early, 3 wide middle with trail, 1 out 2 back at bell, 3 wide late with trail.
    15. Splits and MR: 2:00.0, 56.9 (31.5, 31.0, 29.0, 27.9)

    One piece of form that is sadly missing is betting fluctuations..Fixed Odds for the Home State would be best.
    Something more than 'gate speed' would help in judging possible race position from the start.


    So what am I looking for?
    The ideal selection would be a horse that has:
    A good draw...
    A 'successful' trainer..
    A 'successful' driver...
    Good long term form...
    Reasonable win/place %
    Good runs in last few starts taking into consideration:
    where they raced...City or the bush?
    the class they were in
    the Barrier position they started from and;
    the luck they had in running...with reference to Quarters and Halves.
    Giving more weight to good runs from bad situations than good runs from ideal situations and noting poor runs at short prices without excuses.
    I then rank them (in my head) and look at the prices on offer.
    I usually seem to be pretty close to market order then its a matter of looking for value.
    Odds On look on or I might stand them out in an Exotic.

    Have I missed anything?
    What do you blokes look for?
    Aside from betting fluctuations, and a better description of gate speed are there any other stats that you wished were in the Harness.org Form Guide?

  2. #2
    Senior Member 4YO brent_L will become famous soon enough
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    Brent Lambert
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    VALUE is clearly the most important imo
    Speedmap
    Recent form
    & then a mate who's trustworthy enough to open an acc with the corps

  3. #3
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    A long, long time ago
    Throw in factors like
    - the horse has real ability eg has been noted in your black book at some stage (somewhat similar to what you describe as class rating)
    - the horse has shown a liking for this track (& draw)

    but pretty much everything you have said Mick
    with the most important being viewed, on video or live, readiness to win against this class of opposition (with a fair return on risk)
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

  4. #4
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year arlington will become famous soon enough
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    Mick, if you don't mind me asking, what are 'successful' trainers and drivers?

  5. #5
    Super Moderator Stallion Richard prior will become famous soon enough Richard prior's Avatar
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    Combination of a Successful Trainer and Driver can make the Odds very skinny, For EG: Emma Stewart/Gavin Lang, G.Hall Snr/Junior etc. I like to include a short priced Favourite in the Exotic's if i like a couple of other horses but I don't particully stand them out, Especially in small fields as the pace can be muddling. I have a glance at the Trainer and Driver but it all about the Ability of the horse in question, There are plenty of drivers more than capable of do the job and Trainers with the right horse also. As Kev pointed out, Your Blackbook is a real important tool, If you see a horse put in a good effort, Keeping your eye out for its next run as a lot of times if a horse is outside the placings and has put in a good effort previously, It can be overlooked and there's a distinct possibility that you might get decent odds in its next run. Also like the young horses and looking at trial form is very important, If a horse has had 2 or 3 trials before it goes to the track, Look for gradual improvements in their times, This can give you a real insight to the horses ability.
    Last edited by Richard prior; 02-13-2015 at 10:26 AM.

  6. #6
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year arlington will become famous soon enough
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    I like Richard's inclusion of trial form. As well as older horses returning to campaign for the big events, keeping an eye on the youngsters is valuable. Did Richard pass on his assessment of a couple of trialled but unraced 2yo's in both the Shepparton 2yo Classics????

  7. #7
    Junior Member Yearling waggamick will become famous soon enough
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    One aspect I do look for is a horse that has that has started from outside Front Row Draws and Second Row draws at longer prices and ran accordingly and is drawn in the 2,3 or 4 for today's race. Usually means a rise in class but I have had some good results from such a system..I'm a sucker for systems!
    I also look at horses recently purchased from NZ..they might not win first up but it doesn't take them long.
    I often find a goodun' where a top free lance driver travels for a lone drive...did well with a McElhinney single drive at Canberra a while back.
    Successful trainers are those in the top echelon as it seems to be the case that the top trainers attract clients who supply them with the best bred young horses and no expense is spared as far as veterinary care, feed and facilities as well as securing top drivers for their horses.
    As far as successful drivers are concerned, there are those that are attached to top trainers(by family relationships) and those that are employed by the trainers AND there are the free lance drivers that do well.
    Of course the penalty you pay with following these Trainers and Drivers is what I call the Tommy Smith/George Moore effect where you get reduced odds the minute punters saw their names against an entrant.
    Bit like Waller and Waterhouse these days. Although you do get the odd amazing result..using the gallops again but William Pike(WA Premiership leading rider) rode 5 winners a couple of Saturdays ago in WA and then came out on the Wednesday(I think it was) and rode a $30 winner.

    Some of my favoured trainers and drivers:
    WA Trainers
    G Hall Senior..snagged a really nice priced winner during the week.
    Skye Bond
    WA Drivers
    G Hall Junior
    Chris Voak
    VICTORIA Trainers
    Gaths
    Lilley
    Victoria Drivers
    Anthony Butt..killing it at the moment and gets up on some nice priced horses.
    Nathan Jack..particularly if the horse has been backed.
    QLD
    Dixon
    NSW
    McCathys

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