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Thread: Odds On Favourites under the VIC tiered system 2016-17

  1. #11
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    At tonight's 7 Kilmore meet there was not a single Odds On fav

    http://www.harness.org.au/meeting-re...I140916&ms=vic
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  2. #12
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year Toohard will become famous soon enough Toohard's Avatar
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    Race 2 at Ballarat last night one of the new $5 races. Horse went out odds on favourite at $1.90. Had 43 starts for 1 win (in 2014). Race won by $3.90 chance. With 2 outsiders running 2nd and 3rd.
    Easy in retrospect but the winner (although 'numerically' worse) would have appeared to have better form.

    The 2 other 5k races had a $2.60 fav won by a $7.80 chance and a $2.20 fav that won.

    Kilmore night before had 3 $5k races. $5.60 winner (fav started $3.00) $5.00 winner (fav started $2.40) $2.60 winner (fav started $2.50)

    Its only a small sample but these races throwing up some good price winners at moment and very few really short odds on runners.

  3. #13
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Yours is a selective sample Paul. Until the Kilmore no Odds On favs night we were seeing MORE odds on favs than last yr - see post 6.
    As far as value goes Odds On favs were never a problem as they presented the punter with value opportunities as whenever I did a survey of them, I found that half the time they were losing
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  4. #14
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    I do not know that Metro racing is really any different under tiered racing but I will post here.
    Not going to keep a db on NSW but noticed for the 24 races at Menangle so far this season they have only had 2 Odds On favs
    While for the 27 races run at Melton so far there have been 10 Odds On favs. Small sample of course but that is 8% compared to 37%
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  5. #15
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year Amlin will become famous soon enough Amlin's Avatar
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    Noms look to be on the improve. Good size fields at Echuca and strong entries for Cranboune Sat

  6. #16
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    Good to see 9 races at Echuca Kyle, after programs of 7, 6 & 7 for the first 3 meets of the week
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  7. #17
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    250 races down after Cranbourne tonight

    112 Odds On favs = 44.8%
    66 have won which is about 60% (40% have LOST!)

    Brent Lilley has had the most with 10 and 80% success
    Andy Gath is next with 9

    then All on 7
    Matty Craven (all but one successful)
    Emma Stewart
    David Aiken
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  8. #18
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year Amlin will become famous soon enough Amlin's Avatar
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    That still leaves over 45% of races without an odds on pop. Successful punters don't bet on every race. Some even let a meeting go by without placing a bet.

  9. #19
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    You mean 55% of races without an Odds On pop Kyle.
    The point is that at this early stage the tiered racing is making Zilch difference
    Successful punters do as you said but I don't think the aim of the scheme is to have punters bet less
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  10. #20
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Tonight we had another $1.10 fav at Bendigo, like the last one (in the very first race of the season) it was beaten
    Interesting that there was $16k in the Win Pool which was more than for the races either side of it (both of whom had $3 favs)
    The 3 shortest favourites of the season so far have been $1.04 (winner) and two $1.10 favs both at Bendigo and BOTH losers
    This may be one of those times that our lack of media coverage is a good thing because I can imagine the stories if that was to happen in the gallops
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