APG SALES Sydney aand Melbourne

[Messenger]

Hi its Mark here, as a past trainer I am absolutely certain that I would rather walk out to work one Bettors Delight than a dozen of any of the progeny of the 2nd tier stallions . As an owner I would much rather have my trainer tell me that my one Art Major is going really good than he tell me my dozen 2nd tier stallion progeny are going ok. As a breeder I would much rather put those thousands of hours into one Mach Three yearling than a dozen of the 2nd tier stallion progeny because those three sires are winners. But stupid
me went to two new sires!!! I fully intend to go & have a brain transplant because I am an idiot.

I think you're just guilty of bargain hunting Mark, most of us cannot resist a bargain - or should I say "what we thought was great value"

[alphastud]

Thanks Pat and I understand some of your frustrations having spoken with many breeders, owners etc.

Pat - Are you only breeding to sell at an APG sale? If so, then stallions such as Western Terror and American Ideal have good sales results (so far) compared to their service fees.
Sportswriter? He had good results in the Melbourne sale however fell flat in Sydney. Was this due different mare quality? Sportswriter performed strongly as a 2YO sire in the 2016 season. Mark Purdon is probably the best in yearling selection and has acquired 2 x Sportswriters from the recent yearling sales in NZ.

Tony - The industry can change buyer preference, the impact of top stallions, the demand for other stallions and therefore market forces by changing factors including the racing program, incentives etc. I think that this was where David James was heading. Other stallions can emerge under an alternate system however won't in it's current form.

Mark - Many of us run through the same process. In 2015, we bred to a few unproven stallions and have the same concerns as you. We probably won't make that mistake again if our intention is to keep their progeny. To follow some thinking by Ray Chaplin and others, I want to stack more odds of winning in my favour at every step and we're not doing that with an unproven stallion. History shows same and I can give you countless examples. Which new or recently new stallion is going to beat the results of McArdle, Western Terror, Badlands etc. Beyond their immediate progeny, these stallions have also left mares with +$1Million dollar progeny.

As to your 1 Bettors strategy then I don't agree. Sure, if it's the right cross and Bettors has proven results in that mare's family then yes. If it's not or there isn't good history, then a service to Bettors is too expensive for that kind of risk for me. They call the Bettors x In The Pocket a "golden cross". One data program shows this cross running at 13% of +$100,000 winners. Well did you know that the Badlands Hanover x In The Pocket cross is running at 17% of +$100,000 winners? If all things were equal, then you could have had 7 x Badlands Hanover services for 1 x Bettors in 2016. I'd definitely gamble on the 7 x In The Pocket x Badlands ahead of your 1 x Bettors based on those stats. I can give you other examples too.

Thanks

[Fan of Jate]

"Rock n roll heaven cant produce a colt".

(Post moved from Odds and Ends)
1.49.5 not quick enough?




What , you jagged one at last??

[Toohard]

"Rock n roll heaven cant produce a colt".

(Post moved from Odds and Ends)
1.49.5 not quick enough?




What , you jagged one at last??

Heaven Rocks goes ok too. Surely have to give them more than 2 years before can make that judgement?

[Fan of Jate]

It's been more than 2 years and the USA record is not that good either hence why I said that. Dollars won is what the horse is measured by and it has not happened. Just quoting a fast time at the fastest track in the world means not much in my opinion. It cost $8000 for this stallion which was part of my post, too expensive. I have used this stallion as well so not completely against the horse.

[eliteblood]

Sorry I can't format this to make it easier to read, but below is some data I have collated from the Melbourne and Sydney sales results. It only includes sold lots, passed in lots have had to be ignored because there is no way of knowing what they may have made. I know that there are also a lot of generalisations in the comments below, but I think they are valid despite that.
I have listed for most of the prominent stallions, the number of yearlings sold, the average price, the number sold for > $30k, the highest priced yearling.

Sire No Sold Ave >$30K % > $30k Highest

A Rocknroll Dance USA 17 $15,417 1 6% $38,000
American Ideal USA 11 $46,182 7 64% $115,000
Art Major USA 58 $38,534 31 53% $200,000
Betterthancheddar USA 8 $23,063 2 25% $32,500
Bettors Delight USA 29 $61,828 23 79% $245,000
Courage Under Fire NZ 4 $15,250 0 0% $21,000
Four Starzzz Shark CA 3 $12,333 0 0% $16,000
Mach Three CA 22 $37,273 13 59% $130,000
Pet Rock USA 14 $18,000 2 14% $40,000
Rock N Roll Heaven USA 28 $21,393 6 21% $85,000
Roll With Joe USA 12 $14,667 1 8% $43,000
Somebeachsomewhere USA 4 $66,875 3 75% $97,500
Sportswriter USA 26 $15,385 3 12% $45,000
Well Said (US) 6 $38,833 3 50% $105,000
Western Terror USA 13 $18,769 1 8% $31,000


As someone who breeds to sell, I have selected $30,000 as a happy result. The exercise has been worthwhile and a reasonable profit has been achieved. This is very much generalised because service fee obviously changes the profit result in every case as does each breeders individual rearing and preparation cost situation.

It highlights again to me what we all know, it is currently all about Bettors Delight, Art Major, American Ideal, Mach Three and SBSW.
It doesn't matter that Courage Under Fire, Four Starzzz Shark, Western Terror, Sportswriter, etc. etc. (include Badlands Hanover and McArdle) have had levels of success in the past or what your individual opinions are of these stallions because, if you are breeding to sell, the buyers are the sole judges in this exercise.

I agree with Mark's line of argument. I would much rather breed one Bettor's Delight and know that 79% of his yearlings can be sold at a profit at an average price of $61,828 than breed seven by Badlands Hanover or McArdle (or CUF, FSS, Sportswriter, ......................) that would almost surely produce a bottom line loss. Sorry Richard.
The playing field might level out a bit when Bettors Delight is gone but at the moment it is extremely difficult for both new stallions (like A Rock N Roll Dance and Pet Rock) and those 2nd tier stallions that have been successful but are no longer in the spotlight.

I was especially surprised that A Rock N Roll Dance was not better supported. A good racehorse, very well bred, yet only 1 yearling sold for more than $24,000.

Maybe we need to bring back limited stallion books to try and restore some order ????

[alphastud]

Hi Trevor, thanks for your reply.

I understood Mark as breeding to race his own progeny and not sell at an APG type sale. And so, my argument was based on the assumption of him breeding to race as opposed to Pat who was breeding to sell at an APG sale.

If your breeding to keep the progeny and race then I'm assuming that your goal is to increase your chances of breeding an elite racehorse for less cost.

So, I based my argument on 2 assumptions.
1. Mark breeding to race the progeny (in my example, the progeny of an In The Pocket mare (ITP))
2. That you want to breed an elite racehorse (+$100,000 winner) for the least cost possible.

Since the data shows that you have a much stronger chance of an elite Badlands racehorse (out of an ITP mare) (17% vs 13% +100,000 winnners) against Bettors, then the I'd breed to Badlands. Take into account the service fee prices; Badlands was advertised at $2,500 versus Bettors at $17,600.

Let me know what you think based on the two assumptions that I've worked from.

Yes, I mostly agree with you in regards to breeding to sell at an APG sale and have stated as such previously.

[trish]

Mark starting breeding to sell a few years ago Richard. His 1st one was an American Ideal/Vanston Lady filly that sold at the APG last year. He breed 4 last year but sadly 2 died, not a good year. The other 2 colts will go to APG next year, or he will lease them out because of the sale results in Sydney. He has one mare booked to Bettors this year. The other mares are being retired or sold.

[trish]

Sorry I can't format this to make it easier to read, but below is some data I have collated from the Melbourne and Sydney sales results. It only includes sold lots, passed in lots have had to be ignored because there is no way of knowing what they may have made. I know that there are also a lot of generalisations in the comments below, but I think they are valid despite that.
I have listed for most of the prominent stallions, the number of yearlings sold, the average price, the number sold for > $30k, the highest priced yearling.

Sire No Sold Ave >$30K % > $30k Highest

A Rocknroll Dance USA 17 $15,417 1 6% $38,000
American Ideal USA 11 $46,182 7 64% $115,000
Art Major USA 58 $38,534 31 53% $200,000
Betterthancheddar USA 8 $23,063 2 25% $32,500
Bettors Delight USA 29 $61,828 23 79% $245,000
Courage Under Fire NZ 4 $15,250 0 0% $21,000
Four Starzzz Shark CA 3 $12,333 0 0% $16,000
Mach Three CA 22 $37,273 13 59% $130,000
Pet Rock USA 14 $18,000 2 14% $40,000
Rock N Roll Heaven USA 28 $21,393 6 21% $85,000
Roll With Joe USA 12 $14,667 1 8% $43,000
Somebeachsomewhere USA 4 $66,875 3 75% $97,500
Sportswriter USA 26 $15,385 3 12% $45,000
Well Said (US) 6 $38,833 3 50% $105,000
Western Terror USA 13 $18,769 1 8% $31,000


As someone who breeds to sell, I have selected $30,000 as a happy result. The exercise has been worthwhile and a reasonable profit has been achieved. This is very much generalised because service fee obviously changes the profit result in every case as does each breeders individual rearing and preparation cost situation.

It highlights again to me what we all know, it is currently all about Bettors Delight, Art Major, American Ideal, Mach Three and SBSW.
It doesn't matter that Courage Under Fire, Four Starzzz Shark, Western Terror, Sportswriter, etc. etc. (include Badlands Hanover and McArdle) have had levels of success in the past or what your individual opinions are of these stallions because, if you are breeding to sell, the buyers are the sole judges in this exercise.

I agree with Mark's line of argument. I would much rather breed one Bettor's Delight and know that 79% of his yearlings can be sold at a profit at an average price of $61,828 than breed seven by Badlands Hanover or McArdle (or CUF, FSS, Sportswriter, ......................) that would almost surely produce a bottom line loss. Sorry Richard.
The playing field might level out a bit when Bettors Delight is gone but at the moment it is extremely difficult for both new stallions (like A Rock N Roll Dance and Pet Rock) and those 2nd tier stallions that have been successful but are no longer in the spotlight.

I was especially surprised that A Rock N Roll Dance was not better supported. A good racehorse, very well bred, yet only 1 yearling sold for more than $24,000.


Maybe we need to bring back limited stallion books to try and restore some order ????

Great post Trevor & thanks for that summary, it tells a story. Mostly a sad one for the breeding industry with some of those stallions . I feel sorry for those who had a reserve on their yearling , that were passed in & still have to folk out 10% of the nominated reserve.
I also think $30k is a cut off point, if you sent a yearling to a preparer that cost can be huge, as are the other costs , APG entry ect you have to make that money or give up. It cost Mark over $700 just to attend the sale for those couple of days , you can not sleep in the car & look dapper like he thinks he did!!!! But honestly it costs taking into account the stallion price etc the breeder is doing it tough. Mark sold his American Ideal filly last year for $25 & he worked out that that was his break even mark.

[eliteblood]

Hi Trevor, thanks for your reply.

I understood Mark as breeding to race his own progeny and not sell at an APG type sale. And so, my argument was based on the assumption of him breeding to race as opposed to Pat who was breeding to sell at an APG sale.

If your breeding to keep the progeny and race then I'm assuming that your goal is to increase your chances of breeding an elite racehorse for less cost.

So, I based my argument on 2 assumptions.
1. Mark breeding to race the progeny (in my example, the progeny of an In The Pocket mare (ITP))
2. That you want to breed an elite racehorse (+$100,000 winner) for the least cost possible.

Since the data shows that you have a much stronger chance of an elite Badlands racehorse (out of an ITP mare) (17% vs 13% +100,000 winnners) against Bettors, then the I'd breed to Badlands. Take into account the service fee prices; Badlands was advertised at $2,500 versus Bettors at $17,600.

Let me know what you think based on the two assumptions that I've worked from.

Yes, I mostly agree with you in regards to breeding to sell at an APG sale and have stated as such previously.

Yes Richard, breeding to sell and breeding to keep are two totally different scenarios and I can't argue with the logics behind your proposition
EXCEPT THAT
Everything in my gut tells me that if I want to breed myself an elite racehorse (even if my mare is by ITP) then Bettors Delight would be my sire of first choice
Not saying you shouldn't but I personally don't place a lot of emphasis on crosses.