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Thread: Odds On Favourites under the VIC tiered system 2016-17

  1. #81
    Senior Member 2YO Showgrounds will become famous soon enough
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    Quote Originally Posted by arlington View Post
    Am wondering how hard it was for interstaters to find prep races for the Oaks.
    The Ballarat Oaks trial didn't get up because of lack of noms? Albeit PBD/3C, $15000 not enough inducement? Seems strange. Being manual selection HRV didn't accept 3C0's...?
    Over the ditch, connections had considered bringing NZ's best filly, Elle Mac, over for the Vic Oaks - simply because of lack of suitable races. Her last start, winning at Addington, was on 16 March yet her next race against her own age and sex is the Nevele R Fillies final on 11 May.

    Either wait 8 weeks between starts or run her in a Free for All! No other options for her.

    Race programming is somewhat of a black art, but any administrator who claims that "we are on top of it" has never owned a top filly and lacks any concept of the difficulty of keeping them racing.

  2. #82
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by arlington View Post
    Am wondering how hard it was for interstaters to find prep races for the Oaks.
    The Ballarat Oaks trial didn't get up because of lack of noms? Albeit PBD/3C, $15000 not enough inducement? Seems strange. Being manual selection HRV didn't accept 3C0's...?
    Passion Delight arrives via the SA Oaks and Port Pirie Derby (a month ago)

    My Sweetchilliphilly, Major Occasion and Soho Burning Love via the Bathurst Gold Tiara (it will be 3wks between runs)

    Ideal Pleasure via a Menangle C0 (a fortnight)

    Arts Treasure via a Menangle C0-1 (a week)

    Fame Assured, Imprincessgemma, and Aqua Miss via the NSW Oaks (nearly 2mths ago)

    Delilaah via a Newcastle C0 (a fortnight)
    The Thin Green Line - Supporting the Rangers who protect the world's endangered animals against poachers

  3. #83
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    R10 Kilmore tonight a $7k C0 only a field of 6 !!!!
    Did the 3yo's scare them off ????
    The small field were ALL 3yo's

    http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...ic#KIC17041804
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  4. #84
    Member Filly Bonnie will become famous soon enough
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bonnie View Post
    Wonderful to see 31 nominations for the Oaks Heats on Saturday night. Simple conditions : ' 3 year old fillies RBD ' . No discrimination against last start winners, no extra conditions , just 3 year old fillies racing each other ! We won't have to nominate 4 times before our filly gets a run this week due to lack of nominations ( and that includes C0 and C1 mixed sex races ) Maybe something that HRV could try more of .
    I must have been dreaming to think that we might get a reduction in discrimination against last start winners / extra conditions. HRV have advised there will be a trial of preferential barrier draws ( PBD ' s) for all races during the month of July 2018 , with the exception of races conducted as part of a futurities series or programmed feature races which have been previously advertised as Radom barrier draw. A range of PBD mechanisms will be utilised ,including dollars won last 4 and dollars won last two starts in a bid to reduce the number of short priced favourites . Owners spending $2000-$2500 on training fees per month receive very little consideration in the decision making process . I have also noticed recently that some of the $7000 races have extended nominations and are not standing up which is a grave concern.

  5. #85
    Member Filly Bonnie will become famous soon enough
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    After a three year old has won 2 races they automatically assessed as a 3C2 CO.and there are very limited races programmed for them. They have nowhere to go except into C0 races and C1 etc if they win further races. Many owners have complained about racing 3 year olds coming through but where do they go ? As a consequence 3 year olds are barred from many C0/ C1 races with the restriction ; 4 year old and older ; further adding to the angst and frustration of owners attempting to race their young horses. There was a comment earlier about Sheez All Rock racing in a C1 . She would have needed a hit out before the Oaks heats , again I ask where else would she go
    http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...ic#KIC17041804[/QUOTE]

  6. #86
    Senior Member Stallion Danno is a jewel in the rough
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bonnie View Post
    I must have been dreaming to think that we might get a reduction in discrimination against last start winners / extra conditions. HRV have advised there will be a trial of preferential barrier draws ( PBD ' s) for all races during the month of July 2018 , with the exception of races conducted as part of a futurities series or programmed feature races which have been previously advertised as Radom barrier draw. A range of PBD mechanisms will be utilised ,including dollars won last 4 and dollars won last two starts in a bid to reduce the number of short priced favourites . Owners spending $2000-$2500 on training fees per month receive very little consideration in the decision making process . I have also noticed recently that some of the $7000 races have extended nominations and are not standing up which is a grave concern.
    Unfortunately Anne, many of our handicapping problems are stemming from a smaller pool of available horses combined with the unenviable task of our handicappers to continue to provide evenly balanced fields that will encourage punters to invest on as many as possible chances in each race.

    This problem has been growing for quite a while and is certainly not restricted to 3yo's good, poor or ordinary, one the one hand the drop back clause has assisted in holding more horses in the pool, but to the detrimental effect that too many horses are finding it impossible to be viable at a C1 front because they are meeting horses that were once C4,5 & 6 that have lost a bit of form....big ask for a horse that was maiden 2 starts ago to meet a horse that was once a potential city performer.

    Our Game is shrinking due to many factors, one of which is out pricing itself, the returns to owners Vs their costs have gotten completely out of kilter over the last 35 years compared to our competitors, the gallopers and dogs.

    Personally I think it is unfathomable that some Stallion owners believe the fees they are asking are anywhere near sustainable in the current market, they will obviously get support from the bigger end of town, but only from those that expect a return at the yearling sales, so they are restricting their own marketplace right there and of course whinging about sale prices. At what stage do you think the commercial breeders will come to grips with the damage their short term, self serving lobbying and influencing of State and National bodies has done to the overall health of Harness Racing in Australia?

    Placing horses of all classes to their best advantage is getting more and more difficult for EVERYONE with all classes of horses in every area/region. What the game desperately needs is a realistic vision back to growth for the whole game, in particular the grass roots regional racing because that is where new involvement more often starts than anywhere else. The "event" and "carnival" advertising for any event is great to see, but it rarely leads to more than a one night stand.

    Time for everyone to think and act more wholistically, rather than for their personal interests, the cannibalisation is getting to the bare bones and there is nowhere else to turn.


    cheers,


    dan

  7. #87
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year Amlin will become famous soon enough Amlin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danno View Post
    Unfortunately Anne, many of our handicapping problems are stemming from a smaller pool of available horses combined with the unenviable task of our handicappers to continue to provide evenly balanced fields that will encourage punters to invest on as many as possible chances in each race.

    This problem has been growing for quite a while and is certainly not restricted to 3yo's good, poor or ordinary, one the one hand the drop back clause has assisted in holding more horses in the pool, but to the detrimental effect that too many horses are finding it impossible to be viable at a C1 front because they are meeting horses that were once C4,5 & 6 that have lost a bit of form....big ask for a horse that was maiden 2 starts ago to meet a horse that was once a potential city performer.

    Our Game is shrinking due to many factors, one of which is out pricing itself, the returns to owners Vs their costs have gotten completely out of kilter over the last 35 years compared to our competitors, the gallopers and dogs.

    Personally I think it is unfathomable that some Stallion owners believe the fees they are asking are anywhere near sustainable in the current market, they will obviously get support from the bigger end of town, but only from those that expect a return at the yearling sales, so they are restricting their own marketplace right there and of course whinging about sale prices. At what stage do you think the commercial breeders will come to grips with the damage their short term, self serving lobbying and influencing of State and National bodies has done to the overall health of Harness Racing in Australia?

    Placing horses of all classes to their best advantage is getting more and more difficult for EVERYONE with all classes of horses in every area/region. What the game desperately needs is a realistic vision back to growth for the whole game, in particular the grass roots regional racing because that is where new involvement more often starts than anywhere else. The "event" and "carnival" advertising for any event is great to see, but it rarely leads to more than a one night stand.

    Time for everyone to think and act more wholistically, rather than for their personal interests, the cannibalisation is getting to the bare bones and there is nowhere else to turn.


    cheers,


    dan
    There were a lot more in it when they were running 2:08!

  8. #88
    Member Filly alphastud will become famous soon enough
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    Hi Dan, I was typing a reply to Anne and saw your post. Good points however I disagree re Studs. We have some overlap however here's my thoughts anyway. Thanks,

    -------------

    Hi Anne,

    I see your point and it seems that any of us would feel the same frustration if we had a similarly talented 3yo.

    Why is the handicapping this way and what strategy does it support?

    I think that handicapping has become such a challenge because:
    1. there is a disproportionate focus on the punter vs owners, breeders and trainers as customers.
    2. of our current beliefs around how we can generate betting and other revenue.
    3. of the racehorse population

    It seems that current handicapping is supporting average horses with greater opportunities over elite horses such as yours.

    Some of HRV’s key strategic initiatives for 2017/18 are to :
    “Encourage smaller training operations to remain and others to re-join”
    “Encourage retention of horses with less capability”
    https://www.thetrots.com.au/about-hrv/strategic-plan/

    I have a competitive 3yo that hasn’t won a race. He’s placed 2nd twice and 3rd thrice and rated 1:56 as a 2yo and 3yo and so he’s not hopeless. However, he has little to no chance of winning 1 race if he competes with an elite 3yo such as yours. The flow on effect is that I would miss out on around $6,000 in NSW Breeders and Owners bonuses. (Money that I re-invest into breeding etc. )

    So then, is it better to support the minority or the majority of customers to take more prizemoney for the longer term growth and sustainability of harness racing?

    I don’t know what’s right Anne and I hope that there are more opportunities for your horse soon. (Preferably after I’ve won the 1st race with my 3yo)

    I’d like to know the following if anyone can help?
    1. how are we measuring the success of the current strategy (for any state)
    2. how are we performing against our key performance indicators?
    3. what percentage of 2 and 3yo have won (i) 0 races, (ii) 1 race and (iii) 1+ races

    Thanks,
    Last edited by alphastud; 04-19-2018 at 01:56 AM.

  9. #89
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Good questions Richard, I know of others who have been asking 1 & 2
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  10. #90
    Member Gelding David Martin will become famous soon enough
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    Great discussion tonight everyone. Richard, I'll respond to your points if I may.


    You are correct that the HRV strategy is about ensuring we give everyone and every horse a chance to be a part of our industry. We have implemented a number of initiatives that demonstrate our desire to retain existing trainers, drivers, owners and horses, in what are clearly challenging times for our industry. As explained at the public forums in 2017, we need all levels of our industry for it to be successful.


    Some of our measures of success relate to the level of horse participation (up 3% over the last 12 months), the number of races (up 4% over the last 12 months - which equates to 109 more winners of a race than the prior 12 months), turnover generated (up approx 10% over the last 12 months) and ultimately profitability of our industry that will enable us to better support participants and clubs into the future. Beyond that, we have flagged our desire to start work on the infrastructure needed to retain and attract the next generation of participants. There's some big challenges within all of that, not the least being the multi-year decline in foal numbers that is being discussed on another social media platform.


    I understand Anne's frustration, but in comparison to both gallops and dogs, harness racing has too many short priced favourites. If a PBD approach can help to reduce that and level the playing field, then we must explore that.


    Cheers, David

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