Could G Hall harm WA racing

[Chariots]

My observation is that it is a very viable business option for the Halls themselves but not sure about the wider owner base.

Those involved with ITMQ have reinvested heavily into other horses and many have been unsuccessful.

Al long as owners are prepared to keep tipping in the business model will survive for the Halls and the Bonds but I am not sure I would want to be investing heavily in the project.

[Messenger]

Glen, thanks for the model summary of G Hall, you are spot on.
Back to my original post, given this success and the amount of winners/prizemoney going to one stable, could this work against others coming into the training industry in WA as they feel they could not make a living from it....the top 3 trainers take out 67%.
Does anyone have stats on trainer numbers in WA?
Do the strong get stronger and the industry weaker.

From HRA Annual On-Line
The number of Registered trainers in WA peaked at 1426 in 83-84
and has been pretty much on a steady decline since
in 07-08 it was 704
in 13-14 it was 587

Total WA sires peaked at 209 in 78-79 with total foals being 1377
in 13-14 there were 21 sires and foal numbers in the 400's
(there has of course been a rise in imported semen foals this millennium but it peaked at 145 in 09-10)

Horses named has fallen from a peak of 1158 to 411 last season

The blame cannot really be NZ as 3 times NZ imports topped 100 last millennium
and for the last 7 seasons has remained constant between 103 - 134



WA is not alone in these dwindling numbers. Here is Vic for comparison

The number of Registered Trainers in Vic peaked at 2374 in 80-81
and has steadily declined to 1248 last season


Total Vic sires peaked at 548 in 78-79 with total foals over 4500
and was down to 79 last season with foals below 2000
Vic Imported semen foals peaked at 493 in 10-11

Horses named has fallen from a peak of 3672 to 1418

NZ imports have fallen away dramatically in Vic
It was only 131 last season which is less than it was in 87-88
after peaking at 327 in 10-11

http://www.harness.org.au/hra/annual...regn_state.pdf

[p plater]

Kevin thanks for your info.
Looking at WA figures, trainers have declined by around 17% in 8 years.
It would appear that 25% of the racing stock are from NZ

[hugdon]

Hi Kev
Thanks for the time taken to get these stats. Bailey if the top 3 trainers have accounted for 67% of races and winnings this season, and the season has a bit left to go, it could be feasible that the top 3 trainers could win considerably more of the remaining stake money making the pickings for the other 584 trainers somewhat slim. It therefore behoves me to ask do other states have such a dominant trainer(s). If so does anyone think those trainers could harm the industry in their respective states? Something to mull over!

[Messenger]

Hi Kev
Thanks for the time taken to get these stats. Bailey if the top 3 trainers have accounted for 67% of races and winnings this season, and the season has a bit left to go, it could be feasible that the top 3 trainers could win considerably more of the remaining stake money making the pickings for the other 584 trainers somewhat slim. It therefore behoves me to ask do other states have such a dominant trainer(s). If so does anyone think those trainers could harm the industry in their respective states? Something to mull over!

There are of course some faults in Bailey's opening post - it is only based on the Top 10 figures and what % GH has won out of the total for the Top 10 - which he clearly states BUT there are surely a lot more races won by trainers outside the top 10 on the premiership total. G Hall may have won far less than 40% of all metro races AND remember Bailey is only talking about METRO races. The only way to know what % he has won is to know how many Metro races have been raced in WA this season - this is something I do not know

I can illustrate how this may be distorting the figures using Vic figures as I keep a Vic db and know how many Metro races there have been in Vic (that includes Country Cups of 15k)
Using only the Top 10 figures which is all Bailey had at his fingertips
You would think that Emma Stewart has won 25% of Vic Metro races as she has won 25 and the rest of the top 10 have only won 75 making a total of 100
http://www.harness.org.au/vic-premierships.cfm
But I know that there have actually been 218 Metro races so she has won more like 11%

This link allows you to click on each state to see their Top 10
http://www.harness.org.au/content.cfm?id=60

This link allows you to see the whole countries Trainers are faring
http://www.harness.org.au/hra/annual...s-all-1415.pdf

[hugdon]

Hey Kev
Thanks again (I think)

[p plater]

Kevin and Jim,
Kevin is totally correct in that the figures I used were the published Metro top 10 results for WA.
I must say, I am astounded that Kevin's Data Base on Victoria identifies 218 metro races against the 100 in the top 10 but I have no doubt his figures would be correct.
That said and for comparison using the Metro 10 ten stats for NSW, Vic and Qld (only Metro recorded)
NSW
S. Tritton 17.2% winners and 18% prizemoney
Top 3 trainers 45.9% winners and 40.1% prizemoney

Vic.
E Stewart 25% winners and 18.7% prizemoney
Top 3 trainers 56.5% winners and 43.5% prizemoney

Qld
G Dixon 28.1% winners and 29.3% prizemoney
Top 3 trainers 62.5% winners and 61.5% prizemoney

As you can see NSW and Vic the strongest eastern States top out at 43.5% for the top 3 trainers using these figures.

[Richard prior]

Hey Teecee, Would love to know M.Purdon's Allstars stable stats in NZ??

[Messenger]

Kevin and Jim,
Kevin is totally correct in that the figures I used were the published Metro top 10 results for WA.
I must say, I am astounded that Kevin's Data Base on Victoria identifies 218 metro races against the 100 in the top 10 but I have no doubt his figures would be correct.
That said and for comparison using the Metro 10 ten stats for NSW, Vic and Qld (only Metro recorded)
NSW
S. Tritton 17.2% winners and 18% prizemoney
Top 3 trainers 45.9% winners and 40.1% prizemoney

Vic.
E Stewart 25% winners and 18.7% prizemoney
Top 3 trainers 56.5% winners and 43.5% prizemoney

Qld
G Dixon 28.1% winners and 29.3% prizemoney
Top 3 trainers 62.5% winners and 61.5% prizemoney

As you can see NSW and Vic the strongest eastern States top out at 43.5% for the top 3 trainers using these figures.

If HRA's table was as friendly as HRNZ I would not need to keep a Vic db as we would be able to click on the heading State and all the trainers would be sorted by state
I campaigned hard to get the full table we have now but it would be so much better if we could sort it - because it is password protected we cannot convert it to Excel to sort ourselves either
I will contact HRA and see what we can do

ps 218 so far this season Bailey, 389 for the whole of last year

[teecee]

Hey Teecee, Would love to know M.Purdon's Allstars stable stats in NZ??

http://infohorse.hrnz.co.nz/datahr/p...ips/tpship.htm