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Thread: Odds On Pops and Other Effects on Market Share

  1. #131
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Today I noticed that the favourites in the Trotters races do not offer much value - except that they have a pretty good success rate.
    I did not want to spend too much time on checking this observation so I only researched the Vic trots races this month
    So far we have had 28 trots races in May
    The longest price favourites have been $3.40 and $3.20
    There have been 13 Odds On faves, so this gait may need some careful consideration by HRV in their efforts to reduce Odds On pops
    17 out of 28 faves have won
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

  2. #132
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    I have been noticing how short Emma Stewart's go around so to substantiate it I thought I would list their starting odds here.
    I am only going to do it for her home state Vic and whenever she has 2 or more runners in a race, I will only be listing the shortest one.
    To keep everything in one place, I will come back and edit this post each day she has runners - I will use a new line for each day.

    June 1: $1.10, $1.30, $1.10 - 2/3 wins
    June 3: $3.10, $11.20, $2.30 2/3 wins (Metro)
    June 4: $2.90, $1.60, $1.90, $1.40, $2.30 3/5 wins
    June 7: $2.40, $1.20 1/2 wins

    June 9: $1.04, $1.70, $3.60, $1.70, $2.40 3.5/5 wins
    June 10: $4.30, $3.50, $3.60, $5.00, $2.40 3/5 wins (Metro) [1 winner was not her shortest runner]
    June 11: $1.60, $5.70, $1.80, $13.00, $1.50, $4.10, $8.60 2/7 wins

    June 15: $2.90, $1.30, $3.30, $1.20 2/4 wins
    June 16: $8.80, $8.90, $3.20 0/3 wins
    June 17: $4.60, $1.80, $1.10, $1.90, $1.90, $9.00, $1.40 3/7 wins
    June 18: $2.00, $1.40, $1.10 3/3 wins (Metro)

    June 24: $16.30, $1.50, $1.50, $26.80, $86.50, $2.90, $4.60, $3.10, $3.90, $1.40, $2.60, $14.00 5/12 wins (Metro)

    July 2: $3.90, $5.30, $2.00, $1.80, $1.50, 3/5 (Metro Gp1s)
    Last edited by Messenger; 07-03-2016 at 02:29 PM. Reason: Update
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

  3. #133
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    So the Stewart stable summary for week 1 is :

    8 wins from 13 races
    7 odds on faves
    Longest price runner $11.20 (stable pet Jadahson)
    2nd longest $2.90
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

  4. #134
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    So the Stewart stats update at the half month point is:

    18.5 wins from 34 races contested
    15 odds on faves (not all of these were winners)
    There have now been 2 of her runners start over $10
    Her number of odds on faves dropped considerably in the second week
    At the end of the month we will calculate the average starting price of her preferred runner
    (I say 'preferred' runner as we are only taking stats on her shortest starter when she has more than one in a race)
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

  5. #135
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    I will conclude my Stewart Stable stats after last night which I included as she had no other runners for the last week of June
    Her stats for a month were:

    34½ wins from 64 races (16 Metro wins!)
    27 odds on faves (42% of the races, I would not be surprised if this was below her average as we had some classy metro races this month)



    (details see Post 134 which I updated after each meet)
    Last edited by Messenger; 07-03-2016 at 02:44 PM.
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

  6. #136
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    It will be interesting to see how much difference Tiered Racing makes in the new season
    Tonight at Ballarat 8/9 races Odds On favs

    http://www.harness.org.au/meeting-re...A260716&ms=vic
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

  7. #137
    Senior Member Stallion Danno is a jewel in the rough
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    Can anyone tell me if the starting prices are correct for the 6th at Bankstown yesterday??? 8 starters, 4 of which are odds on and the longest priced starter under $8???


    Results - Race 6 BANKSTOWN 1 August 2016
    CANTERBURY BANKSTOWN CITY COUNCIL CUP 25TH OF AUGUST PACE Race code: BKC01081605 Stakes: $3,500 Gait: PACERS Class: R2 To R3. 1,740 METRES MOBILE STARTPl HorsePrize-
    money Row &
    BrTAB
    # Trainer Driver
    ( C = Concession )Mgn
    (m)Starting
    oddsStewards'
    Comments
    1WARNER Fr11W P DimechJ E Trainor (C,cl)$ 1.30 fav GS L SWAB BAY GELDING 6 by ART MAJOR USA out of JADES DREAM
    Owner(s): W P (Wayne) Dimech
    Breeder(s): J H (Jeremy) Trevor-Jones 2MORTENSON Sr28H A JamesH A James 3.40 $ 1.90 PRBT 3RODNEY STRIDES Fr22K J HayesC Geary (C,cl) 10.50 $ 1.30 fav 4THOMAS DYLAN Fr33P J HansonT P McCarthy 12.00 $ 1.80 PRBT GS 5UNDERDOG Sr17S WadeT McCracken (C,cl) 15.10 $ 5.80 D/R LOC 6FEARLESS LORD Fr66R ErrichielloD R Morris 17.40 $ 2.40 RAS 7WUNDER RANGER Fr44J J MuscatJ J Muscat 17.90 $ 7.50 PRBT D/F$200 UW 8KINGS AND GLORY Fr55D J FarrugiaN S Xuereb (C,cl) 22.30 $ 4.30 PRBT RAS G SD1T ScratchingsAll startedTrack Rating: GOODGross Time: 2:09:5Mile Rate: 1:59:8Lead Time: 9.0First Quarter: 30.7Second Quarter: 31.0Third Quarter: 29.0Fourth Quarter: 29.8Margins: 3.4m x 7.0m

    Go to races in this meeting: 1 2 3 4 5 6
    Last edited by Messenger; 08-02-2016 at 01:31 PM.

  8. #138
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    If you look at this link Dan you will see that the winner Warner was the only Odds On runner

    http://www.harness.org.au/meeting-re...sw#BKC01081605
    Last edited by Messenger; 08-02-2016 at 01:41 PM.
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

  9. #139
    Senior Member Stallion Danno is a jewel in the rough
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    That has changed during the morning Kev, as that page you supplied the link from was the same page I copied and pasted earlier..........

  10. #140
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    8 races at Melton tonight but only 3 of them had sufficient runners to pay 3 place divvies - this has to be a worry. Race 3 ended up with only 4 runners and I am not sure there was even a single place dividend looking at the TAB (but there was a massive $120 in the place pool)

    https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2016-08-05/MELTON/MLT/H/3

    That race was a turnover killer and Emma Stewart's $1.04 faves do not help - maybe we need to schedule her shorties to be Races 1&2 as these early races have easily the best turnover (even with a $1.20 fav in the first)
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

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