2023 Bendigo Cup, Maori Mile & Jason Grimson

[Messenger]

Both the pace and the trot $75k this year

The trot is a cracker and Rock N Roll Doo in the Cup makes it interesting - he has drawn 1 - I do not know whether this is a good thing or not

I can never remember whether Max Delight or Malcolms Rhythm is the fast beginner

It would not be advisable for Jason Grimson to win with Sicario in his first start for the stable

I don't really follow NSW and don't know Art Tutor and wonder why a horse who could only win 2/28 last season is down here

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fi...s/?mc=BN070123

[Showgrounds]

For Grimson to even consider running Sicario in the Cup smells more than my wheelie bid did after Christmas Day, with my apologies to the wheelie bin, because prawn she's are not a performance enhancing substance.

[Messenger]

The TAB is keeping Sicario very safe - he is 3rd favourite (!) at $8 and has come in from $10

Major Meister the stablemate is $3.40 having drifted from $3

RNRDoo has firmed from $2.25 into $2

[Showgrounds]

I confess to having been a long-tiime fan of Sicario, who had earned a quarter million before being bought by his Victorian owners as a 4yo. He fell just short of being a topliner in NZ but was highly competitive running 2nd in the Northern Derby, 3rd in the NZ Derby, won the Flying stakes and sat in the death outside millionaire Alta Orlando to win a FFA as a 3yo.

So, no slouch. A vastly superior performer when he arrived at Brent Lilley's stable compared with ID winners Boncel Benjamin, I Cast No Shadow and Cranbourne Cup winner Major Miester, pre-Jason Grimson. Here is the link to Sicario's race record pre-Lilley:

https://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gws/ws/r/...rSite&Arg=TRUE

He ran a shocker first up for Lilley but was super impressive winning the SA Cup a week later. Gradually, the ability he displayed when trained in NZ was diluted. In the subsequent four years he has gone from being a very nice horse, to a handy horse to just a horse. I blame his decline on any or all of the following assumptions:

1. The trainer's inability to place the horse in a field to its advantage; or
2. Too many owners who just like to see the horse race whenever they can; or
3. Continuing to put Chris Alford on the horse when his tactics seem to amount to taking a sit and hoping the rest of the field falls; or
4. The horse, like so many older ones, suffers from internal bleeding and cannot backup its races (which brings all four factors into play with the decision to run the horse I the Inter-Dominion series more peculiar).

So, following three second-last performances in the Inter, two of the owners have bought out the others and given a share to new trainer Grimson. Whether Nathan Jack is an improvement on Chris Alford remains to be seen but I reckon Grimson is a better trainer than Lilley. For one, he will get the old boy fitter. But would you be taking $8 in this field?

With natural improvement and a favourable draw I expect the horse to finish 4th to 6th place. Any better than that and, once again, I suspect unnatural force are at work.

This will be a must-watch race for many reasons.

[Messenger]

Thanks for giving us something interesting to ponder Trev
You have watched the horse and have a much better memory than me
I do note however that if you look at the Stewards Column for all his performances he would seem to have been given his chance by drivers
Here is the link to type Sicario into (direct links do not work)

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/horse-search/?search

I have never done any research on this so it could be true of all horses but it would seem that when he races in the first 5 he tends to finish in the first 5 (it does sound like something that could be generally true for most)
Drivers would not seem to have done too badly on him with him winning or placing 45% of the time

However 11 of his 23 wins came from his first 24 starts before going to Lilley for 12 wins from 84
We know very few horses keep up their juvenile strike rates but on those figures in hindsight you would probably have given another trainer a crack earlier

His worst patch of form has been these last 3 Inter heats - out of his depth? (Mind you he drew awfully in all 3)
Maybe we will see on Saturday

[Messenger]

Has Jason Grimson ever had a starter at Bendigo?
His career stats have him as 100% unplaced at Bendigo

[Messenger]

Rock N Roll Doo has a big campaign ahead of him, including the $1m NZ Grins

https://harnesslink.com/new-zealand/...race-by-grins/

[Messenger]

Mick Stanley cannot go around telling 2 different stories and be believed

“They are saying that it’s not an ideal draw for him as he doesn’t have the gate speed to hold the lead from the pole,” Stanley said.

“One night at Melton he held out a couple of fast beginners in Cherokee Joe and Spring In His Step from the pole, so there is gate speed there if needed."

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/art...o-gate-debate/


“For lots of horses it would be perfect, but it’s probably the one draw I didn’t want with him,” Stanley said.

“Of all his qualities, (early) gate speed isn’t one of them, not yet at least.

https://harnesslink.com/australia/ba...ck-n-roll-doo/

This is such a contradiction of quotes - the stewards should have a word to him

[Messenger]

Sicario is now into $5.50

[Messenger]

5 starts ago he was beaten by Bernie Winkle in a Claimer (and remember the four starts since have been 11,11,11,7 )
Bernie is in the Cup too - he is $126