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Thread: Odds On Favourites under the VIC tiered system 2016-17

  1. #71
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Kevin O'Donoghue
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    At Wang tonight, favourites:

    $1.40 $2.10 $1.50 $2.30 $1.50 $2.00 $1.20 $1.90 $1.50

    Only 2/9 successful
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  2. #72
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Terrible at Ballarat tonight:

    $1.90 $1.40 $1.40 $1.10 $1.20 $1.70 $1.10

    Three lost

    The first and last races were OK
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  3. #73
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    John Caldow drove three $1.40 pops at Shep today and they all lost

    http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...P150218&ms=vic
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  4. #74
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    The 3 shortest favourites at Shep today all beaten

    $1.30 $1.20 $1.20

    Mind-boggling

    http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...&fromstate=vic
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  5. #75
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    I had an interesting email from one of our posters about the long odds on favourites problem

    I think he correctly identified that often it is the star juveniles moving up to open company
    He suggested making the grading from 3yo to open company based on $ earnt. So the really good 3yos become C3 class when they turn 4 (or start racing in open company)

    If you are concerned about penalizing their owners too much let them stay as a C3 for 3 wins
    Instead of a meeting having a C0, C1 and C2 with $1.04 favs they’d all be pushed into C3 class and more likely be racing each other

    ???
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  6. #76
    Member Filly Bonnie will become famous soon enough
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    Wonderful to see 31 nominations for the Oaks Heats on Saturday night. Simple conditions : ' 3 year old fillies RBD ' . No discrimination against last start winners, no extra conditions , just 3 year old fillies racing each other ! We won't have to nominate 4 times before our filly gets a run this week due to lack of nominations ( and that includes C0 and C1 mixed sex races ) Maybe something that HRV could try more of .

  7. #77
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year arlington will become famous soon enough
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    They are encouraging numbers Anne.
    Is it as simple as that Anne or am I missing something? Are you suggesting if an open 3yo fillies race/s were programmed leading up to the Oaks they'd get full fields? I'll apologise for any ignorance as I don't have a 3yo filly. Might it turn out that a condition may still have to apply, in that, to contest an Oaks heat you have to run in one of these races? Hadn't looked at the Oaks noms but imagine there being quite a few 3C0/1's. I could see that even though 3C0's will nominate for the Oaks they mightn't nominate for an open 3yo?
    Not that I'm up in arms about it but, as an example, some were anti with Shez All Rock in a C1 recently. The open 3yo's would avoid that as long as the fields stood up with 3C0's nominating. PBD at least?

  8. #78
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Anne, I gather it has been hard for a 3yo filly to get a start of late and you would think that in the lead up to the Oaks programming should have made this simpler but I am not surprised the Oaks heats are popular as we all know that any owner with breeding aspirations can even spruik 'dam 5th in a Vic Oaks heat' on a future pedigree sheet

    Very strong Oaks heats this year Wayne - only 1 3C0 & 6 3C1's

    http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...&fromstate=vic
    Last edited by Messenger; 04-17-2018 at 02:15 PM.
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  9. #79
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Just looked at the form to see where they all had their last start

    10 - Interstate
    1 - 3C0
    8 - 3C0-1
    6 - C0
    3 - C1
    1 - C1-2
    1 - C2-3
    1 - not started for over 2mths
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  10. #80
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year arlington will become famous soon enough
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    Quote Originally Posted by Messenger View Post
    Just looked at the form to see where they all had their last start

    10 - Interstate
    1 - 3C0
    8 - 3C0-1
    6 - C0
    3 - C1
    1 - C1-2
    1 - C2-3
    1 - not started for over 2mths

    Am wondering how hard it was for interstaters to find prep races for the Oaks.
    The Ballarat Oaks trial didn't get up because of lack of noms? Albeit PBD/3C, $15000 not enough inducement? Seems strange. Being manual selection HRV didn't accept 3C0's...?

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