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Thread: Game gradually dying in the Hunter Valley

  1. #1
    Senior Member Stallion Danno is a jewel in the rough
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    Game gradually dying in the Hunter Valley

    I know everyone on this forum is concerned primarily about what is happening in their own backyard which is fair enough.


    Here in the Hunter Valley we have, for quite some time had a super trainer and driver combination in our midst which is, in my humble opinion, gradually and unwittingly killing the game in our area.


    Each week there are basically 1.5 meetings in the Hunter and one stable is taking approximately 50% of the winners purses home.


    When you consider that the number of trainers\stables in the area and the number of horses in those yards and the number of owners paying up for those horses and that they are now effectively sharing 50% of the spoils when they had previously contested 100% of that pie, it's not easy to see why we are struggling to fill fields.


    I know some exceptionally intelligent person is going to say something like " if you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen" but hey EIP, it's not quite that simple!!


    We are seeing horses that improve virtually overnight for this super trainer and driver combination not just occasionally, but VERY frequently and I'm not into bagging people, that's not what this post is about, I am genuinely concerned about the future of the game if this one stable dominance continues...how long does it take before so many people get sick of perceived reductions of potential purses that they decide to give the game away and go racing ferrets??


    I believe HRNSW is aware the situation here is imperfect, I believe they have made attempts to correct it, I also believe that so far, they have failed..........damned if I know what the answer is, but as a trainer/driver/owner/breeder/ local harness committee man
    who has been involved in this silly game we play for over 45 years....I've just about had a gutful, and please don't take this as "sour grapes"..... in my time I've seen the swings and roundabouts of this game many, many times.
    Last edited by Danno; 06-13-2015 at 04:16 AM.

  2. #2
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    I am almost exclusively a Vic follower Dan but I guess we are talking about the Tritton stable.
    Looking at the trainers on the National Top 20 I see that his strike rate is about 25% but no doubt his success could be much more in the Newcastle area and much lower elsewhere - like the Cramps was in Vic (no inference intended)

    In the Top 10, along with Tritton, Hall and Bond in WA are striking at 25% while Stewart in Vic is striking at 35%. You would think with two of them in WA it must not be leaving much to the others.
    Vic is a much smaller state and with harness virtually only in the Western/Central half, Stewart like any other Vic trainer, tends to spread herself around.

    There are a few in the bottom half of the Top 20 that are striking at 30% but they only have half as many winners as the big boys and girls for they have had far fewer starters (but seasons most would die for)
    Looking at the Top 8 it is amazing how big these stables are for apart from Stewart, they have all had over 600 starters and as many as 1321 !!!

    http://www.harness.org.au/ausbreed/r...470?d=13062015

    It is interesting to note that QLD has 4 trainers in the Top 10, NSW 3, WA 2 and VIC 1
    For the Top 20 we have NSW 7, VIC 5, QLD 4, WA 3, SA 1

    I am not sure what we can draw from this simple analysis but it would seem to me that the spread is a little better in VIC

    Edit: I just did a quick look at April, May, June at Newcastle
    The Tritton stable has won 5/8, 4/8, 2/8, 4/8, 2/9, 0/7, 0/7, 2/8, 4/6, 5/7, 0/7, 2/8, 1/8
    The zeros were when they had no starters
    Last edited by Messenger; 06-13-2015 at 02:23 PM.
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

  3. #3
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year Amlin will become famous soon enough Amlin's Avatar
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    I have noticed this as well Dan - I guess every winning run comes to an end eventually but it's whether the industry can hold on in the meantime.


    Perhaps one of the disadvantages of all runners starting off the front on a big circuit - at least if it was 7 off the front with 4 trailers on a half-mile track they might draw the second row!

  4. #4
    Junior Member Foal Shane tritton will become famous soon enough
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    Hi all ... The hunter valley is my home and the place I have supported my entire life .. I have a very simple question for this thread and would love a response ... I currently have 60 horses in work with 12 staff members , over 40 individual owners, obviously over the last few seasons we have won a considerable amount of races at Newcastle. I believe there are 80 odd meetings a year with an average of 8 races a meeting. 640 odd races a year.. I have won an average of 90 races a year which is only 14%. Hardly a domination .. But my question is considering I have 60 horses .. If this was 6 different trainers with 2 staff each and 8 odd owners in each stable ... Would anyone be complaining.. Can someone tell me why this is different as I don't have 1 owner most my horses are individual owners... So essentially the money is getting spread among plenty of different owners... Plenty of staff ,, plenty of participants .. So I would just like to know how would would the sport be better off if I split my horses amongst my 12 staff and 6 different trainers .. Does the hunter valley change ??

  5. #5
    Junior Member Yearling lasse will become famous soon enough
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    Statistics don't lie.Shane Tritton has won 27% of the races run at Newcastle this season.His statewide strike rate is 25% winners to runners.Lucky Emma Stewart lives in Victoria where her strike rate is 36%!Lift your game Shane!!

  6. #6
    Senior Member Stallion Danno is a jewel in the rough
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane tritton View Post
    Hi all ... The hunter valley is my home and the place I have supported my entire life .. I have a very simple question for this thread and would love a response ... I currently have 60 horses in work with 12 staff members , over 40 individual owners, obviously over the last few seasons we have won a considerable amount of races at Newcastle. I believe there are 80 odd meetings a year with an average of 8 races a meeting. 640 odd races a year.. I have won an average of 90 races a year which is only 14%. Hardly a domination .. But my question is considering I have 60 horses .. If this was 6 different trainers with 2 staff each and 8 odd owners in each stable ... Would anyone be complaining.. Can someone tell me why this is different as I don't have 1 owner most my horses are individual owners... So essentially the money is getting spread among plenty of different owners... Plenty of staff ,, plenty of participants .. So I would just like to know how would would the sport be better off if I split my horses amongst my 12 staff and 6 different trainers .. Does the hunter valley change ??



    G'day Shane,
    great to see you are now a contributing member of the forum, and equally good to see you have supported the Hunter Valley your entire life, god knows what we would do without you!


    Your "very simple question" seems to have a few facets to it, so if you can bear with me I'll try and address each facet in the order it appears in your post.


    I think the gist of Question 1 part (a)


    you have 60 horses in work and 12 staff....so winning....lets use Lasse's stats 27% of races is "hardly a domination" mate those stats tell me you are a super trainer!! don't lie mate you know that no-one else around here is getting anywhere near those figures and if I was you I'd be proud of that!!....and it IS a dominant performance! Geez don't sell yourself short here Shane!


    Question 1/2 part ( b) ? ( starts with, "but my question is") if we spread 60 horse over 6 different trainers.......forgive me Shane I know I'm dumb, but I just cannot see the relevance of that question to this post, so if you could point out what I have missed I'd be grateful.


    Now clearly the last line of your post is Question 3......"Does the Hunter Valley change?"....well clearly it does Shane, like everything in life we get change some is good and some not so good....the point of the post was to point out that the current situation in this area with one stable, albeit very large stable, is taking a perceived disproportionate slice of the action then that may have a negative effect on the prosperity of the game in this area.


    I'd love to see some evidence that my observations and thoughts are incorrect.


    Cheers,
    Dan

  7. #7
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    I know you have been a member without being a poster for some time Shane as is everyone's prerogative but it good to see you post - maybe you would prefer to be posting on a different topic but being such an important figure in the Hunter Valley it is appropriate that you weigh in here

    As Lasse's post points out, you are selling yourself short on what percentage of Newcastle races you win. 27% is nearly Double what you were thinking. I came up with the same figure as Lasse. Did you do the hard yards on that Lasse or did you find it somewhere? I am glad I did the hard yards because at the same time I looked at how many races Shane's horses competed in. Lasse's post gives the impression that Shane's peformance at Newcastle is similar to his statewide strike rate. (I know you did not actually say that Lasse)

    I discovered that Shane's horses only competed in 227 of the 426 races run at Newcastle so far this season so while winning 115 is 27% of all races Shane's fantastic placement has resulted in winning nearly 51% of the races they have contested!

    NB this is slightly different from strike rate but possibly more meaningful. Multi horses in a race in some ways makes strike rates based on runners (not races) a bit of a nonsense as only one of your runners can win so sometimes it is possible to be harming your strike rate even when you win LOL

    Although Shane's statewide strike rate is around 25% because it is so much higher at Newcastle (I would guess about 40%, I am not counting again for total runners!) that means for the rest of the state it is much much lower than 25% ( maybe 15%) therefore Newcastle (his home track mind you) is far more dominant than anywhere else
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

  8. #8
    Junior Member Yearling lasse will become famous soon enough
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    This thread is turning into a maths tutorial-right up your alley Shane!lol

  9. #9
    Member Yearling Rob Nalder will become famous soon enough
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    As to the 1st statement that the Hunter Valley is dying, well in my opinion the Hunter is just another part of our market that is in decline. But is it any different to other geographical areas of our sport.

    What we have today in NSW is that our two largest and most successful trainers are situated in Bathurst and the Hunter. Both of them have outstanding records that only adds to the continued success of both of them. Owners have always supported the best of the best, this is no different today or back some 35 years ago.

    Today we do not have Sydney based Trainers that dominate as per the years gone by. Is there a reason or are there reasons that has resulted in us ending up with what we have today.
    From an owners point of view I think the Sydney basin of Trainers have suffered to an extent due to the country supporting a raft of incentives undertaken by both NSWHRC and HRNSW. I should point out I suport them all as without them the Country Owners would suffer.
    Is it time to look at what can be done to help the Sydney based Trainers, I think so.

    You just have to look at the article in Trotguide this week to see that the Newcastle Club has gone from 13 Saturday nights to 25 Saturday nights to further help the area. This was undertaken by HRNSW in obviously reviewing what has been happening in this area. Let me say I do not know the ins and outs of this happening, what I do know is HRNSW would know exactly why they have gone this way.

    Whenever you strengthen one area the balancing act is to hold onto all other areas and regions.
    As I said, I don't know fully the reasons behind HRNSW allocating the extra Saturday nights, it could well be to split up the Trainers or make them decide on going to Menangle or stay at home.
    Without a doubt we all need extra funds in all levels of our industry and hopefully some major inisitives can be undertaken once we have the Promesses of TAX harmonisation handed over. My understanding this could happen within the next couple of weeks.
    One thing I do know is that what we have today in our two leading trainers both being Country based needs to be acknowledged as a super achievement as it just goes to show with hard work and professionalism you don't need to be based in the big smoke to be successful.
    All good stuff but let's stay positive and back our leaders by supporting there successes.

    Rob Nalder

  10. #10
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lasse View Post
    This thread is turning into a maths tutorial-right up your alley Shane!lol
    Lasse did you find a Newcastle premiership table somewhere or spreadsheet it like I did? The reason I ask is that although I only recorded Shane's, it seemed to me that a small number of trainers won a lot of Newcastle races and would like to see the premiership table (I am not going back and counting everybody's wins!)
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

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