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Thread: Odds On Favourites under the VIC tiered system 2016-17

  1. #41
    Member Gelding David Martin will become famous soon enough
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    Hi Paul,
    One of the long term downward trends I spoke about in the public forums is the reduced number of foals born each year. There was a 23% decline for the 5 years to 2016. We can't fix that in 5 minutes, but what we could do was program races so that more of the current horses could compete. For the 6 months from May to October 2017, there was an average 6% more horses competing - they didn't magically appear. In order to maximise the benefit of that, we scheduled extra races. On some occasions that has meant small fields, but that in itself has given more people a chance to win prizemoney, i.e. instead of balloting out horses, we've been splitting races. The importance of punters and turnover is that they generate our revenue that we can use to re-invest back in the industry to promote an increase in breeding, but as I said we can't fix that in 5 minutes!
    Cheers, David

  2. #42
    Member Gelding David Martin will become famous soon enough
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    Hi Rick and Anne,


    I wasn't at HRV at the time, so don't know all the reasons for introducing tiered racing, but what I can say is that prizemoney that we have paid out for the first four months of this financial year (July to Oct) is $700k more than the same months of 2016. We have committed to programming races so that we can pay out $40m in prizemoney this year. That's never occurred in HRVs history. We have also committed to programming the same or more of the $10k races as last year. By the end of October, some of those $10k races haven't stood up because of Noms/Acceptances, so instead of just saying 'oh well, we programmed them', we are going to re-program more $10k races in the first half of 2018 in order to try and hit the target. If however owners/trainers don't nominate for those races, then we may well fall short of our desired and publicly stated target.


    To clarify, if a field is small, the prizemoney saved by not paying to a full field size remains in the total $40m pool, i.e. we will just utilise to run another race. Our overall goal remains the same, i.e. to exceed $40m in prizemoney.

    The broader issue of a desire to increase stakemoney levels is hindered by the decline in HRV market share of the Tabcorp JV. In 2009/10, HRV had an actual market share greater than 15%, and in all but one year from then, market share declined to the extent that by 2016 HRV's share had fallen to below 12%. That's over $5m in revenue every year that HRV is not receiving as it once did. That puts pressure on the whole industry, owners, breeders, trainers, drivers, HRV itself, country clubs, etc., etc. It's the prime reason why HRV lost money in 2016/17. And it's the main reason why we can't increase stakemoney levels. That's the bad news.


    The good news is that the current strategy is working to improve HRV's financial position and therefore our ability to support and grow the industry. And we've done so in a way that has sought to minimise the impact on the industry, i.e. we haven't reduced prizemoney levels, and we have instead increased the total prizemoney bucket of money to exceed $40m. Given the complexity of the problems faced, I can't see any other approach that would work, but I'm welcome to hear from anyone with an idea that will work within these constraints.

    Cheers, David

  3. #43
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year arlington will become famous soon enough
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    Wayne Hayes
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    Hi David,

    Another reason behind a change in system was some sections, participants/owners felt the higher assessed, perhaps classier, horse should race for more money. From memory, previously, in C class there was only around $400 difference in total stakes e.g. C0 raced for approx. $6300 and C5 for $6700.
    I'm not sure how that's panned out or is working under four tiers.

    During one of your roadshows it came up just two tiers, $5000 and $10,000 could possibly fit. Wondering if that was given any real consideration? More so the cons for not introducing those two tiers?
    I imagine it wouldn't just be the faster class horses racing for the higher stakes but the spread over the season would see them race for a higher gross.
    Was it brought up at a few roadshow meets? I attended the Shepparton greet, you know, the region and track that's ideal for one of the I D 18 heats. 'smiles'

  4. #44
    Member Gelding David Martin will become famous soon enough
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    Hi Wayne,


    Thanks for your input to this. The possibility for different stakemoney tiers, e.g. $4k and $8k came up at different public forums. There are a number of possibilities and we're happy to explore them to see if there's an approach that a majority of participants can agree with. An important aspect of any analysis on this will be the link to wagering/race and from that the revenue/race that HRV receives. As evident by the 2016/17 financial results, HRVs revenue streams have progressively fallen to the extent that an increase in the average stakemoney per race was not possible in 2017/18. So any model of 3500/5000/7/10 or 4/8 or 5/10 would need to factor that in. From my interactions with many people, there is a strong desire to retain the no penalty 3500 races. Most attention focuses on the $5000 races where a penalty is incurred, so as we prepare plans for 2018/19, that will be an area to review.


    One final curve ball is the modelling that HRA have undertaken on a National Handicapping system, which might present an alternative approach to evening out fields, etc.


    Cheers, David


    P.S. Yes, Shepparton is a good track, with a density of participants whcih are important factors when considering location of ID heats. Let's see what the club and local community put forward in their submission on 12 January.

  5. #45
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year arlington will become famous soon enough
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    Wayne Hayes
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    Hi David,

    Thanks for your reply.

    Quoting - From my interactions with many people, there is a strong desire to retain the no penalty 3500 races. And considering revenue/race with these, would make it an easier decision to remain.

    Of course, not forgetting the HRA National Handicapping initiative.

    Will have to start a countdown clock, 12 January.

    Cheers, Wayne

  6. #46
    Senior Member 2YO Bonnie will become famous soon enough
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    Anne Anderson
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    The issue of losing a country penalty for a race worth $5000 is a contentious issue with many owners ( me included ) as many horses are not eligible for the $3,500 races and yet a country penalty is lost for a paltry $1500. Also many hobby trainers are happy to race in the $3500 no penalty class and it provides more even racing for them. However if training fees are payable to professional trainers a win in a $5000 race plus a loss of penalty does not go very far.
    It is heartening to note that this issue is on your agenda David.
    Foal numbers are in decline and new owners need to be encouraged to invest .
    I have recently returned to Melbourne more often and now buy the Herald Sun most days. In today's Form Guide there are 4 Greyhound meetings in Victoria today ;Healesville, Bendigo, Geelong and Traralgon. ( 2 day and 2night) . All have 12 races and I would expect that there will be full fields of 8 as each has 2 emerg. That's 384 dogs ! and it's not a once a week occurrence either. Where do their owners come from?
    Furthermore all are on Sky 1 and 3 are also on Sky 2.
    How do we compete? Are we ever going to make inroads and have an impact on market share of the punting dollar ?

  7. #47
    Member Gelding David Martin will become famous soon enough
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    Hi Anne,


    Feedback in regards to the $5000 penalty races is fairly consistent, which is part of the reason we provided a $750 bonus for all $5000 races in Sept/Oct this year. This was well received as evident by the 5-6% increase in individual starters in these two months. As reported in the Harness Racer, with that initiative and many others, we have reversed the multi-year decline in wagering on our product. That's particularly evident with Corporate Bookmakers and some Interstate TABs. Unfortunately, amongst other factors, the 3-code funding model agreed in 2012 means that when the other codes (e.g. Greyhounds) run a lot more races, it does impact our market share. That said, it's not all about the number of races, as apart from additional races, there has also been an increase in wagering per race on our product this year. The key outcome is that HRV needs to be more profitable than last year's loss of $1.695m - and on current progress, we will be! That will enable HRV to better support the industry to grow and attract new owners. Events like the Inter-Dominion In Victoria in 2018 will also have a positive effect in terms of raising awareness in the general public, which should flow on to increased participation.


    Cheers, David

  8. #48
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year arlington will become famous soon enough
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    Wayne Hayes
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    Hi Anne and David,

    With the country Cups circuit upon us we lose the ability to run $3500 non penalty programs of a weekend. Whist there are R races slotted into C programs the bulk of the R races are programmed for Melton. I realise with Melton being our headquarters it can attract higher turnover.

    A couple of things;
    - one of the reason hobby trainers might like R programs is because of not needing to take a day of work midweek...for $3500 races. And yep, we're all in this together regarding $5000 penalties as hobby trainers also have horses ineligible for R races.
    - it would seem professional trainers love the $3500 non penalty as they flock to the Melton R programs, with their owners. But I do hope HRV continue to consider the bulk of hobbyists are located too far from Melton to warrant the expense of travelling there for a part of $3500.

    But we're all in this together, no matter whether we spend hundreds of thousands or just tens of thousands on the lottery of racing we expect equal and equitable consideration from HRV. The pro trainers along with the hobbyists contribute to the revenue per race of the $3500 non penalties.


    Cheers, Wayne

  9. #49
    Member Gelding David Martin will become famous soon enough
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    Hi Wayne,

    Great to have your input on this. In recent times, I and HRV have been criticised for having a focus on running too many $3500 races, so interesting to hear your viewpoint. It matches feedback I heard at Elmore yesterday, with people pleased that the meeting was all $3500 races resulting in larger stables focusing on Ballarat and other meetings, leaving hobbyists to have a chance to win at Elmore. One participant was particularly pleased to win a rug for the first time in 30 years!

    As you say, HRVs role is to strive to achieve an equitable approach for everyone in the industry. In regards to hobbyists, we have increased the number of $3500 races, introduced supplementary races, created the 2.02 mile rate (and in Jan 2018 the 2.01 mile rate) races, programmed races for trainers with 2 or less wins in the prior season, and provided a $750 bonus for any winner of a $3500 or $5000 race in Sept/Oct (which is typically when some of the larger stables take a break). I'll have a look at the location and timing of upcoming $3500 races and see if there's more we can do, as they need to be spread across the state. Whilst they're not the perfect solution, hobbyists can nominate for Supplementary races. If we get 7 or 8 (or more) nominations of a similar standard (at any of R, C or M class), then we will run those supplementary races. Since the 6th of March, we've run 98 Supplementary races, one of which occurred as a R class race at Elmore yesterday. Total prizemoney for those 98 races is $433k. These are races that otherwise were not programmed and horses that wouldn't have run that day.

    You are absolutely right that we're all in this together. We need hobbyists AND pro-trainers. We know everyone is doing it tough, which is why we have implemented the initiatives listed above and others that are intended to do as much for everyone as we can afford at this time. The input of yourself, Anne and others is important as we continue to turn around the performance of our industry.

    Cheers, David

  10. #50
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year Amlin will become famous soon enough Amlin's Avatar
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    Will be interested to see how the stand alone Monday meets in Vic fare when the gallops start taking a few of these days off.

    I do note that Melton has been slotted in for a night meet on Feb 12 when Warragul races that afternoon, I think Warragul will really struggle to get "non local" entries on that day.

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