Interesting Stats to be found on the new HRA site

[Messenger]

Now that clicking on the 'Track' tab at the top of any Fields page gives us much more than just the Track details and Records, I thought I would highlight here (and others please join me) information that I find interesting, which I hope others will find interesting to too.

[Messenger]

Before tonight's meet the Terang page told me that they had had 95 races in the last 12mths

The top 5 trainers for the track had won 50% of these races
Marg Lee 16, Matt Craven 10, Emma Stewart 10, David Drury 6, Brad Hunt 5

For Matt Craven you would say it is to be expected as he had 72 starters

Emma Stewart only had 15 starters for her 10 wins = an incredible 66% winning strike rate
(she also had 3 seconds, and 1 third, so only 1 unplaced)

and David Drury's 6 wins from 14 starters for 43% is nothing to be sneezed at

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/tracks/terang/

[Danno]

Stats sure can highlight some things you would find hard to believe if the stats were not there to prove it, take Craig Cross in NSW for example, he had no starters as a trainer from 2011 through to the 2015/16 season inclusive, that's a big fat zero of starters leave alone anything else, then he smashes what statistically seems to be his first season as a trainer in 2016/17 with 119 winners from 559 starters and over $1.2M in stakes!!!

Nobody would believe that would they, unless the statistics are there to prove it hey?

[Messenger]

Greg, definitely doesn't believe it Dan

http://www.harnessracingforum.com/showthread.php?10043-The-Mockery-of-Transferring-Trainers

[Messenger]

I am not sure that it will be worth continuing with the stats observations until I find out whether we can rely on the figures.

The reason for my concern is that Terang's barrier stats have been updated after last night with it now showing 103 races in the last 12 months

BUT the Trainer/Driver stats have NOT so even though Lee, Craven and Stewart won 5 races between them last night their figures have not changed so if I was doing % stats - they would be up the spout

I just checked Melton too and although there were some changes to both the barrier stats and the Trainer/Driver Stats after last Thursday's meet (I had taken a copy of them beforehand), I am not sure they compute.
If they are really updating for every meet and covering the previous 12mths then a weekly track like Melton is going to have their oldest week subtracted and their newest week added on, which generally (but not always) means one meet on and one meet off so for Emma Stewart's stats to remain exactly the same (which they have) at:

Emma Stewart 254 starters 65 wins 36 seconds 38 thirds 31 fourths $1,978,940 prizemoney

even though she had 3 starters for 2 wins and 1 third on Thursday, she would have had to have the exact same results (and prizemoney to match!) shaved from her oldest meet at the track taken off (the meet just over 12mths ago) - some coincidence especially for the prizemoney

Sorry for the convoluted explanation but if we are going to have stats they have to be accurate or else they are leading us astray (and I want to send this to HRV/HRA)

[Messenger]

First of all, I should have posted this long ago (apologies) - after contact with HRV I have been convinced that the Track barrier stats are updating correctly

I had reason to look at them for tonight's Bendigo meet as a horse in my blackbook is racing there tonight
I noticed that a serious ex NZer has come down from NSW for the race but wondered if the 5 barrier might be a bit wide
Thanks to the new site I see that the 5 barrier is the 'winningest' barrier at Bendigo
Stuffed that up - he is coming from 6 which has nowhere near as good a record but is the equal of 1,2,3

One improvement I would love to see is: these stats divided into distances as we know most tracks mostly race over 2 distances and the different starting positions could affect barrier success
I am probably asking a bit much and the 2 distances most tracks use are generally the same distance from the release point and the upcoming bend
(I will keep class/age records at the top of my wishlist instead :p)

[KTQ]

Great minds think alike Kev. I did up an excel chart for WA tracks. Interesting to see some country tracks have wider winningest barriers. Love me some stats. More please!

814

[Messenger]

Interesting stuff Katie
20% for Barrier 1 at GP stands out and is much a higher percentage than the best barriers at say Melton or Menangle. Of course it is the size of the track but still it is still about double what you would like at a fair track

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/tracks/

(you have to convert to %'s your self I am afraid - Hey HRA you could tweak your program to do that quite easily)

[Messenger]

When are barrier stats a valuable indicator and when are they just an anomaly?

Maybe the 58 race sample for Stawell is not big enough but to get a bigger sample HRV will have to change their software to give us a longer sample than 12 months.
(This could be a good idea for tracks with even less meetings than Stawell the stats become almost irrelevant)

Looking at Stawell's stats on offer today

Barriers 1 & 2 are surprisingly worse than merely winning in turn, roughly between 1/11 and 1/15
Barrier 3 is very good winning better than 1/6
Barrier 4 is terrible winning 1/29
Barrier 5 is a standout winning better than 1/4
Barrier 6 is on the average 1/9
Barrier 7 is a shocker 1/18
Barrier 8 is good 1/6 (inside 2nd line and no doubt the sprint lane is a factor)
Barrier 9 is pretty much on the average with 1/9
Barrier 10 is 1/11 but the sample is small while the sample for barrier 11 is too small

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/tracks/stawell/

Some of these don't really compute in my book - I think we need bigger samples HRV

[Plarecturs]

thanks for sharing, i haven't checked the steroids (https://suppsforlife.to/) site for a while now. really interesting in finding out what going on. Messenger thanks for all your posts and support, as a newcomer, i really appreciate!

[Messenger]

I discovered a weird one tonight
If you have the Fields page open for Kilmore tonight and go up to the Track Details tab you will get the new format with all the barrier stats etc
BUT if you have Form Guide page open and go up to the Track Details tab you only get the old format - no barrier stats etc